Economy

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2024/06/21/the-scottish-election-my-conclus…

Political Parties

Type of Resource:

Video

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

30mins 15 seconds

Fast Facts

A video interviewing leading politicians from the SNP, the Scottish Greens and Alba about their economic approaches to the forthcoming General Election proved to be an interesting experience.

The National gave Murphy the opportunity to interview Drew Hendry of the SNP, Neale Hanvey of Alba and Ross Greer of the Scottish Greens.

More details

Alba and the Greens are not going to win seats in this election. The SNP undoubtedly will. They are going to be a vital part of the parliamentary opposition to a massive Labour majority in the next Westminster parliament. Voting for them is essential, but I cannot help but say that if I could do so I would whilst simultaneously wishing they were much more convincing when it comes to economics, and other issues.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Political parties

General elections

Language English

Update: what big policy challenges face Scotland’s next first minister?

Isla Scott — Sun, 23 Jun 2024 12:51:25 +0000

Update: what big policy challenges face Scotland’s next first minister?

Primary Author or Creator:

Stuart Mcintyre

Isla Scott Sun, 23/06/2024 - 13:51

Publisher:

Economics Observatory

Date Published:

10/05/24

Category:

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/update-what-big-policy-challenges-face-sco…

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister has recently stepped down. His successor, John Swinney, faces a number of economic challenges related to growth, an ageing population, regional inequality and the transition to net zero.

More details

Growing the economy

Overall economic growth in Scotland has been weak since the global financial crisis of 2007-09. But a key difference with the rest of the UK has been much slower population growth: on a per capita basis, GDP has grown by more in Scotland than in the UK as a whole.

While many of the short- to medium-run economic levers that can shape the economy are not devolved, powers that are key to shaping the economy over the longer term are.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

How would an independent Scotland borrow?

Isla Scott — Wed, 19 Jun 2024 10:24:31 +0000

How would an independent Scotland borrow?

Primary Author or Creator:

Thomas Pope

Isla Scott Wed, 19/06/2024 - 11:24

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Teresa Soter

Publisher:

Institute for Government

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

Finance

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/borr…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

41pp

Fast Facts

This report examines how Scotland would
borrow if it were to become independent.
It looks at how much it could borrow
consistently, based on the experience of
other advanced economies.

More details

It explores the main factors that would determine how
expensive it would be for Scotland to borrow,
and the steps an independent Scotland could
take to reassure investors and limit increases
in debt interest costs.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Government finance

Scottish government borrowing

Language English

Swinney must move beyond old orthodoxies

Isla Scott — Wed, 12 Jun 2024 11:16:13 +0000

Swinney must move beyond old orthodoxies

Primary Author or Creator:

Laurie Macfarlane

Isla Scott Wed, 12/06/2024 - 12:16

Publisher:

Sceptical Scot

Date Published:

18/05/24

Category:

https://sceptical.scot/2024/05/swinney-must-move-beyond-old-orthodoxies/

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

John Swinney, Scotland’s new first minister, faces no shortage of challenges. Lurking behind many of them lies a common cause: an economy that is not working.

More details

Data published this week shows that Scotland’s economy shrank by 0.3% in February, leaving the country on the brink of recession. Economic downturns rarely spell good news for voters or politicians. But if the new first minister is to turn Scotland’s economy around, they must look far beyond immediate GDP figures. In reality, Scotland’s economy is facing a profound series of interlinked challenges. Nowhere are the failings of the prevailing economic model more evident than in peoples’ paypackets.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

How are the UK’s devolved nations faring ahead of the general election?

Isla Scott — Wed, 12 Jun 2024 10:19:01 +0000

How are the UK’s devolved nations faring ahead of the general election?

Primary Author or Creator:

Robyn Smith

Isla Scott Wed, 12/06/2024 - 11:19

Publisher:

Economics Observatory

Date Published:

03/05/24

Category:

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-are-the-uks-devolved-nations-faring-ah…

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

Over the current parliamentary term, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have each faced unique challenges as well as common ones, such as rising economic inactivity. Measures of output, productivity and the labour market indicate where the devolved nations could improve their economic prospects.

More details

Each of the three devolved nations has had a new leader in the past year, with the appointments of Vaughn Gething in Wales and of Michelle O'Neill in Northern Ireland, where the parties reached a power-sharing agreement following a long period without a government. Scotland will soon have another new first minister following the recent resignation of Humza Yousaf after just over a year in the role.

The devolved nations all face significant economic challenges, which are likely to inform voters’ choices at the time of the election. This article looks at these challenges and how the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish economies have fared in recent years.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Independence lessons: How Ireland built a strong economy

Isla Scott — Mon, 10 Jun 2024 09:41:45 +0000

Independence lessons: How Ireland built a strong economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Isla Scott Mon, 10/06/2024 - 10:41

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Date Published:

07/06/24

Category:

https://www.believeinscotland.org/independence_lessons_how_ireland_built_a_stro…

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

Ireland is a stable and prosperous independent country. It has used the powers of independence to build a strong and diverse economy.

More details

[Ireland] has long been portrayed as the UK’s poor neighbour but much of that due to the economic exploitation of Ireland by the UK until the early 20th century.

Ireland enjoys the unique situation of being part of both the Common Travel Zone and the EU single market. It has an educated, dynamic workforce which makes it attractive to investment. All nations have issues and improvement needs, of course they do, but Ireland has used its economic prosperity in ways that mean it now outperforms the UK in most metrics that measure the health and happiness of the population.

Of course, Ireland and Scotland are different in many ways - but it is instructive to look at Ireland’s success as a small independent nation.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Irish economy

Language English

Scottish economy expected to improve after slow growth in 2023

Isla Scott — Mon, 03 Jun 2024 10:20:58 +0000

Scottish economy expected to improve after slow growth in 2023

Primary Author or Creator:

Mairi Spowage

Isla Scott Mon, 03/06/2024 - 11:20

Publisher:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Date Published:

07/02/24

Category:

https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy-expected-to-improve-after-slow-gr…

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

The economists are forecasting growth of 0.6% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Whilst these forecasts are slightly weaker than previous forecasts, it still points to improving conditions in the economy over the course of this year.

More details

The wider assessment of business and consumer sentiment shows steady improvement as we move into 2024. While still weaker than pre-pandemic levels in general, this improvement is consistent with the cautious optimism displayed in these forecasts today.

Analysis in the Commentary this quarter includes a detailed look at the recovery from the shock of the pandemic of different sectors in the Scottish economy, highlighting a number of differentials between the performance of sectors in Scotland compared to the UK as a whole.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

On Surprises, Strategy, the Economy and What Comes Next for Scottish Independence

Isla Scott — Thu, 30 May 2024 09:29:44 +0000

On Surprises, Strategy, the Economy and What Comes Next for Scottish Independence

Primary Author or Creator:

Iain Docherty

Isla Scott Thu, 30/05/2024 - 10:29

Publisher:

Political Quarterly

Date Published:

21/09/23

Category:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.13312

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Nicola Sturgeon's resignation as First Minister and leader of the SNP has thrown Scottish politics into flux. But beneath the superficial media coverage and frenetic party politics that followed her resignation, the fundamentals of the constitutional debate remain unaltered. One of these fundamentals, the extent to which Scotland is better or worse off being part of the UK political economy, is rarely debated in the depth it deserves.

More details

The parlous state of the UK economy and, in particular, the deeply entrenched territorial inequality that results from its extreme core-periphery structure that safeguards the economic dominance of London and South East England, holds the potential for a surprise shift in the debate over independence to emerge.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Politics

Constitution

Language English

Now is the time to deliver a new era for Scotland’s fishing fleet

Isla Scott — Wed, 29 May 2024 10:35:07 +0000

Now is the time to deliver a new era for Scotland’s fishing fleet

Primary Author or Creator:

Struan Stevenson

Isla Scott Wed, 29/05/2024 - 11:35

Publisher:

Think Scotland

Date Published:

23/09/23

Category:

https://thinkscotland.org/2023/09/now-is-the-time-to-deliver-a-new-era-for-scot…

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

ROCKETING ENERGY PRICES, exacerbated by the illegal war in Ukraine, have hit people and businesses across the UK, especially those that are highly dependent on energy, such as the fisheries and aquaculture sectors.

More details

In 2022, the hike in marine-diesel prices more than doubled compared to 2021, causing surging operational costs for our fishing fleet and rising seafood prices for consumers.

In Scotland, the parts of the fleet that rely heavily on fuel, like the scallop dredgers and whitefish and prawn trawlers, have been hardest hit, leaving many fishers facing economic ruin. The impact on fisheries and aquaculture has been severe, threatening the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of the sector. Given the current uncertain geopolitical context, energy prices are expected to remain both high and volatile, forcing fishers to search for ways to reduce fossil fuel dependency and move to new, environmentally sustainable, low carbon energy sources as quickly as possible.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Scotland - Statistics & Facts

Isla Scott — Wed, 29 May 2024 10:12:54 +0000

Scotland - Statistics & Facts

Primary Author or Creator:

D. Clark

Isla Scott Wed, 29/05/2024 - 11:12

Publisher:

Statista

Date Published:

15/01/24

Category:

People

https://www.statista.com/topics/3820/scotland/#topicOverview

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

Scotland is the second-largest country in the United Kingdom and has a population of approximately 5.48 million. With a population density of just 70 people per square kilometer, Scotland is also the most sparsely populated country in the UK.

The number of recorded crimes in Scotland has declined substantially in recent years, falling from almost 512,000 crimes in 2004/05 to around 289,000 in 2022/23.

In terms of Scotland's economic situation, recent labor market statistics show that the overall unemployment rate was declining significantly prior to 2020, with this trend was also reflected in the youth unemployment rate. Rising unemployment rates from 2020 onwards were a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Attitudes to Immigration in Scotland: Cautious pragmatism?

Isla Scott — Fri, 24 May 2024 10:47:22 +0000

Attitudes to Immigration in Scotland: Cautious pragmatism?

Primary Author or Creator:

Sarah Kyambi

Isla Scott Fri, 24/05/2024 - 11:47

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Rebecca Kay

Publisher:

Migration Policy Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2024

Category:

Migration

https://migrationpolicyscotland.org.uk/publications/https-migrationpolicyscotla…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

40pp

Fast Facts

The second Migration Policy Scotland Attitudes Survey updates understanding of what the Scottish public thinks about immigration developing an evidence base that helps policymakers and others make better informed choices in a complex and changing context

More details

Key findings:

Survey responses suggest a pragmatic outlook on the contribution immigration makes to the Scottish economy. There is widespread support for employers to recruit from abroad, strong agreement that immigration helps fill jobs where workers are needed and clear support for increasing or maintaining the current number of work and study visas.
Views on the impacts of immigration remain more positive than negative, especially at national level. Importantly given Scotland’s population concerns, there is strong agreement that immigration brings new people to areas that need them and a clear majority in favour of longer-term stays and access to settlement for labour migrants.
The largest group of respondents prefers a reduction in the level of immigration (42%). This is a shift from 12 months ago where the largest group preferred an increase. However, in contrast to UK-wide surveys, the proportion favouring a reduction is not currently the majority.

The raw data is available on request: info@migrationpolicyscotland.org.uk

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

How have the institutions of UK devolution affected economic performance?

Isla Scott — Thu, 23 May 2024 11:20:06 +0000

How have the institutions of UK devolution affected economic performance?

Primary Author or Creator:

Esmond Birnie

Isla Scott Thu, 23/05/2024 - 12:20

Publisher:

Economics Observatory

Date Published:

22/05/24

Category:

Devolution

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-have-the-institutions-of-uk-devolution…

Type of Resource:

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

1pp

Fast Facts

It is sometimes argued that the experience of devolution for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales implies that the regions of England need greater decentralisation to improve policy delivery and economic outcomes. But the evidence from the devolved nations after 25 years is much more ambiguous.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Devolution

Economic policy

Language English

How foreign ownership drains Scotland’s wealth

Isla Scott — Wed, 22 May 2024 12:10:28 +0000

How foreign ownership drains Scotland’s wealth

Primary Author or Creator:

Craig Dalzell

Isla Scott Wed, 22/05/2024 - 13:10

Publisher:

Common Weal

Date Published:

28/04/24

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Profit-Extraction-FINAL.pdf

Banking

Type of Resource:

Research

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

20pp

Fast Facts

This paper examines data published by the Scottish Government on Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) which lays out the extend to which the profits from foreign-owned companies in Scotland are extracted outwith Scotland, how it is done and where the profits go.

More details

― Scotland is one of the most foreign-owned countries in the world and one of only a handful of such countries that is both rich and developed but is not a micro-state or an outright tax haven.

― Comparing Scotland’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and its GNI (Gross National Income) found that in 2021, £36.5 billion was extracted from Scotland – largely in the form of profits and dividends to foreign companies and shareholders – while only £26.4 billion flowed into Scotland – largely as foreign investment income. A net outwards flow of £10.1 billion.

― Of this outwards “economic flow”, £3.9 billion was extracted to elsewhere in the UK whereas £6.2 billion was extracted to elsewhere in the world.

― This is equivalent to 5.59% of GDP which is greater than the average of any World Bank income group, including the world’s least developed and most heavily indebted nations.

― Scotland has experienced a net outflow of wealth in every year since records began in 1998 – totalling around £277.4 billion between 1998 and 2021. Of this, £134.7 billion was extracted to the rest of the UK and £142.7 billion was extracted to the rest of the world.

― In 2021 only five polities in the World Bank GNI database were both richer than Scotland in terms of GNI/capita and had a higher net rate of outwards economic flow. San Marino, Singapore, Ireland, Luxembourg and The Cayman Islands.

― The Scottish Government’s intensive support of “Foreign Direct Investment” aims to create a net flows of investment towards Scotland, but these investments will, if they are successful, result in greater flows of profit extraction in years to come.

― Over-reliance on foreign capital has and will lead to capture of Scotland’s democracy as politicians will be pressured to appease investors who have already demonstrated the ability to move investments elsewhere if demands are not met regarding tax breaks, erosion of workers rights, capture of environmental standards or any other legislation that may reduce rates of profit extraction.

― While the latest publication of GNI figures is welcome, the gap between 2017 and 2023 as well as the two year lag time for the latest data is an issue that should be addressed as a matter of urgency. The Scottish Government should commit to publishing GNI figures at least annually, and preferably as frequently as and alongside GDP figures.
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Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic data

Banking

Capital investment

Direct Foreign Investment

Language English

Secrecy and Green Freeports PREPARE TO BE SHOCKED

Press Team — Fri, 03 May 2024 10:53:59 +0000

Secrecy and Green Freeports PREPARE TO BE SHOCKED

Primary Author or Creator:

Alex Thorburn

Press Team Fri, 03/05/2024 - 11:53

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Salvo Freeports Group

Publisher:

Iain Lawson, Your for Scotland

Date Published:

24/04/24

Alternative Published Date

2024

Category:

https://yoursforscotlandcom.wordpress.com/2024/05/01/secrecy-and-green-freeport…

Type of Resource:

Opinion

Fast Facts

The Westminster / Holyrood partnership to introduce “Green Freeports” to Scotland is a complete betrayal of the people of Scotland.

More details

When people do hear the truth about these “Green Freeports” that are neither “green”, nor are they “free”, and they are definitely not “ports” as they take over large areas of our country, they are absolutely shocked and wonder why they have not heard about these until now.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Freeports

Alba political party

SNP

Language English

Scotland’s extraordinary fiscal contribution to UK economy revealed

Neil Sinclair — Wed, 01 May 2024 15:21:28 +0000

Scotland’s extraordinary fiscal contribution to UK economy revealed

Primary Author or Creator:

Jack Peat

Neil Sinclair Wed, 01/05/2024 - 16:21

Publisher:

The London Economic

Date Published:

20/03/24

Category:

London Economic 'Scotland’s extraordinary fiscal contribution to UK economy rev…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Scotland’s annual tax contributions to the UK have increased by £14.2 billion over the last decade, with income tax, capital gains tax and taxes on productions such as environmental levies driving this increased contribution.

New analysis shows that the Scottish public sector generated an annual revenue of £73.3 billion during the last financial year, a 24 per cent increase versus a decade ago, equating to an increased contribution of £14.2 billion to the UK economy.

As a result, Scotland now accounts for 8 per cent of total UK contributions, far more than the 3.5 per cent contributed by Wales and the 2.1 per cent contributed by Northern Ireland, although the populations in those countries are significantly lower.

More details

Commenting on the figures, Bradley Post, the managing director of RIFT, said: “Scotland’s economic contribution to the UK stretches far beyond North Sea Oil and, in fact, there has been significant increases across many areas of the Scottish economy in the last decade.

“So while the topic of Scottish independence may be a contentious one, there are over fourteen billion reasons why the UK should be happy that Scotland remains a part of it today.”

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Fiscal balance

Public sector data

Language English

Scotonomics podcasts

Stephen Richard — Thu, 07 Mar 2024 14:35:19 +0000

Scotonomics podcasts

Primary Author or Creator:

Scotonomics

Stephen Richard Thu, 07/03/2024 - 14:35

Publisher:

Scotonomics

Alternative Published Date

2021-

Category:

https://shows.acast.com/scotonomics

Type of Resource:

Podcasts

Fast Facts

How the economy really works

More details

Every week SCOTONOMICS delves into the details of our modern economy. We all know that something is wrong with the way that the economy is currently working and we will find out why.

SCOTONOMICS will pose challenging questions to leading economists from across the globe as we explore the myths and in many cases the lies, that govern our lives in a modern economy.

SCOTONOMICS is essential viewing for anyone interested in Scottish politics and the Scottish economy.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economics

Language English

The Case for Industry Sector Strategies

Stephen Richard — Fri, 01 Mar 2024 10:18:43 +0000

The Case for Industry Sector Strategies

Primary Author or Creator:

Lord Sainsbury of Turville

Stephen Richard Fri, 01/03/2024 - 10:18

Publisher:

Our Scottish Future

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://ourscottishfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/The-Case-For-Industry-…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

24pp

Fast Facts

The Prime Minister and the Chancellor, have seen no need to systematically support British industry in the face of fierce global competition

More details

adopt a policy of supporting Industry Sector Strategies in addition to policies on macroeconomic stability; horizontal policies to help all industry in areas such as skills, R&D and investment; and regional policy. If the UK is to prosper in today’s highly competitive global economy British companies have to become more competitive, and Industry Sector Strategies are one of the key ways that the government can help them be successful.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

industrial strategty

Language English

From Growth to Good a ten-year growth plan for Scotland

Stephen Richard — Fri, 01 Mar 2024 10:09:41 +0000

From Growth to Good a ten-year growth plan for Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Dan Turner

Stephen Richard Fri, 01/03/2024 - 10:09

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Eddie Barnes, Henry Stannard, Ross Christie

Publisher:

Our Scottish Future

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://ourscottishfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/From-Growth-to-Good.pdf

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

58pp

Fast Facts

Without higher rates of growth, we risk a corrosive culture where people come to think of the world as a zero-sum game – where we fight to claim our share of a diminishing pie; where we reach the view that in order for us to win, somebody else must lose. It is a path we must not choose.

More details

This long-term plan for growth must become the priority for all our political parties. Because we are nearing the point where, without it, our public services are becoming unsustainable. Economic growth is not a luxury for Scotland over the coming decades: it will decide whether or not the social contract maintained by government to provide people with dignity and material comfort can continue. Low growth is already costing our public services dear; in 2022-23, slow growth in Scotland’s underlying tax base more than offset the money raised from additional tax revenues collected due to Scotland’s higher rates. In other words, even though Scottish taxpayers paid more of their income to fund public services than workers elsewhere in the UK, it did not feed through to higher revenues because of the weakness in the underlying economy.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Wellwashing: Why a Superficial Approach to Wellbeing Economics will Fail

Stephen Richard — Mon, 19 Feb 2024 14:25:30 +0000

Wellwashing: Why a Superficial Approach to Wellbeing Economics will Fail

Primary Author or Creator:

Iain Black

Stephen Richard Mon, 19/02/2024 - 14:25

Publisher:

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/policies/wellwashing/

Type of Resource:

Report

Fast Facts

An approach to economics that increases as maximises wellbeing must do so despite and regardless of the impact this approach would have on growth.

More details

This paper sought to show how mindsets matter in allowing an understanding of a WBE that truly ‘serves people and the planet’ and what the deeper leverage point solutions can be. It also sought to help align the interpretation of a growing number of authors and interested parties around an understanding that the WBE by explaining that’s not a business-as-usual tax and spend economy seeking to produce wellbeing. Instead, it seeks to set a new systems goal and through ensuring that access to nature, true participation, connection with communities, fair institutions, and dignity to all, are designed into the economy through every policy and structure, it delivers planetary, personal and social wellbeing for all.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The Hallmark of the UK Economy is Stagnation

Stephen Richard — Thu, 07 Dec 2023 13:44:39 +0000

The Hallmark of the UK Economy is Stagnation

Primary Author or Creator:

Ross McAlinden

Stephen Richard Thu, 07/12/2023 - 13:44

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/the-hallmark-of-the-uk-economy-is-stagnatio…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Scotland’s economic advantages have been squandered by the UK for too long.

More details

Britain’s economy is in decline and has been since the 2007/8 Financial Crisis. Economic stagnation coupled with effectively zero real wage growth and skyrocketing income inequality has led the UK down a dark path of declining living standards and Scotland has been dragged down with it.

Economic change looks unlikely from either of the two main parties and with Labour widely considered a shoo-in at the next General Election, Keir Starmer’s comments show us that he intends to bring zero economic change to the table as PM.

Scotland only has one option if we are to improve our economic situation and find ourselves climbing the Scotianomics Wellbeing Index. We are already on the path to a wellbeing economy, however, the limited powers offered to us through devolution are significantly holding us back. Through independence we can create a better, fairer, greener, wealthier, healthier, happier and more successful Scotland.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The UK’s Regional Inequalities in Comparative Perspective: Dynamics and Consequences

Stephen Richard — Thu, 07 Dec 2023 12:33:09 +0000

The UK’s Regional Inequalities in Comparative Perspective: Dynamics and Consequences

Primary Author or Creator:

Samuel MacKinnon

Stephen Richard Thu, 07/12/2023 - 12:33

Publisher:

Scotianomics

Alternative Published Date

2019

Category:

https://www.scotianomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0419-The-UK%E2%80%99s-R…

Type of Resource:

Briefing Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

7pp

Fast Facts

Compared to neighbouring northern European states, the UK is among the most unequal in terms of regional distributions of wealth.

More details

• What all this suggests is that the most dynamic economies in Europe are proving to be those in which domestic regions are on an even level of development.

• Wealth from many of the UK’s regions outside the capital have travelled into London, specifically its financial centres, as the UK has maintained an economic plan that has consolidated inequality in the state.

• Inequality is not just a symptom of the poor economic performance that has dogged the UK. It is one of the central causes of it. Moreover, this inequality is now threatening the political coherence of the UK, creating extreme political instabilities in the state.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The costs of Brexit for the Scottish and UK economies so far

Stephen Richard — Thu, 07 Dec 2023 12:21:46 +0000

The costs of Brexit for the Scottish and UK economies so far

Primary Author or Creator:

Samuel MacKinnon

Stephen Richard Thu, 07/12/2023 - 12:21

Publisher:

Scotianomics

Alternative Published Date

2019

Category:

https://www.scotianomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0519-The-Costs-of-Brexi…

Type of Resource:

Briefing Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

7pp

Fast Facts

We estimate the cost of Brexit to Scotland’s economy so far [2019] to have been £3.4 billion.

More details

• While Scotland’s onshore economy has been damaged significantly by Brexit already, the fact that – even excluding a bounce in offshore performance – it has proven more resilient than the UK economy is indicative of Scotland’s inherent strengths.

• It also demonstrates that North Sea revenues are indeed a bonus to, and not the core of, Scotland’s economic performance.

• Yet, most forecasts point to Scotland being harmed far more overall than the rest of the UK in every Brexit scenario. So, when the day the UK leaves the EU comes, the economic prospects of Scotland may become rapidly bleaker than they currently appear.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Brexit consequences

Language English

Impacts of Brexit Across Income and Demographic Groups in Scotland

Stephen Richard — Wed, 06 Dec 2023 22:17:59 +0000

Impacts of Brexit Across Income and Demographic Groups in Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Emma MacFarlane

Stephen Richard Wed, 06/12/2023 - 22:17

Publisher:

Scotianomics

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://www.scotianomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/0220-Impacts-of-Brexit-…

Type of Resource:

Briefing Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

7pp

Fast Facts

The negative economic impact of Brexit ... for residents of Scotland.

More details

• As Scotland exits the UK, the potential impacts for Scotland, especially the most vulnerable individuals in society, could be devastating.

• This is occurring despite a majority of the electorate in Scotland (62%) voting to remain in the EU. As pro-EU sentiment is prominent in Scotland, political instability is likely to be generated in the UK as a result of Brexit.

• The Scottish Parliament has recognised the potential damage of Brexit on its citizens and has refused to give consent to the UK Government’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Brexit consequences

Population

Language English

Defining and Quantifying the Wellbeing Economic Approach

Stephen Richard — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 15:06:02 +0000

Defining and Quantifying the Wellbeing Economic Approach

Primary Author or Creator:

Ross McAlinden

Stephen Richard Mon, 04/12/2023 - 15:06

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, Niamh McGhee

Publisher:

Scotianomics

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.scotianomics.org/analysis/

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

49pp

Fast Facts

An international analysis of wellbeing economics with a focus on measuring and quantifying success

More details

Many critics of wellbeing economics argue that wellbeing is a subjective measure. Our answer to this is the Scotianomics Wellbeing Index. • The Scotianomics Wellbeing Index measures nations across five dimensions of wellbeing. Each dimension is composed of sub-measures which are summed together to give a dimension score. The dimension scores are then averaged to give each nation an overall Wellbeing score. • This allows for easy comparison between nations and for policymakers to quickly understand in which dimension of the wellbeing economy their nation is failing.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Wellbeing

Wellbeing index

Language English

Defining and Quantifying the Wellbeing Economic Approach

Stephen Richard — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 15:06:02 +0000

Defining and Quantifying the Wellbeing Economic Approach

Primary Author or Creator:

Ross McAlinden

Stephen Richard Mon, 04/12/2023 - 15:06

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, Niamh McGhee

Publisher:

Scotianomics

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.scotianomics.org/analysis/

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

49pp

Fast Facts

An international analysis of wellbeing economics with a focus on measuring and quantifying success

More details

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Wellbeing

Language English

Public Attitudes Toward Wellbeing Economics in Scotland

Stephen Richard — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 14:58:22 +0000

Public Attitudes Toward Wellbeing Economics in Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

: Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Stephen Richard Mon, 04/12/2023 - 14:58

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Emma MacFarlane

Publisher:

Scotianomics

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://www.scotianomics.org/analysis/

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

50pp

Fast Facts

Public attitude towards the adoption of a wellbeing economic approach in Scotland.

More details

The survey focused on some of the key principles and policies associated with a wellbeing economy and throughout the report we have evaluated how accepting people in Scotland are of the values that are related to a wellbeing-led economic approach.

• We conclude that there is significant support for the adoption of a wellbeing economic approach in Scotland, with a majority of respondents endorsing many of the wellbeing values and policies.

• The report recognises that people who reside in Scotland are likely to consider the purpose of public policy and economics to be to serve the needs of society and its people and should have a greater emphasis on wellbeing, quality of life, equality, fairness, health and happiness. This is an important finding with regard to future policymaking and suggests there is a demand for a more thorough wellbeing approach which is not yet being fully utilised by policymakers in Scotland.

• Throughout the survey there was a clear desire amongst respondents to rebuild society and the economy by adopting a new economic approach after the coronavirus pandemic. It is evident that this period of unrest has acted as a catalyst for change and the general public would welcome a new system that is more resilient and therefore less susceptible to any future health or economic crises.

• This report also evaluated the acceptance of a wellbeing approach across various policy areas. With regard to work and education, a greater focus on wellbeing was widely supported, with investment in innovation, improved work practices and free education all being greatly endorsed.

• Some of the concepts surrounding social equality faced a mixed reaction from respondents, with the idea of economic success being more equally shared receiving less support. However, eradicating poverty and investing in personal development opportunities were widely supported.

• Other policies associated with a wellbeing economic approach, such as the introduction of a Universal Basic Income (UBI), decentralisation and tackling climate change were all supported by a majority of respondents.

• Our analysis of the level of acceptance within society of the general principles and values of the wellbeing approach covers age, gender, political party affiliation and occupation. Therefore, we are able to pinpoint the groups of society that are most likely to endorse a wellbeing agenda and identify any political barriers to the adoption of this system.

• The results of this survey offer a degree of guidance to the policymaking community as we experience a period of great change and radical policymaking decisions. That is, the overwhelming desire for a greater implementation of policies associated with a wellbeing approach amongst the population of Scotland

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Opinion polls

Language English

The Wellbeing Economic Approach is the path to independence

Stephen Richard — Mon, 27 Nov 2023 11:07:42 +0000

The Wellbeing Economic Approach is the path to independence

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Mon, 27/11/2023 - 11:07

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.believeinscotland.org/the_wellbeing_economic_approach_is_the_path_t…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

The single biggest roadblock to achieving independence is the lack of an inspiring vision of the kind of nation an independent Scotland should become.

More details

Critics argue that wellbeing is subjective and cannot be measured. They are wrong. The right wants to double down on GDP as they believe that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ but growing inequality has destroyed the trickle-down economics case. The left see it as a threat to socialism and it is – it is equally a threat to capitalism, taking the best and workable elements of both systems and turning them to a higher purpose than just economic growth or shared ownership of the means of production.

Scotianomics answers this question of measurement with the Scotianomics Wellbeing Economy Index, which measures national indicators across five dimensions of wellbeing. Each dimension is composed of sub-measures which are summed together to give a dimension score. These are then averaged to give each nation an overall Wellbeing Score. This allows for easy comparison between nations and for policymakers to quickly understand in which area their nation needs improvement or strengthening. Scotland, which lacks the data gathering tools of an independent nation does not appear on the 2023 Index. Scotianomics covers this in the report and makes recommendations about how this can be rectified.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Is it right to ignore human responsibilities?

Stephen Richard — Fri, 24 Nov 2023 22:39:37 +0000

Is it right to ignore human responsibilities?

Primary Author or Creator:

David Bone

Stephen Richard Fri, 24/11/2023 - 22:39

Publisher:

Bylines Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://bylines.scot/news/scotland/is-it-right-to-ignore-human-responsibilities/

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Can a rights-based approach function in an economic system?

More details

A responsibility-based structure could serve as a touchstone and guide for your own behaviour and a reminder that many of your ‘rights’ have a societal cost that may impinge on the rest of us. It also may serve as a reminder that many of these rights are also not enjoyed in vast areas of the globe.

C.S Lewis wrote in Mere Christianity: “You cannot make men good by law: and without good men, you cannot have a good society”. We cannot make people good through a rights-based structure alone. Scotland, in particular, has tried this with limited success, given the increase in obesity and youth violence that are both now endemic.

For society to really function correctly we need a partnership between both rights and responsibilities.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Rights

Responsibilities

Language English

GERS and the Mismanagement of the Economy

Stephen Richard — Tue, 17 Oct 2023 08:08:05 +0000

GERS and the Mismanagement of the Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Bottom Line

Stephen Richard Tue, 17/10/2023 - 09:08

Publisher:

Bottom Line

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://thebottomline.scot/gers-and-the-mismanagement-of-the-economy/

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

The latest Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland (GERS) statistics on Scotland’s public finances provide stark evidence on the mismanagement of the economy by the UK Government.

More details

Two-thirds of Scotland’s current account deficit in 2022-23 was due to two aspects of poor UK economic management: the cost of living support that was necessary due to inflation in the UK that was higher than other advanced economies, and the significant increase in the cost of servicing public sector debt. These result from UK policy mistakes including Brexit (and its impact on inflation), greater exposure to global oil and gas prices than other countries and the decision to index-link a much higher proportion of government debt than any other country, increasing the exposure of UK public finances to inflation.

If the Scottish current account deficit for 2022-23 were revised to remove these two examples of UK economic mismanagement, it would fall from 6.4% of GDP to 2.2%, well below the UK current account deficit and well within the 3% that is generally regarded as sustainable.

The substantial contribution of oil and gas revenues to Scotland’s public finances also highlights a significant economic opportunity. Whilst it is possible that the 2022-23 may represent a peak in oil and gas revenues, at £9.4 billion, the forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) are for an additional £35-40 billion over the next five years.

This provides a huge opportunity for the Scottish economy and Scottish public finances. These revenues are taxes on the profits of the energy sector. The profits retained after tax are set to be invested in the energy transition, which will generate many employment opportunities (for example, in offshore wind farm construction) and provide a basis for increasing the competitiveness of the Scottish economy in the long-term and sustainable public finances.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish Public Finance

Public finance

Language English

Divergence Makes Independence Inevitable

Stephen Richard — Mon, 16 Oct 2023 09:52:08 +0000

Divergence Makes Independence Inevitable

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Mon, 16/10/2023 - 10:52

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.believeinscotland.org/divergent_economic_priorities_will_be_the_rea…

Type of Resource:

Opinion

Fast Facts

What should the purpose of the economy be?

More details

The consequences of economic divergence are noticeable throughout history, there is scarcely a country collapsed or empire toppled that cannot trace its root cause back to differing economic outcomes, aims and priorities. From the fall of the Roman Empire to the peaceful dissolution of Czechoslovakia, significant differences in outcomes and priorities are notable and the same will be true for Scotland and the UK.

As Scotland makes the creation of a wellbeing economy a priority, a chasm will develop between Scotland’s economic and societal outcomes and the rest of the UK. It will then become apparent to a vast majority of the population that the UK is a deadweight dragging Scotland down; its backward economic thinking will stand in stark contrast to the wellbeing economy we have worked to create, highlighting Scotland’s need to be an independent nation.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic divergence

Language English

Wellwashing. Why a superficial approach to Wellbeing Economics will fail

Stephen Richard — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 10:18:31 +0000

Wellwashing. Why a superficial approach to Wellbeing Economics will fail

Primary Author or Creator:

Iain Black

Stephen Richard Mon, 09/10/2023 - 11:18

Publisher:

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Wellwashing.pdf

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

16pp

Fast Facts

An approach to economics that increases as maximises wellbeing must do so despite and regardless of the impact this approach would have on growth.

More details

― There has been much written and said about a Wellbeing Economy, unfortunately there are numerous examples of where the ideas presented are weakly related to the actual detailed work on what a Wellbeing Economy is or how to get there. Indeed, some of it presented recently in the independence supporting media, is profoundly confused.

― This has resulted in the term ‘Wellbeing-Washing’ being coined. This describe situations where the language of wellbeing is appropriated by design (or otherwise) to justify or reinvent existing neoliberal economic visions or where it is used for political purposes as a fashionable label under which to gather.

― This matters because before we can make strong progress towards a wellbeing economy, we must have a shared understanding of what it is and how to achieve it.

― Wellbeing is not an ‘outcome’ which can justify any means of delivering it. Wellbeing approaches based on our current economic model will not address the damage they cause including climate change and poverty.

― In a wellbeing economy, the economy is explicitly recognised as being subservient to the planet and society’s needs. The economy delivers the needs of society and ensures planetary health.

― A wellbeing economy changes our economic system by changing the system goals. Systems goals matter because they can bring about profound change, quickly. This happens because all the infrastructure, institutions, materials, and processes within a system act to achieve the goal of the system. Changing the goal means all these elements of a system then move to work towards this new goal.

― The systems goal for a wellbeing economy can be understood as ‘delivering social justice on a healthy planet’. This is achieved through ‘designing in’ the principals of Fairness, Dignity, Purpose, Access to nature and Participation. When these are hard wired into our economy through all the structures, policies and incentives used to build it, they create personal, community and societal wellbeing on a healthy planet. A wellbeing economy is therefore about how we design and do things, not just the results.

― Our current economic system goal is growing GDP which ‘designs in’ ecological and social failures through its exploitative principles. It needs to exploit nature to make all the ‘stuff’ used to satisfy needs and wants. It seeks to exploit labour by seeking lower cost through lower wages and regulation. Our current system goal therefore creates harms including poor health, poverty and climate break down. Harms we in Scotland spend billions of pounds mitigating.

― An economic vision focussing on GDP growth contains within it the drivers which harm progress on other indicators. This produces a feedback loop – no matter how much you grow GDP, the cost of mitigating its harm grows at the same rate so the gap remains.

― The concept of differentiating ‘good growth’ from ‘bad growth’ has been examined for years and is not supported by the academic literature. The primary problem is that this is a subjective judgment, and the process of politics is capable of redefining any growth as ‘good’, or ‘sustainable’ making the differentiation meaningless.

― This concept of ‘good growth’ takes its fullest form in the concept of ‘decoupling’ which is used to justify business as usual economics and government. Decoupling refers to trying to separate the need for physical inputs like materials to create economic growth (so, seeking to not use as much ‘stuff’ per pound of GPD produced) and seeking to separate economic growth from the pollution its create (less greenhouse gas per pound of GPD produced).

― But this ‘decoupling’ has not happened at anywhere near the rate it needs to and there is little available evidence to provide any confidence that it can ever work – and the planet is too close to tipping points to try it and wait to find out.

― Another area in pressing need of ‘decoupling’ is the belief that poverty is cured by GDP growth and is not a structural issue that is caused by the growth economy. In the end, 50 years of GDP growth have resulted in the same relative proportion poverty as beforehand. Poverty is a much wider issue than can be solved by increased benefit payments or subsidising the cost of providing public services.

― Focussing on energy transition is important but greatly insufficient to address the climate crises. Our current technology first approach to Just Transition and Net Zero are perpetuating our energy dependency on the oil and gas majors. This will perpetuate the cost-of living crisis caused by being dependent on them for energy rather than localised, solutions in which communities have a stake and directly benefit.

― We can only address the climate crises by replacing the goal of our economic system, recognising that we live on a finite planet that cannot supply an ever-increasing desire for material abundance (irrespective of energy source) and that we must distribute goods and services equitably in order to achieve climate justice.

― Finally, there is an enormous disconnect between the measurable scale of the impact of climate change to humanity and the scale of the action being taken. One crucial area where the Wellbeing economy vision can be improved is to add a principle as to how change must be enacted. Crises can only be addressed through crises response and this requires emergency governmental response of the type seen during pandemics or conflict.

― Adapting existing economic orthodoxy or enacting a wellbeing economy using business as usual forms of government, governance and decision making will not work to address the crises faced in the time left to do so.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Giving Substance to the Wellbeing Economy

Stephen Richard — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 10:09:13 +0000

Giving Substance to the Wellbeing Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Kate Forbes

Stephen Richard Mon, 09/10/2023 - 11:09

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Ivan McKee, Michelle Thomson

Publisher:

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/policies/giving-substance-to-the-wellbeing-economy/

Type of Resource:

Discussion Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

6pp

Fast Facts

The Scottish Government to move beyond soundbites about a Wellbeing Economy and produce a plan that has the substance to deliver on its promises.

More details

― In order to deliver a “Wellbeing Economy” it is necessary to be able to measure what “success” looks like. Recent commitments from the Scottish Government to develop a Wellbeing Economy Monitor are laudable, though more effort is required to create a monitor that allows for effective international comparison.

― Fundamental to the idea of a Wellbeing Economy is the principle that an economy should deliver for people and planet, not merely grow faster and forever.

― A Wellbeing Economy recognises the value of small local businesses and the role they play in communities and local economies – Scotland must work to give competitive advantage to these businesses rather than simply importing lower quality products – especially if such products would fail to meet domestic environmental, Fair Work or other regulations.

― The UK’s approach to government has for many years been a laissex faire approach that believes that government should “get out of the way” of the economy. A Wellbeing approach is the opposite. Governments can and must lead the way, set the example to follow and use tools such as its powers over public procurement, regulation and standards to define and drive forward a Wellbeing Economy.

― Whilst we recognise that Scotland could do much more with the full powers of independence, the Scottish Government can, and should, do more with the powers we currently have to steer the economy towards a Wellbeing approach.

― Everyone has a vested interest in tackling poverty, protecting the environment and building strong and healthy communities and businesses. A government that is serious about delivering a real Wellbeing Economy understands that and acts accordingly, getting beyond the soundbites.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Small businesses

Poverty

Language English

The Scottish Economy and Nationalism: Constructing Scotland's Imagined Economy

Stephen Richard — Mon, 02 Oct 2023 08:13:15 +0000

The Scottish Economy and Nationalism: Constructing Scotland's Imagined Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

James Foley

Stephen Richard Mon, 02/10/2023 - 09:13

Publisher:

Taylor & Francis Ltd

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://uk.bookshop.org/p/books/the-scottish-economy-and-nationalism-constructi…

Type of Resource:

Book

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

164pp

Fast Facts

"The 'Scottish economy' continues to dominate - and to limit - debate about the country's future."

More details

"Scotland's economic capacity to prosper independently of Britain has become a key political issue, dominating the independence referendum of 2014 and continuing to influence British politics since. But, as this book shows, the Scottish economy is not merely a statistical object - it is also a political, sociological and cultural idea which has been imagined and constructed.

The book explores the history of how Scotland has been framed in statistical and policy terms, which are laden with conflicts over meaning, ranging from class struggles and struggles against "external control" to the ongoing debate over national independence. Using Scotland as a case study for examining the political meaning of "the economy", the book also considers the origins of efforts to measure the Scottish economy in the British nationalist terms of "regional policy". It then considers the influence, in turn, of North Sea oil, globalisation/Europeanisation, class dealignment and neoliberal "enterprise" ideology in changing the meanings attached to the Scottish economy. These form necessary conditions for the debate on national independence, where the nature and the future of the Scottish economy remain the central controversy. By examining the economic ideas of a self-proclaimed "cosmopolitan" nationalist movement, the study will offer deeper insights into how nationalists are adapting to the crisis of globalisation.

This book marks a significant contribution to the literature on Scottish independence as well as economic sociology, nationalism, critical geography and political economy more broadly."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Natural resources

Language English

The Scottish Economy and Nationalism: Constructing Scotland's Imagined Economy

Stephen Richard — Sun, 24 Sep 2023 21:48:03 +0000

The Scottish Economy and Nationalism: Constructing Scotland's Imagined Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

James Foley

Stephen Richard Sun, 24/09/2023 - 22:48

Publisher:

Taylor & Francis Ltd

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://uk.bookshop.org/p/books/the-scottish-economy-and-nationalism-constructi…

Type of Resource:

Book

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

164pp

Fast Facts

"The idea of a Scottish economy is both recent and contested."

More details

Scotland's economic capacity to prosper independently of Britain has become a key political issue, dominating the independence referendum of 2014 and continuing to influence British politics since. But, as this book shows, the Scottish economy is not merely a statistical object - it is also a political, sociological and cultural idea which has been imagined and constructed.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Understanding Scotland Report Wave 7 Economy

Stephen Richard — Thu, 25 May 2023 07:30:15 +0000

Understanding Scotland Report Wave 7 Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Diffley Partnership

Stephen Richard Thu, 25/05/2023 - 08:30

Publisher:

Diffley Partnership

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.diffleypartnership.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Understanding-S…

Type of Resource:

survey report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

27pp

Fast Facts

Diffley Partnership latest [May 2023] research finds that the cost of living continues to drive Scots to make difficult choices.

More details

Some key findings are:

4 in 10 Scots (42%) report having taken money out of their savings to cover higher costs
1 in 4 have used a credit card to make purchases that they wouldn’t usually
1 in 5 have used ‘buy now pay later’ schemes to cover everyday spending
A small but increasing number of Scots have stopped contributing to a pension (7%)
7 in 10 (68%) report that they have cut their energy use through methods like switching off lights and not using the oven to cope with rising prices and inflation
two-thirds (66)% report reducing spending on non-essential purchases such as clothing
the economic outlook from Scots remains bleak with 62% thinking that general economic conditions will be worse in a years’ time (compared to 66% in February)
45% think their personal financial situation will be worse in a years’ time (down from 48% in February)

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Cost of Living

Economic outlook

Language English

How we forecast the Scottish economy

Stephen Richard — Thu, 04 May 2023 17:53:37 +0000

How we forecast the Scottish economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Stephen Richard Thu, 04/05/2023 - 18:53

Publisher:

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://www.fiscalcommission.scot/publications/how-we-forecast-the-scottish-eco…

Type of Resource:

Report

Fast Facts

This report describes how we produce our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy.

More details

These include onshore Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, employment and earnings which feed into our fiscal forecasts. It also describes the main features of the new in-house macroeconomic forecasting model developed by the Scottish Fiscal Commission – where all data, analysis and judgements are brought together into a coherent forecast.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic forecasts

Language English

The Crisis of Growth and Capital

Stephen Richard — Mon, 10 Apr 2023 18:54:49 +0000

The Crisis of Growth and Capital

Primary Author or Creator:

Mike Small

Stephen Richard Mon, 10/04/2023 - 19:54

Publisher:

Bella Caledonia

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

Climate change

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2023/04/09/the-crisis-of-growth-and-capital/

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

"The last two IPCC reports ... have identified the economy as the problem, not the solution."

More details

"In Scotland and in Britain we are experiencing a political breakdown, a reality-induced trauma as climate crisis meets social crisis, as the ‘cost of living’ intensifies social divide and the only answer presented is ‘more of the same’ and ‘business as usual’. If you want a litmus test of where we are in battling the climate crisis, and the scale of the corporate defence of vested power, the president of the next UN climate summit to be hosted in the United Arab Emirates later this year, is Sultan Al Jaber. Al Jaber, as well as being the United Arab Emirates minister for industry and advanced technology, is better known as the chief executive of the UAE national oil company, Adnoc, one of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers.

Growth as cognitive frame has only recently been contested. For many, probably most people, it remains synonymous with improvement, development, even civilization itself. As that assumption crumbles the implications for capital is suddenly being realised.

Faced with overwhelming evidence of ecological breakdown the political and media elites’ response is more fossil fuels and strapping themselves to the failed model of capitalism that has led us to this desperate predicament."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Capitalism

Climate change

Language English

What is a well-being economy?

Stephen Richard — Sat, 08 Apr 2023 08:56:53 +0000

What is a well-being economy?

Primary Author or Creator:

Tom Chidwick

Stephen Richard Sat, 08/04/2023 - 09:56

Publisher:

Scottish Review

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.scottishreview.net//TomChidwick654a.html

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

'The well-being economic approach recognises that 'quality of life, equality, fairness, sustainability, happiness and health should be given equal weight to traditional measures such as GDP'. Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

More details

"Given that an international survey (which was also conducted in the US and France) found that 88% of workers in the UK have experienced 'some level of burnout' over the last two years, great electoral riches await the party that fixes 'Burnt Out Britain'. It is striking that the same survey found that over a third of us have now suffered extreme physical and mental exhaustion – as well as 'increased mental distance from one's job, which manifests as negativity or cynicism, and a sense of ineffectiveness' – 'frequently owing to pressures within the workplace'.

With coordinated trade union action and a renewed belief in collective bargaining being two of the most noticeable (and welcome) developments after Covid, we have a window in which to arrest the growth of this pernicious phenomenon. If the SNP's well-being economy can end the constant expectation that we must all work more for nothing extra and persuade the rest of the UK of both the virtues of a four-day working week and the harm done by hyperconnectivity, then count me in!"

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The economic contribution of the Pharmaceuticals Sector in Scotland

Stephen Richard — Mon, 03 Apr 2023 06:08:00 +0000

The economic contribution of the Pharmaceuticals Sector in Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Adam McGeoch

Stephen Richard Mon, 03/04/2023 - 07:08

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Mairi Spowage, Kate Milne, Jack Williamson, Calum Fox

Publisher:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://fraserofallander.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/The-Economic-Contributi…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

42pp

Fast Facts

The pharmaceuticals sector is a significant contributor to the Scottish economy and a key player in Scotland’s life sciences sector.

More details

"This report finds that, across the entire Scottish economy:

The Manufacturing of Pharmaceuticals contributes just under £1.5bn in Gross Value Added
(GVA) to Scotland, supporting a total of 11,350 Full-time Equivalent (FTE)3 Scottish jobs
The Wider Pharmaceuticals industry supports over £1.7bn in GVA and under 15,000 FTE jobs.
The Life Sciences industry supports just under £3.4 billion in GVA and over 38,000 FTE jobs.

Additionally, this report sets out how these sectors contribute to the Scottish Government programmes of action:"

Full Document (link)

Keywords

pharmaceuticals

Language English

Sunak and Brexit put Scotland at a permanent economic disadvantage

Stephen Richard — Wed, 15 Mar 2023 09:06:33 +0000

Sunak and Brexit put Scotland at a permanent economic disadvantage

Primary Author or Creator:

Martin Roche

Stephen Richard Wed, 15/03/2023 - 09:06

Publisher:

Bylines Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Sunak tells Northern Ireland it has a unique opportunity to prosper.

More details

"Well, Northern Ireland deserves a break, but not at the expense of other parts of the UK that might suffer because of the deal. Mobile inward investment that might have gone to Scotland, Wales or the Liverpool region may be easily tempted to Northern Ireland. Goods made in the North can, free of bureaucracy, enter the EU by simply driving over the Irish border, then be rapidly transshipped by sea or air to the EU mainland. Financial services businesses located in the North will be able to “passport” into Europe, enjoying Europe-wide regulatory approvals. Businesses currently located in the UK may conclude that relocating to Northern Ireland is a far more efficient and profitable exercise than staying put.

For Scotland, the special status granted to Northern Ireland sticks in the craw. Scotland voted 62% Remain in 2016 (N Ireland voted 55.8% Remain). Every single local authority district in Scotland endorsed staying in the EU. Since then, support for EU membership has hardened. Scots wish Northern Ireland well, but question how the UK can be a union of equals if one part of the union has significant economic advantages not enjoyed by other parts. It is, of course, a Tory Brexit. "

Keywords

Northern Ireland

Brexit consequences

Language English

International Scotland

Stephen Richard — Tue, 28 Feb 2023 10:04:16 +0000

International Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Adam McGeoch

Stephen Richard Tue, 28/02/2023 - 10:04

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Mairi Spowage, Kate Milne

Publisher:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://fraserofallander.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/FAI-CMS-International-S…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

36pp

Fast Facts

Scotland on the international stage relating to

■ Business, Trade, and Tourism in Scotland

■ Invest in Scotland

■ Scotland’s Transition to Net-zero

More details

The opportunities and challenges Scotland is faced with under each theme is discussed. This report also reflects on Scotland’s growth sectors - industries where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage - and how they support each international Scotland theme. These six sectors include –

■ Food and drink (including agriculture and fisheries);

■ Creative Industries (including digital);

■ Sustainable tourism;

■ Energy (including renewables);

■ Financial and business Services; and,

■ Life sciences.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Direct Foreign Investment

Tourism

Renewable Energy

Net Zero Economy

Language English

Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation

Stephen Richard — Thu, 16 Feb 2023 10:16:28 +0000

Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Government

Stephen Richard Thu, 16/02/2023 - 10:16

Publisher:

Scottish Government

Alternative Published Date

2023

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-national-strategy-economic-transfor…

Type of Resource:

Strategy paper

Fast Facts

Scottish Government's priorities for Scotland’s economy.

More details

"Transforming Scotland's economy is a national endeavour. As a consequence of the 6 programmes, 18 projects and 77 actions set out in this strategy, we will have achieved our vision of building a wellbeing economy.

Our vision for 2032 is to create a wellbeing economy: a society that is thriving across economic, social and environmental dimensions, one that delivers prosperity for all Scotland's people and places.

We all want Scotland to be successful. Success means a strong economy where good, secure and well-paid jobs and growing businesses have driven a significant reduction in poverty and, in particular, child poverty.

We will be a nation of entrepreneurs and innovators, with resilient supply chains and competitive advantages in the new industries generated by technological change, scientific advance and the climate emergency.

And our society will be one in which everyone can participate in our economic success, in every community and in every region.

Transforming Scotland's economy is a national endeavour and government, the enterprise and skills agencies, business, trade unions, third sector, local government, social enterprises and the people of Scotland all have a part to play. We can only succeed and achieve our goals if we pull together as one – a Team Scotland approach.

We want businesses to be exemplars, recognising and acting on their responsibilities to fair work and net zero. Taking action that protects and sustains our environment and natural world. Building a new mindset where all businesses see employees, communities and citizens as stakeholders as well as consumers. And where businesses are rooted in their communities.

This strategy marks a shift in our approach to delivery and it is the ruthless focus on delivery set out in this strategy that will unlock economic transformation and drive the economic opportunities across Scotland."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic development

Language English

Scottish independence: how do other small economies fare?

Stephen Richard — Sun, 29 Jan 2023 11:18:12 +0000

Scottish independence: how do other small economies fare?

Primary Author or Creator:

Marlene Jugl

Stephen Richard Sun, 29/01/2023 - 11:18

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Steve Monroe

Publisher:

Economics Observatory

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/scottish-independence-how-do-other-small-e…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

"The successes of small economies are highly contingent on state and society’s ability to capitalise on the strengths and minimise the vulnerabilities of small population size."

More details

"Scotland – with a population of close to 5.5 million – is not a small state. Nevertheless, size is relative. Small independent states are a useful lens through which to envision an independent Scotland.

This overview of evidence on the performance of small states should caution any knee-jerk optimism (or pessimism) about Scotland’s political and economic viability as a small independent state.

The blessings and afflictions of small population size are contingent on local and international politics. Reaping the benefits of small size in domestic affairs while mitigating the costs demands deep collaboration and solidarity between state and society.

Thriving in the international arena – one dominated by larger states – requires diplomatic tact and international cooperation. These demands are obtainable, but not inevitable.

Scotland’s success as a small independent state would depend less on its size than on its leaders’ ability to leverage the benefits and lessen the liabilities of small population size."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

5 reasons Scotland would thrive as an independent nation (updated)

Stephen Richard — Sat, 28 Jan 2023 10:07:40 +0000

5 reasons Scotland would thrive as an independent nation (updated)

Primary Author or Creator:

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Stephen Richard Sat, 28/01/2023 - 10:07

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/5-reasons-why-an-independent-scotland-will-…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Scotland is home to a unique combination of assets with which to build a prosperous and wealthy nation.

More details

There are 5 vital contributors to growth and development in a country. These include natural resources, a skilled population, access to trading markets, well-functioning products and sectors to trade with, and a supportive financial services system. Scotland possesses all of these in abundance, suggesting the country’s capability to boost its economic growth.

With independence, Scotland would have the ability to become a more prosperous nation, holding the power to create bespoke and sustainable economic growth strategies.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Natural resources

Financial services

Language English

Scottish independence: what are the big economic questions?

Stephen Richard — Fri, 27 Jan 2023 18:12:14 +0000

Scottish independence: what are the big economic questions?

Primary Author or Creator:

Graeme Roy

Stephen Richard Fri, 27/01/2023 - 18:12

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Stuart Mcintyre

Publisher:

Economics Observer

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/scottish-independence-what-are-the-big-eco…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

The big issues are currency, fiscal sustainability, economic borders, economies of scale, and new institutions required.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish Public Finance

Borders

Institutions needed for independence

Language English

Revealed: The ACCOUNTING TRICK that Hides Scotland’s Wealth

Stephen Richard — Thu, 26 Jan 2023 18:20:57 +0000

Revealed: The ACCOUNTING TRICK that Hides Scotland’s Wealth

Primary Author or Creator:

Gordon Mackintire-Kemp

Stephen Richard Thu, 26/01/2023 - 18:20

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/revealed-the-accounting-trick-that-hides-sc…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

For generations, the people of Scotland have been fed a negative narrative on Scotland’s economy. ... This narrative is fundamentally untrue. There is simply no evidence to support it whatsoever.

More details

"It’s fairly simple and becomes extremely obvious when you have access to the data. The UK Government has diverted Scotland’s wealth to the UK Treasury to pay off its debts. Thus it creates 100% of Scotland’s supposed debts and 100% of its phoney deficit.

The daftest thing Scotland could have done as an independent nation would have left Scotland at least £654bn better off today than GERS falsely suggests it is as part of the UK. However, had the Government of an independent Scotland simply copied Norway, then Scotland would now be £979 billion (almost a trillion pounds) better off than GERS suggests.

This is the impact of Westminster’s debt loading alone, and upon that accounting trick, rests the entire economic case for the Union. There must be a better explanation to the people of Scotland about what GERS actually says and that Scotland does not have a deficit.

So would an independent Scotland have to pay the rUK a population share of the UK’s historical debt? No – there is in fact a very strong case for Scotland to be compensated for having already paid more than its “fair share” of the UK’s debt, whilst being told that wasn’t the case by consecutive Westminster Governments."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scotland's debt

Language English

The Case Against Global Britain

Stephen Richard — Thu, 19 Jan 2023 19:20:08 +0000

The Case Against Global Britain

Primary Author or Creator:

Robert Anderson

Stephen Richard Thu, 19/01/2023 - 19:20

Publisher:

Pensioners for Independence

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://pensionersforindependence.scot/2022/11/01/the-case-against-global-brita…

Type of Resource:

Video

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

42:48

Fast Facts

UK Unionist supporters continually attack Scottish Independence. This is a look at their Global Briain to show that it is actually failing us all.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Global Britain

UK economy

Language English

Scottish Business Monitor

Stephen Richard — Tue, 27 Dec 2022 21:12:33 +0000

Scottish Business Monitor

Primary Author or Creator:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Stephen Richard Tue, 27/12/2022 - 21:12

Publisher:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Alternative Published Date

1998 -

Category:

https://fraserofallander.org/research/scottish-business-monitor/

Type of Resource:

Report

Fast Facts

"Launched in 1998 – and now in its 21st year – the Scottish Business Monitor is one of Scotland’s preeminent trackers of business sentiment and activity."

More details

"Compiled by the Fraser of Allander Institute – an independent economics research institute at the University of Strathclyde – the Business Monitor compiles responses from around 500 businesses across Scotland – and from a range of sectors – on issues such as business activity, investment, employment prospects and turnover/costs.

The Scottish Business Monitor is published weeks in advance of official growth data on the Scottish economy. It also provides a detailed assessment of sentiment in the business community, including investment and recruitment intentions."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Business

Language English

A monetary straitjacket: Scottish Government economic plan for independence

Stephen Richard — Tue, 27 Dec 2022 10:24:23 +0000

A monetary straitjacket: Scottish Government economic plan for independence

Primary Author or Creator:

Ben Cooper

Stephen Richard Tue, 27/12/2022 - 10:24

Publisher:

Sceptical Scot

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://sceptical.scot/2022/11/a-monetary-straitjacket-scottish-government-econ…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

"The best that can be said for the Scottish Government’s new economic paper for Scottish independence, Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy…, is that it does not include some of the more hideous ideas contained within the Growth Commission report. "

More details

"Transitioning out of Sterlingisation would be no easy task. To understand this, we first need to grasp the structural vulnerability inherent to being an independent state without monetary powers:

In part 1, I explore a recent paper on the vulnerabilities of sterlingisation to highlight what the key problems would be.

In Part 2, I look at how transition to a Scottish currency on the basis proposed in this paper would be extremely difficult.

In Part 3, I briefly examine the case of dollarised Ecuador, and how an attempt to escape dollarisation in that Latin American nation never got off the ground.

Finally, in Part 4, I look at what the disastrous UK Government ‘mini-budget’ should and shouldn’t teach us about monetary policy, fiscal policy and financial markets."

"The Scottish independence movement – the vast majority of whom back a Scottish currency – should continue to loudly make that case and apply pressure on the Scottish Government until it sees sense. A Scottish currency is no guarantee that independence would see the country’s deeply embedded economic problems tackled. A monetarily sovereign independent government would still be perfectly capable of chronic mismanagement. But to have an independent country with a fighting chance of making even partial economic and social progress, monetary sovereignty is a pre-requisite. Another Scotland is still possible."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Sterlingisation

Language English

Template Ireland?

Stephen Richard — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 18:55:31 +0000

Template Ireland?

Primary Author or Creator:

Stephen Kinsella

Stephen Richard Mon, 26/12/2022 - 18:55

Publisher:

Independence Live

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://independencelive.net/

Type of Resource:

Video

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

43:35 mins

Fast Facts

Does Ireland provide a cut-and-paste template for an independent Scotland?

More details

Scotonomics, episode 58

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Irish economy

Language English

Delivering Scotland's Circular Economy: A Route Map – A CommonN Weal Response

Stephen Richard — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 18:26:00 +0000

Delivering Scotland's Circular Economy: A Route Map – A CommonN Weal Response

Primary Author or Creator:

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Mon, 26/12/2022 - 18:26

Publisher:

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Waste-Routemap-Respondent-Fo…

Type of Resource:

consultation response

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

7pp

Fast Facts

"A true Circular economy should be based on the principles of:

demand reduction (more goods being leased and borrowed rather than purchased),
Producer Responsibility (where the producers of goods are responsible for the entire lifecycle of their goods as well as the packaging, waste and pollution they create – even inadvertently or when waste is disposed of improperly) and a
“Design for Zero” principle where goods are designed to fit within the Circular Economy and produce as little waste as possible and where waste, particularly packaging, is created, it can be easily re-used or composted."

More details

"The measures in this roadmap are often individually worthy of support though many of them are themselves insufficient – a single step forward where ten are needed – and the entire package of policy proposals is itself insufficient. While we certainly do not oppose many of the proposals in this consultation we do oppose the underlying premise of this roadmap as it will not lead to a Circular Economy even if every component part of it is implemented in full. We therefore call on the Scottish Government to scrap this plan, consider what a Circular Economy would look like if it was implemented in full and then redesign the roadmap so that that desired end goal is achieved. Once again, we suggest Common Weal’s own Common Home Plan as the basis for an improved route map."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Waste management

circular economy

Language English

How much do you know about Scotland's economy?

Stephen Richard — Sun, 25 Dec 2022 23:18:22 +0000

How much do you know about Scotland's economy?

Primary Author or Creator:

Business for Scotland

Stephen Richard Sun, 25/12/2022 - 23:18

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/take-the-scotland-the-brief-quiz/

Type of Resource:

Quiz

Fast Facts

Take the Scotland the Brief Quiz

https://www.businessforscotland.com/take-the-scotland-the-brief-quiz/

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

How much do you know about Scotland's economy?

Stephen Richard — Sun, 25 Dec 2022 23:18:22 +0000

How much do you know about Scotland's economy?

Primary Author or Creator:

Business for Scotland

Stephen Richard Sun, 25/12/2022 - 23:18

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/take-the-scotland-the-brief-quiz/

Type of Resource:

Quiz

Fast Facts

Take the Scotland the Brief Quiz

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Agency and Independence Needed to Escape the UK’s Economic Crisis

Stephen Richard — Sun, 25 Dec 2022 16:25:36 +0000

Agency and Independence Needed to Escape the UK’s Economic Crisis

Primary Author or Creator:

Bottom Line

Stephen Richard Sun, 25/12/2022 - 16:25

Publisher:

Bottom Line

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://thebottomline.scot/agency-and-independence-needed-to-escape-the-uks-eco…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Scotland needs the agency that comes with independence, in order to take the actions required to build a better future

More details

The UK Government’s “growth plan” was developed without any consideration of the needs and opportunities of the Scottish economy, a stark reminder that Scotland’s economic policy is characterised by helplessness rather than by the agency required to emulate the most economically successful countries, as argued in our first post on the importance of agency for Scotland’s economic future (https://thebottomline.scot/agency-and-helplessness-and-scotlands-future/).

This post has set out three measures that would boost economic growth and so begin to address the UK’s economic crisis:

Measure 1) Allow the immigration that the economy needs;

Measure 2) Rejoin the European Single Market; and

Measure 3) Incentivise innovation and entrepreneurialism to realise the huge economic potential in the transition to net zero.

These are only examples and successful policy needs to be about more than economic growth (as will be covered in forthcoming posts). They are examples of measures that have repeatedly been successful when implemented, including in the successful small advanced economies that have been outperforming the UK.

However, they are impossible to deliver in the UK political system since neither the Conservative Government nor a potential future Labour Government are prepared to argue for them, for fear of losing voters in the political environment that Brexit has created.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Understanding Scotland - Economy

Stephen Richard — Sat, 24 Dec 2022 15:50:26 +0000

Understanding Scotland - Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Diffley Partnership

Stephen Richard Sat, 24/12/2022 - 15:50

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Charlotte Street Partners

Publisher:

Diffley Partnership

Date Published:

01/11/22

Category:

https://www.diffleypartnership.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Understanding-S…

Type of Resource:

Survey

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

29pp

Fast Facts

The main concerns in November 2022 are about cost of living, economic depression and the NHS

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish National Health Service

Cost of Living

Language English

Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence

Stephen Richard — Sat, 05 Nov 2022 18:57:55 +0000

Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Government

Stephen Richard Sat, 05/11/2022 - 18:57

Publisher:

Scottish Government

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-a…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

112pp

Fast Facts

The Scottish Government’s proposals for the economy of an independent Scotland.

More details

Independence would enable the creation of an economy that works better for everyone who does business in Scotland. The proposals in this publication are designed to allow Scotland to:

• grow the economy in a way that works for everyone. Comparable European independent countries have national incomes that are, on average, £14,000 per person higher than in Scotland (£11,000 excluding Ireland). This is not performance that Scotland could match overnight, but it does demonstrate what is possible while maintaining more egalitarian societies

• demonstrate that there is no trade-off between greater prosperity and greater fairness. Indeed, as those independent countries show, economic dynamism and social solidarity reinforce each other

• avoid the instability and uncertainty generated by the current UK Government’s reckless approach to macroeconomic management

• take advantage of our massive renewable energy resources so they are the bedrock of the new independent economy. Hydrogen, for example, powered by renewable electricity, may be Scotland’s greatest industrial opportunity since oil and gas, creating or protecting up to 300,000 jobs

• build on the success of devolved decision-making by making the most of other key Scottish economic strengths

• escape the damage of Brexit and grow our international trade • put a partnership approach between business, unions, government, and others at the heart of economic policy-making

• make the wellbeing of our population the fundamental aim of that partnership approach

• give greater security to our workforce

• have a migration policy tailored to our needs, growing our working population, and boosting national income and productivity.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

After independence

Language English

State of the economy: October 2022

Stephen Richard — Sat, 05 Nov 2022 18:48:46 +0000

State of the economy: October 2022

Primary Author or Creator:

Chief Economist

Stephen Richard Sat, 05/11/2022 - 18:48

Publisher:

Scottish Government

Date Published:

24/10/22

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-a…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

26pp

Fast Facts

Recent developments in the global and Scottish economy and an analysis of the performance of, and outlook for, the Scottish economy.

More details

"This year has seen a significant deterioration in the medium term economic outlook. Rising inflationary pressures are causing a cost and wellbeing crisis for households and businesses, destabilising the recovery from the pandemic, giving rise to new economic risks and raising the prospect of a prolonged recession.

We have also had an unprecedented period of economic and financial uncertainty following the UK mini budget, which has significantly increased short term policy and economic uncertainty. This has been most visible in financial markets with increased borrowing costs and the need for the Bank of England to intervene to stabilise financial markets. The economic implications of this have already fed through to the real economy – economic activity, uncertainty, expectations and confidence have all been material impacted. Despite the reversal of many of the unfunded tax policies, the UK economy has already been impacted and has created more uncertainty for addressing the economic challenges ahead.

Inflationary pressures have been building since Covid restrictions were fully removed earlier this year. However, supply in the economy recovered more slowly than demand, adding to inflationary pressures. This was initially expected to be temporary as the economy adjusted, however the war in Ukraine and the subsequent constraints on gas supplies into Europe risks both a more prolonged period of energy price inflation and physical supply constraints.

In the immediate term, the outlook for businesses and households is significantly more challenging than expected at the start of the year. Business surveys for August and September are already indicating that activity is contracting while cost pressures remain elevated as businesses face a significant rise in energy prices, combined with rising staff costs.

Overall labour market conditions remain tight, with unemployment at near record lows, however there are indications that recruitment activity has moderated as the outlook for demand has weakened and business adjust activity to deal with increased cost pressures.

Household finances are being squeezed, with the rise in inflation resulting in further falls in median real incomes, which fell for their eighth consecutive month in September, and consumer sentiment falling to its lowest level since November 2020.

The Energy Price Guarantee for households and businesses to tackle the cost crisis is an important intervention. It should reduce inflationary pressures in the short term and reduce the impact on output, but is only temporary. Nonetheless, even with the energy price support in place, the energy price cap from October is double what it was last year and it is not clear what the long term response to prices will be for households and businesses given the review and the changes from April 2023.

Businesses in particular have little certainty around the outlook, while broader inflationary pressures, rising interest rates and a weak exchange rate are still set to place considerable new cost pressures on households and businesses at a time when they are continuing to recover from the pandemic. Therefore, we are likely to see significant changes in business models to deal with adverse supply shocks relating to energy and labour inputs.

This edition of the State of the Economy considers different future economic scenarios for inflation and unemployment while also reflecting on the uncertainty facing energy demand and supply as well as wage levels. It highlights how the impacts of inflation are uneven, with those in stable employment and able to protect their real income, alongside those that accumulated savings during the pandemic, are more resilient to inflationary challenges.

Finally, the current outlook for the economy is particularly complex given the different factors impacting the economy at this time and the market responses to UK Government fiscal policy announcements. All of which suggests a path of uncertainty over the winter period and more turbulence in relation to economic conditions. At best, we can expect a shallow recession but as our scenarios work highlights, risks are increasingly weighed towards a more prolonged disruption to output and economic activity."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The Cost of Living Crisis in Scotland: analytical report

Stephen Richard — Sat, 05 Nov 2022 12:11:50 +0000

The Cost of Living Crisis in Scotland: analytical report

Primary Author or Creator:

APS Group Scotland

Stephen Richard Sat, 05/11/2022 - 12:11

Publisher:

Scottish Government

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-a…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

85pp

Fast Facts

The cost of living crisis presents serious economic and social challenges for the least well off.

More details

There is evidence that people are changing behaviour in response to rising prices and static incomes, with many making difficult choices. This is particularly the case among low income families who are cutting back on food and/or heating, and are very concerned about the impact on their children.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Why is GERS C.R.A.P?

Stephen Richard — Sat, 22 Oct 2022 06:30:38 +0000

Why is GERS C.R.A.P?

Primary Author or Creator:

Richard Murphy

Stephen Richard Sat, 22/10/2022 - 07:30

Publisher:

Scottish Currency Group

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycq1dizIug8

Type of Resource:

Video

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

9:09 mins

Fast Facts

GERS is founded on a number of questionable bases.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence

Vicky Fairley — Tue, 18 Oct 2022 16:30:40 +0000

Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Government

Vicky Fairley Tue, 18/10/2022 - 17:30

Publisher:

Scottish Government

Date Published:

17/10/22

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-indepe…

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

Fast Facts

Scottish Government proposals for the economy of an independent Scotland.

More details

This paper outlines Scotland’s strengths and potential, and where the UK economy is not delivering for Scotland; explains plans for moving Scotland’s economy to one that is stronger and fairer under independence; and describes policies and proposals across various economic topics, including currency and fiscal policy, trade and borders, the labour market, immigration system and climate change.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Fantasy economics: alive and well on both sides of the border

Stephen Richard — Tue, 18 Oct 2022 09:18:50 +0000

Fantasy economics: alive and well on both sides of the border

Primary Author or Creator:

John McLaren

Stephen Richard Tue, 18/10/2022 - 10:18

Publisher:

Sceptical Scot

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://sceptical.scot/2022/10/fantasy-economics-alive-and-well-on-both-sides-o…

Type of Resource:

Opinion

Fast Facts

In Scotland, very little economic scrutiny takes place and so poor policy continues to bumble along.

More details

"There was inadequate debate within Scotland over the transfer of tax powers in the first place and this has been compounded by the ‘nothing to see here’ attitude towards the growing hole in our finances that has emerged over time.

If you think none of this matters then the lack of over £1 billion of additional public funding from higher taxes shows that it does.

Politics is about much more than simply political parties and, at present, that broader field is where the UK system still bests the Scottish one. Clearly there is the potential for the Scottish political system to improve on the UK one, which has obvious failings. However, that doesn’t happen by just having different policies in place, those policies need to work.

Where Scotland differs the most is in its lack of engagement on economic issues. If this continues then the £1.5 billion shortfall will continue to grow and taxes will continue to rise to compensate. Surely no-one wants this but then why does no one take it seriously?"

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Income tax

Public Debt

Language English

The Myths of Perpetual Growth

Stephen Richard — Thu, 06 Oct 2022 10:02:47 +0000

The Myths of Perpetual Growth

Primary Author or Creator:

James Mackenzie

Stephen Richard Thu, 06/10/2022 - 11:02

Publisher:

Bella Caledonia

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2022/10/06/the-myths-of-perpetual-growth/#respond

Type of Resource:

Opinion

Fast Facts

Growth is front and centre in the Tory Party’s ongoing meltdown

More details

An objective of growth alone is not just neutral on value questions. That mindset and economic model is actively hostile to a more equal society and a more habitable planet, because it’s always more profitable to externalise your costs onto society and onto the environment. That’s what Tory Ministers actively seek when they push “pro-growth deregulation”.

As Bobby Kennedy [said], gross domestic product “measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.” Let’s instead decide, as a society, what makes life worthwhile and start from there.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Why we need cosmological limits to growth

Stephen Richard — Sun, 02 Oct 2022 08:49:17 +0000

Why we need cosmological limits to growth

Primary Author or Creator:

Mike Small

Stephen Richard Sun, 02/10/2022 - 09:49

Publisher:

Enough

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.enough.scot/2022/09/10/why-we-need-cosmological-limits-to-growth/

Type of Resource:

Opinion

Fast Facts

We can see that changes to our consumption, production, and working patterns alone won’t be enough to sustain a profound transformation towards a just and sustainable world.

More details

To really change the systems destroying the world, we need to fundamentally revisit our relationship with nature, and dismantle the nature/culture divide that justifies the treatment of the Earth as a resource. We need cosmological limits to growth because they steer the discussion beyond socioeconomic transformations to the more active, cultural direction of degrowth processes. To change the way we see nature, and, eventually, act towards it, is a fundamental condition for constraining harmful growth. If we consider ourselves part of nature and practice reciprocal behaviours, then we can eventually reinscribe cosmological limits to growth. However, changing the way we think and feel (“sentipensar”) requires a cultural transformation of a magnitude that has not yet been acknowledged by degrowth scholarship.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

De-growth

Language English

Scotland the Brief

Stephen Richard — Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:43:18 +0000

Scotland the Brief

Primary Author or Creator:

Business for Scotland

Stephen Richard Thu, 29/09/2022 - 10:43

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/scotland-the-brief/download-scotland-the-br…

Type of Resource:

book

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

88pp

Fast Facts

Scotland the Brief summarises an in-depth investigation into the breadth, structure and quality of Scotland’s economy.

More details

Scotland the Brief began as a collection of illustrated Scottish economic facts published by Business for Scotland. Over two years, those graphics generated more than four million views and shares on our website and via social media. From that foundation, we’ve produced this book.

Scotland the Brief summarises an in-depth investigation into the breadth, structure and quality of Scotland’s economy. It is written in layman’s terms by Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp and colourfully illustrated by Stewart Bremner to make it easy to understand and absorb, as well as fun to read.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Scotland's Oil

Stephen Richard — Sat, 24 Sep 2022 09:09:53 +0000

Scotland's Oil

Primary Author or Creator:

John Jappy

Stephen Richard Sat, 24/09/2022 - 10:09

Publisher:

Clan Destiny Films

Alternative Published Date

2014

Category:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKYdh1ccAPY&t=171s

Type of Resource:

Video

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

8:53 mins

Fast Facts

Revelation of the amount of oil revenue taken by the UK Government

More details

The uses to which the North Sea Oil revenue was secretly put by concealing the amount of oil production.

Reduction of UK public debt, Military expenditure, tax concessions to the rich, expenditure as a consequence of unemployment, relieving the credit crunch of th4 1980's, excessive oil investment reliefs, etc.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Oil revenues

North Sea Oil

Language English

Soft Currency Economics II (MMT – Modern Monetary Theory

Stephen Richard — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 11:06:08 +0000

Soft Currency Economics II (MMT – Modern Monetary Theory

Primary Author or Creator:

Warren Mosler

Stephen Richard Sat, 03/09/2022 - 12:06

Publisher:

CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform

Alternative Published Date

1993

Category:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Soft-Currency-Economics-II-Monetary/dp/1482735431/ref=…

Type of Resource:

Book

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

94pp

Fast Facts

what is money;
why debt monetization and the money multiplier are myths;
how fiscal and monetary policy can be used effectuate full employment;
deficits do not cause countries to default on their debt unless that is the decision.

More details

Soft Currency Economics is the little book that could logically, in both real and nominal terms, legitimately challenge many of the core held beliefs of the mainstream classical and neo-classical schools of economics. It is a corner stone publication for the new, widely popular fresh approach to economics that has come to be called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). It explains with actual facts, not theory, and with non-technical language, the true operational realities of our monetary system (central banks and private banks).

The author, a 40 year 'insider' in monetary operations, and a very successful fixed income hedge fund manager, wrote this book in 1993 after witnessing the markets drastically discount sovereign debt on the errant belief that market forces could force nations into default on debt payable in their own currency, and that austerity was the only solution. This was contrary to the author's understanding of what are called fiat currencies, where governments always have the ability to meet all obligations in a timely manner. As a result of this experience, the author took up the task of educating government officials on how the monetary system operated with the hope that with this understanding they would be free to ensure that the government acted for the public purpose and achieved their stated goals of full employment and price stability. Initially published in 1993, this book will utterly convince many readers that what they thought they knew about monetary policy is wrong.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Money

MMT

Language English

The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and How to Build a Better Economy

Stephen Richard — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 10:37:18 +0000

The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and How to Build a Better Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Stephanie Kelton

Stephen Richard Sat, 03/09/2022 - 11:37

Publisher:

John Murray Press

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deficit-Myth-Modern-Monetary-Economy/dp/1529352568/ref…

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

352pp

Fast Facts

'Kelton has succeeded in instigating a round of heretical questioning, essential for a post-Covid-19 world, where the pantheon of economic gods will have to be reconfigured' Guardian'

More details

Kelton dispels six key myths that have shaped the conventional understanding of deficits as inherently bad, instead arguing that deficits can strengthen economies and lead to faster growth. This book is a triumph, writes Professor Hans G. Despain, shifting normative grounds of government spending away from the false and unproductive idea that deficits are irresponsible and ruinous towards the productive political activity of deciding which spending programmes should be prioritised.

She demonstrates that concerns about public debt overhang are ill-founded. Kelton argues that government spending properly targeted and government debt need not be problematic. Indeed, she argues that public deficits can be very healthy for an economy. Kelton contends bigger deficits can strengthen an economy and lead to faster growth. However, the conventional wisdom regarding deficits is that they impede economic growth and weaken the economy. Conventional wisdom warns against using ‘deficits to solve problems [when] we continue to think of the deficit itself as a problem’

Kelton shatters both the deficit hawk and deficit dove view of public debt. The view of public deficits as overspending is a myth, because a government deficit creates a surplus for someone else.

To begin with, Kelton takes on the myth that governments should be fiscally run like a household. This is false because the government is nothing close to a household or private business.

Second, to view public deficits as overspending is a myth, because a government deficit creates a surplus for someone else.

The third myth is that deficits burden the next generation . It is false that deficits make the next generation poorer, and it is also false that reducing deficits will make the next generation richer. Rather, the historical record shows high national debt creates wealth and increases the income of the next generation.

The fourth myth is that deficits crowd out private business. Kelton argues that deficit spending properly targeted stimulates, or ‘crowds-in’, private business growth.

The fifth myth is that deficits make us dependent on overseas nations. Instead trade deficits should be understood as a ‘stuff’ surplus: e.g. China gets US Treasury bonds, and the US gets Apple computers and other ‘stuff’.

The sixth myth is that Social Security and public health programmes are propelling us toward a fiscal crisis; here, Kelton shows the governments can always meet demographic and healthcare fiscal obligations.

ISBN 9781529352566

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Modern Monetary Theory

Language English

Putting citizens at the centre of Scotland’s economic policies

Stephen Richard — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 10:27:39 +0000

Putting citizens at the centre of Scotland’s economic policies

Primary Author or Creator:

Jim Byrne

Stephen Richard Sat, 03/09/2022 - 11:27

Publisher:

Bylines Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://bylines.scot/news/scotland/putting-citizens-at-the-centre-of-scotlands-…

Type of Resource:

Blog

Fast Facts

A call for a new model to derive economic polices. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a practical-based model that looks after the welfare of a nation's citizens.

More details

figure out how the economy works by looking at what it is doing – in practice? But who knows how it works in practice? Not orthodox neo-liberal economists. Perhaps ask people with experience in trying to manage it – or experience of trying to make money from it? People like Mark Carney who ran the Bank of England (BoE); he has an inkling of how it works, and former hedge fund manager, academic and economist Warren Mosler; also has an inkling of how it works. It was Warren’s experience that led him to bring together the ideas that became – a new model to derive policies from – a model called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

I’m not able to say that MMT accurately describes how the economy works or that it is the right way to think about the economy; but what I can say is that it tries to understand the real economy – not a theoretical one. And importantly, it is based on a different set of assumptions about what economic policies are for. They are not for controlling arbitrary figures related to interest rates, deficits, or debts. They are about looking after the welfare of a nation’s citizens. Whether I am right or wrong – that’s an aim I find attractive for an independent Scotland.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

MMT

Language English

LESS – A Journal of Degrowth in Scotland

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 20:34:44 +0000

LESS – A Journal of Degrowth in Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

LESS Editorial Collective

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 21:34

Publisher:

Enough

Alternative Published Date

2020 -

Category:

https://www.enough.scot/2020/11/25/less-a-journal-of-degrowth/

Type of Resource:

Journal

Fast Facts

LESS, a journal on degrowth, radical sufficiency and decolonisation in Scotland.

LESS questions and challenges dominant narratives about what economic progress means in Scotland, and sketches out alternative visions. The focus is on collective and democratic solutions to sustaining livelihoods that meet people’s needs while rising to the threats of climate change, ecocide and mass extinction, inequality, racism and the far right, and the interconnected oppressive and extractivist logic and mechanisms that feed all of those.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

De-growth

Self sufficiency

Decolonisation

Language English

TRUE PROSPERITY AND NEW METABOLISMS

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 20:27:00 +0000

TRUE PROSPERITY AND NEW METABOLISMS

Primary Author or Creator:

Mike Small

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 21:27

Publisher:

Enough

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.enough.scot/2022/06/20/true-prosperity-and-new-metabolisms/

Type of Resource:

Discussion Paper

Fast Facts

This is an outline of how we might situate degrowth in a history of alternative economics and regenerative movements, in the context of brutal new scientific and socio-economic realities. What does ‘true prosperity’ look like in times of socio-ecological crisis?

More details

The climate reality is leaking in to everyday life, from resource wars to flash flooding to extreme weather events to the refugee crisis. This reality can’t be ignored any longer. The second is that we have just lived through a (cliche klaxon ‘unprecedented’) collective experience that we are still unable to process in which the tendrils of state control and ‘benevolence’ have been stretched and questioned.

If the pandemic showed the fragility of things it also showed remarkable social resilience and solidarity. Now the war in Ukraine exposes again the ridiculous precariousness of a society based on externalities. Food and energy are outsourced and uncontrolled. We live in a world which is literally out of control and from our (relative) comfortable western lives we have assumed these benefits are safe and secure.

If the failure of the of the British state and the descent of living standards have become acute this is not likely to propel any change on its own.

The challenge for proponents of degrowth is to make manifest ‘radical abundance’ in a society experiencing extremes of poverty and deprivation. That is a political and a conceptual challenge, and one that takes place in a putative semi-state, in a landscape dominated by constitutional issues which tend to obscure all others.

Creating degrowth cultures and changing the narrative about how ‘wealth’ is created and what a ‘true prosperity’ would look like is the challenge ahead. This is a major challenge in a society deep in climate denial and suffering post-covid PTSD. But is it a challenge that comes in the wake of seismic climate failure and the UK emerging as a sort of failed state, a kleptocracy of elite rule. ‘True prosperity’ may seem an elusive and difficult aim but in the context of immiseration and climate failure the status quo is indefensible.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Watch: Our Scotland, our future

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 17:27:51 +0000

Watch: Our Scotland, our future

Primary Author or Creator:

Centre on Constitutional Change

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 18:27

Publisher:

Centre on Constitutional Change

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/news-and-opinion/watch-our-scotl…

Type of Resource:

Report

Fast Facts

What are young people in Scotland's views, hopes, and fears about Brexit and Scottish independence? We invited young people across Scotland to fill in a survey - here's what they had to say, including how they feel they can be included in discussions on constitutional change.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Constitutional change

Language English

UK’s Failure to Recover from the Financial Crisis

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 15:56:51 +0000

UK’s Failure to Recover from the Financial Crisis

Primary Author or Creator:

Bottom Line

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 16:56

Publisher:

Bottom Line

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://thebottomline.scot/uks-failure-to-recover-from-the-financial-crisis/

Type of Resource:

Analysis

Fast Facts

The UK has been one of the poorest performing economies since the financial crisis. The economic shock of the financial crisis was greater than most other advanced economies and the UK took longer to recover and even before Covid-19 was considerably smaller than it would have been had it matched the recovery achieved by others.

More details

Translating the UK underperformance to the Scottish economy, matching the 2007 to 2019 growth performance of the SAEs, would have added an additional £13 billion to the Scottish economy. In 2019 Scottish GDP (excluding North Sea oil and gas) would have been £181 billion instead of £168 billion[1]. In GDP per capita terms, this translates to £2,400.

This also matters for public services. Given that taxes raised in Scotland in 2019-20 were equivalent to 38.7% of GDP, the additional GDP would also have generated additional taxes, an additional £5 billion, increasing the tax revenues from £65 billion to £70 billion. This is very significant in the context of Scotland’s reported Current Budget Deficit of £11.9 billion in that year, demonstrating that the way to improve Scotland’s public finances is to boost economic growth, as the other SAEs have done.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Small economies

Language English

Long Term Performance of UK Economy and Small Countries

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 15:53:13 +0000

Long Term Performance of UK Economy and Small Countries

Primary Author or Creator:

Bottom Line

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 16:53

Publisher:

Bottom Line

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://thebottomline.scot/economic-growth/

Type of Resource:

Analysis

Fast Facts

The UK is in long term relative economic decline, falling further and further behind countries of a similar size and stage of development as Scotland. The choice that Scotland faces is to remain part of the declining UK economy, or to realise agency and take responsibility for improving the performance of the Scottish economy.

More details

UK economic growth has lagged behind the average for large and small advanced economies over the last four decades (pre-Covid), and in particular over the last two decades when the economic growth gap widened.

The economic growth gap between the UK and the small advanced economy group is particularly large, with all of the small advanced economies experiencing growth greater than the UK in the last two decades. On average the small advanced economies experienced cumulative economic growth that was double that of the UK between 1999 and 2019.

In 1980 the UK’s GDP per capita was in line with or exceeded most advanced economies. By 2019, the gap between UK GDP per capita and the small advanced economies average had increased to 38% and the UK had fallen to just below the average for large advanced economies (having been 13% ahead in 1980).

In 1999, only four of the 12 small advanced economies (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland) had a GDP per capita that was higher than the UK and by 2019, 11 of the 12 did.

In 2019, the gap between the small economy average and the UK was more than $16,200 (£12,700) per person.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Small economies

Language English

Agency and Helplessness and Scotland’s Future

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 15:46:42 +0000

Agency and Helplessness and Scotland’s Future

Primary Author or Creator:

Bottom Line

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 16:46

Publisher:

Bottom Line

Alternative Published Date

2022

Category:

https://thebottomline.scot/agency-and-helplessness-and-scotlands-future

Type of Resource:

Discussion Paper

Fast Facts

n the last two years, Scotland has dealt with two of the biggest economic shocks in history, the health, social and economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and Brexit.

More details

Scotland must address the immediate challenges of recovering from the economic and social consequences of Covid, learning to live with it, and adapting to a world where the UK is not a member of the EU. This is in the context adapting to the existential threat of climate change, an ageing population and rapid technological change. We also need to recognise that we are living in a world of radical uncertainty, where challenges and opportunities will emerge that we don’t currently understand. Radical uncertainty is when we have incomplete knowledge of the world or the connections between our actions and their outcomes – and where there is no means of resolving that uncertainty. The dimensions of radical uncertainty include obscurity, ignorance, vagueness, ambiguity, ill-defined problems and a lack of information. This is a world of uncertain futures and unpredictable consequences.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The Bottom Line

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 15:39:57 +0000

The Bottom Line

Primary Author or Creator:

David Simpson

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 16:39

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Roger Mullin, Graeme Blackett

Alternative Published Date

2022 -

Category:

https://thebottomline.scot/

Type of Resource:

Website

Fast Facts

The Bottom Line aims to invigorate the debate on the economics of Scottish independence.

More details

Whilst much has been said about the speculated costs of independence, there has been insufficient attention paid to the very real costs of a lack of independence. Put another way, there is a price, we argue a heavy price, to be paid by Scotland for its dependence on the UK state and resultant lack of agency.

What has become increasingly apparent since 2014 is that the UK economy is in a decades-long economic decline. There is evidence that the decline is accelerating and the negative economic impacts of Brexit will increase the risks of economic dependence on the UK. Scotland is not fulfilling its economic potential as part of the declining UK.

In contrast, the success of many small economies shows what can be emulated by an independent Scotland. There are many examples that show what is possible. The success stories of Ireland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, New Zealand, Croatia and Estonia each tell a different story, but there is a common thread, which is that strategic decisions made in the national interest have led to economic benefits.

The Bottom Line aims to invigorate and elevate the debate on the economics of Scottish independence by setting out:

– how and why independence will deliver economic benefits

– the costs to Scotland associated with economic dependence on the UK

This includes a quantitative analysis that gathers and reviews the evidence of how the UK economy is performing. This considers the traditional economic measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also wider measures such as sustainability and wellbeing.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Scotland's economy by the numbers

Stephen Richard — Thu, 01 Sep 2022 14:30:57 +0000

Scotland's economy by the numbers

Primary Author or Creator:

Nina dos Santos

Stephen Richard Thu, 01/09/2022 - 15:30

Publisher:

CNN

Date Published:

17/08/14

Alternative Published Date

2014

Category:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HI9OINowlqI

Type of Resource:

Video

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

2:31

Fast Facts

View of Scotland's prospect for independence before the 2014 refrendum.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

2014 independence referendum

Language English

The cost of living crisis is driven by greed and the Union

Stephen Richard — Mon, 16 May 2022 19:54:14 +0000

The cost of living crisis is driven by greed and the Union

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Mon, 16/05/2022 - 20:54

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Date Published:

20/04/22

Category:

https://www.believeinscotland.org/the-cost-of-living-crisis-is-driven-by-greed-…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Boris Johnson's and the Chancellor’s woefully inadequate handling of the economy, which has been battered by the pandemic, catastrophic events in Ukraine and spiralling energy prices, are in danger of leaving the UK stuck with the tag, “the poor man of Europe”.

More details

"Sunak’s spring statement came nowhere close to helping lower income households, and the Institute for Public Policy Research said they still faced an average cash shortfall of £320 this year. The IPPR said his statement was biased towards higher earners – who, it estimated, received four times the support that lower-income households did.."

"If an entrepreneur becomes a millionaire, that’s great, they took the risks, founded a business and created jobs. Large corporate salaries involve no real risk, as the economy has been restructured to ensure their success and often that they don’t even have to pay taxes.

There’s no getting away from such examples of apparent avarice and, despite the fact that similar claims are much more prevalent in the US, they deserve to be addressed in public on these shores.

But Johnson and Sunak etc are unwilling to do anything to upset their super-rich friends, family members and supporters. This leaves us with two key questions firstly, when exactly does the UK qualify as an oligarchy? And secondly, if Scotland can produce 100% of its energy requirements from renewables in 2022, which is the cheapest form of energy, when will people realise that the cost of living crisis is not only a cost of greed crisis but a cost of remaining in the UK crisis."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Cost of Living

Inflation

Language English

Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation

Stephen Richard — Sun, 06 Mar 2022 18:09:06 +0000

Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Government

Stephen Richard Sun, 06/03/2022 - 18:09

Publisher:

Scottish Government

Date Published:

01/03/22

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-national-strategy-economic-transfor…

Type of Resource:

Report

Fast Facts

Our vision for Scotland in 2032 is a wellbeing economy: thriving across economic, social and environmental dimensions, one that delivers economic prosperity for all Scotland's people and places.

More details

When we achieve the vision, Scotland will be recognised at home and throughout the world as:

an international benchmark for how an economy can de-carbonise
the best place to start and grow a business or social enterprise
a magnet for inward investment
a great place to live and work with high living standards
a nation where people and businesses can continually upgrade their skills
a leader in research and development
a country where economic power and opportunity is distributed fairly
an outward looking nation exerting a meaningful influence

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic Strategy

Language English

Ten-Year Economic Strategy Reviewed

Stephen Richard — Sun, 06 Mar 2022 17:59:36 +0000

Ten-Year Economic Strategy Reviewed

Primary Author or Creator:

Robin McAlpine

Stephen Richard Sun, 06/03/2022 - 17:59

Publisher:

Common Weal

Date Published:

30/03/22

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/ten-year-strategy/

Type of Resource:

Review

Fast Facts

The 10-year economic strategy is generalised, vague and backwards looking.

More details

The corporate domination of the economy has led to an enormous loss of company headquarters and the emaciation of the medium-sized industry sector which are key to quality jobs and research and development investment.

We need an industrial strategy, being forensic in identifying what kinds of economic activity generate the kinds of adjectives that appear throughout this report.

A serious strategy for Scotland would mean devolving economic power down to the region and indeed town level. Central belt policy has not helped in the past and won’t help now.

Rather than peering at itself in the mirror and telling us all how good it looks, a effective strategy would focus on doing genuinely useful things, things that a Scottish business figure or skilled worker or low-pay worker would look at and say ‘ah, that helps’.

Decarbonisation is only possible with concerted action across the public and private sectors, but as much of the private sector will continually seek delays, it must be driven by the public interest and not profit motives. It is that simple.

This is only one example of where economic leadership is needed. In supply chain resilience, in getting skills development right (again, not a module on how to market a pizza with new toppings), in recognising that existing business support services are not fit for purpose, in breaking central belt dominance – in all of it, bluster and PR leads nowhere.

Transformation does not happen because you say you want it to but because you make a serious contribution to it happening. That is leadership. Press releases are something else.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic Strategy

Language English

How Voters View the Economics of Independence

Stephen Richard — Sat, 05 Mar 2022 15:31:38 +0000

How Voters View the Economics of Independence

Primary Author or Creator:

JOHN CURTICE

Stephen Richard Sat, 05/03/2022 - 15:31

Publisher:

What Scotland Thinks

Alternative Published Date

February 2022

Category:

https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2022/02/how-voters-view-the-economics-of-indepen…

Type of Resource:

Blog

Fast Facts

Unionists need to win the economic argument in the eyes of voters; for nationalists, on the other hand, a draw might well be enough.

More details

Many voters currently either say that they do not know what independence might bring or indicate that they are inclined to the view that it will not make much difference.

This is potentially a crucial group. Contrary to what one might anticipate, they are not evenly divided between those who support independence and those who back the Union. Rather, according to Opinium, they are nearly two to one in favour of Yes – just as indeed they were in 2014. For some voters the feeling that independence will not make much difference either way may well be enough for them to back independence – much as it was sometimes enough for people to vote in 2016 in favour of leaving the European Union. Unionists need to win the economic argument in the eyes of voters; for nationalists, on the other hand, a draw might well be enough.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Opinion polls

Scottish opinion

Economic prospects

Language English

Rival economic nationalisms: Brexit and the Scottish independence movement compared

Stephen Richard — Thu, 30 Dec 2021 11:27:34 +0000

Rival economic nationalisms: Brexit and the Scottish independence movement compared

Primary Author or Creator:

X. Hubert Rioux

Stephen Richard Thu, 30/12/2021 - 11:27

Publisher:

Canadian Foreign Policy Journal

Alternative Published Date

2019

Category:

Canadian Foreign Policy Journal

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

17pp

Fast Facts

The Scottish government...intention to hold a second referendum on independence in the wake of Brexit...is illustrative of the wider dynamism of regionalism and secessionism.

More details

The recent resurgence of economic nationalism, protectionism, and “authoritarian capitalism” has been polymorphic and contradictory. Moves away from multilateralism have often been justified by pleas in favor of “free but fair” trade, and bilateral liberalization.

Britain is a particularly interesting case. Among the paradoxes having surrounded the Brexit process, one stands out which underlines another manifestation of this polymorphism: the Scottish government (SG) has indeed announced its intention to hold a second referendum on independence in the wake of Brexit, which is illustrative of the wider dynamism of regionalism and secessionism.

As Britain is trying to regain some autonomy from the European Union (EU) therefore, internal challenges to its sovereignty are also intensifying. Yet, so far, mainstream Brexiteers’ and Scottish nationalists’ pursuit of economic autonomy has had little to do with autarky. Both movements, therefore, highlight the fact that economic nationalism should not be reduced to protectionism. Although they are opposed in their stances towards the EU, mainstream proponents of Brexit and of Scotland’s independence indeed share relatively similar (yet largely incompatible) objectives: that of diversifying their country’s commercial relations, and that of regaining control over economic policy through enhanced autonomy from specific political ensembles.

Volume 26, 2020 - Issue 1 : Trade and Conflict, p8-24

Paywall

Full Document (link)

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/11926422.2019.1617759

Keywords

Protectionism

Language English

The Legacy of Brexit John Curtice

Stephen Richard — Sat, 25 Dec 2021 09:52:41 +0000

The Legacy of Brexit John Curtice

Primary Author or Creator:

John Curtice

Stephen Richard Sat, 25/12/2021 - 09:52

Publisher:

UK in a Changing Europe

Alternative Published Date

February 2021

Category:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/87864-Brexit-and-Beyond-Public…

Type of Resource:

Report

Fast Facts

The decision to leave the EU has helped fuel an increase in support for independence in Scotland, where, in contrast to the rest of the UK, voters backed Remain in 2016 by 62% to 38%

More details

however one looks at the evidence — and is duly mindful of the limitations of polls — Britain still looks to be more or less divided down the middle on Brexit. Indeed, we cannot even be sure that by the time the UK actually left there was still a majority in favour of leaving. There are two other reasons why the Brexit debate may not disappear soon. First, many voters’ commitment to one side or the other is strong — much stronger than their attachment to any political party. A NatCen survey in July 2020 found that 39% still said that they were a ‘very strong’ ‘Remainer’ or ‘Leaver’ whereas just 9% indicated that they were a ‘very strong’ supporter of any of the parties. Second, the age profile of Remain and Leave support suggests that, other things being equal, public opinion could become more favourable to EU membership over time. Support for Brexit is highest among older voters, who for the most part will leave the electorate earlier than the younger voters who form the core of Remain support.

There is perhaps one reason above all why Brexit is unlikely to disappear from Britain’s political agenda. The decision to leave the EU has helped fuel an increase in support for independence in Scotland, where, in contrast to the rest of the UK, voters backed Remain in 2016 by 62% to 38%. Sixteen polls taken since the summer of 2020 have on average suggested that 54% would now vote Yes to independence, while the figure stands at no less than 60% among those who voted Remain. A Scottish Parliament election will be held in May 2021 at which the SNP will be seeking support for holding another independence referendum. Should they win a parliamentary majority, a whole new chapter may well be added to Britain’s Brexit story.

pp 22-24 in BREXIT AND BEYOND: PUBLIC OPINION

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Freeports

Stephen Richard — Sat, 25 Dec 2021 09:37:09 +0000

Freeports

Primary Author or Creator:

Catherine Barnard

Stephen Richard Sat, 25/12/2021 - 09:37

Publisher:

UK in a Changing Europe

Alternative Published Date

March 2021

Category:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/freeports/

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

11pp

Fast Facts

Freeports are unlikely to be a magic bullet in the UK "levelling up" programme.

More details

Many economists would argue that the case for freeports is by definition a second best one. If tariffs are too high or regulations too burdensome, they should be lowered for the whole country. If, on the other hand, the level of tariffs or regulation is justifiable, why would they be lowered for one part of the country? In practice, therefore, the real case for freeports is in developing countries where either the customs administration is chaotic or regulation is too high/ dysfunctional, and there are political economy reasons why governments cannot change that for the whole country. That isn’t the case for the UK.

In particular, the practical benefit of tariff inversion is likely to be minimal in the UK. When the Government’s initial freeport consultation started in February 2020, it was not known what post-Brexit tariffs the Government was planning to introduce. Now that these tariff schedules have been published, it appears that the benefits of tariff inversion are likely to be negligible, because there are very few cases where tariffs on components are substantially higher than the tariffs on the final goods made with them. Put simply there is no tariff wedge to invert and so little economic case for US-style freeports. The only groups that are certain to benefit from freeports in the UK are businesses (presuming they decide to relocate operations to the freeports) and high net-worth individuals. The disadvantages of freeports, by contrast, will be experienced more broadly in the UK due to the public cost of maintaining them, which will be exacerbated by the necessity of providing financial incentives for businesses to relocate to UK freeports. Proponents of freeports point to job creation as a justifier for these costs. But the capacity of freeports to create additional jobs is unclear. The main impact of freeports – and any associated reductions in regulation – is therefore likely to be to relocate rather than create economic activity and jobs. That said, freeports in the UK could be a part of a broader industrial policy drawing on recent experience with enterprise zones. For example, they could be used to solve specific problems – perhaps attracting jobs to a lagging region, or focusing them on a specific sector which is particularly struggling due to tariffs, or in opening up new financing models for local authorities. But, as a general policy tool, it is doubtful that they can lead to the sort of transformation that the Government seems to be hoping for. And some key problems with freeports need to be borne in mind in designing the policy framework around them. Since freeports are very much on the agenda, for areas of deprivation being awarded a freeport would be a boost. But the more the Government advocates the benefits, the more disappointment there will be for those regions which miss out – and the more they risk losing out to areas which are awarded a freeport.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Freeports

Language English

Covid or Brexit?

Stephen Richard — Wed, 22 Dec 2021 11:45:32 +0000

Covid or Brexit?

Primary Author or Creator:

Anand Menon

Stephen Richard Wed, 22/12/2021 - 11:45

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Jonathan Portes, Alan Wager, Sarah Overton, Joel Reland

Publisher:

UK in a Changing Europe

Alternative Published Date

October 2021

Category:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Covid-or-Brexit-Report.pdf

Type of Resource:

Report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

11pp

Fast Facts

The short term economic disruption is largely due to Covid and is experienced throughout the world. The UK faces structural adjustments that are down to Brexit and are likely, over the medium to long-term, to make the UK...poorer.

More details

How much of the economic disruption is due to Covid and how much to Brexit. For the UK, the issue is not simply that of post-pandemic disruption, but also the early impacts of the decision to leave the European Union, replacing our membership of the Single Market and customs union with a minimal free trade deal.

This report explores the extent to which current problems in the UK economy are down solely to post pandemic disruption or also the result of the altered terms of trade and labour mobility with the EU.

Brexit-specific effects, resulting from new barriers to trade and labour mobility, are...clear. And while the impact of the pandemic will fade relatively quickly, that of Brexit will not. In some areas, such as trade and migration, it may even grow over time.

There is no evidence that labour shortages will lead to a high wage, high-skill economy; reducing labour supply does not boost productivity, the main driver of real wages. Reduced migration from Brexit may raise some wages but spending power could be eroded by higher inflation. In addition, Brexit so far has signally failed to boost our exports to non-EU countries.

The overall picture is one of short-term disruptions, mostly due to the pandemic, that are common to most countries. However, on top of this, the UK faces structural adjustments that are down to Brexit and are likely, over the medium to long-term, to make the UK somewhat poorer. This does not bode well for Boris Johnson’s vision of a “high-wage, high productivity” economy.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Covid19

Language English

New Gross National Income figures for Scotland

Stephen Richard — Tue, 21 Dec 2021 17:31:03 +0000

New Gross National Income figures for Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Graeme Roy

Stephen Richard Tue, 21/12/2021 - 17:31

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Mairi Spowage

Publisher:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Alternative Published Date

January 2019

Category:

https://fraserofallander.org/new-gross-national-income-figures-for-scotland/

Type of Resource:

Consultancy report

Fast Facts

The Scottish Government estimates that 94.5% of its GDP stays in Scotland.

More details

The predominance of company headquarters outside of Scotland – not helped by the loss of many Scottish truly domiciled firms in recent decades – has meant that a higher level of profits arguably flow out of Scotland than would be otherwise be the case. Indeed, many of Scotland’s largest firms – not just oil and gas and financial services but petrochemicals, professional services and whisky – are owned outside of Scotland. So although the products or services may be made here, the income doesn’t always stay in Scotland. .

In general, foreign investment into Scotland is often seen as a good thing – and it helps companies to grow and create jobs. It’s also something that successive Scottish administrations have actively encouraged – see, for example, the hype that often accompanies the EY Report on FDI every year. However, this will also have the consequence that some of these increased earnings will flow out of Scotland as investors earn returns on their investments and therefore widen the gap between GDP and GNI..

With the rise of digital technology and major multi-national firms such as Google, Amazon and others this issue is only likely to become even more important in the future – particularly where tax revenues are involved. This ongoing data work from the Scottish Government should help to inform such debates.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

GNI

Income generation

Language English

Understanding Scotland - Economy

Stephen Richard — Wed, 08 Dec 2021 17:20:27 +0000

Understanding Scotland - Economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Mark Diffley

Stephen Richard Wed, 08/12/2021 - 17:20

Publisher:

Diffley Partnership

Alternative Published Date

October 2021

Category:

https://www.diffleypartnership.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Understanding-S…

Type of Resource:

survey report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

29pp

Fast Facts

People are feeling the financial sting of the pandemic. They are pessimistic about the economic and financial outlook. And with concern over rising prices. There is evidence of dissatisfaction with prevailing economic indicators and models. There is an appetite for a different economic settlement.

More details

01 3 in 4 people in Scotland believe that general economic conditions are worse now than over the past 12 months, and a third report that their own financial circumstances have deteriorated over the same time frame.

02 62% anticipate worsening economic conditions over the coming year. and 32% expect their financial situation to deteriorate. Only 15% and 17%, respectively, expect economic conditions and their own finances to get better.

03 People in the most deprived fifth of communities were 10 percentage points more likely to report a deterioration in their financial circumstances than those in the most affluent areas, while 61% of the unemployed and 52% of the inactive and unable to work have seen their situation worsen.

04 37% of people report that their income is not satisfactorily meeting their costs of living, rising to 50% in the most deprived fifth of neighbourhoods. 81% of people anticipate spending more on utility bills in the coming year, and 59% expect to spend more on food and drink.

05 Less than a third (31%) of people are satisfied with their balance between paid and unpaid commitments, and 22% are dissatisfied. People in the most affluent areas are twice as likely as those in the most deprived areas to be satisfied with their work-life balance.

06 42% of people in Scotland believe that the pandemic has shown the need to move away from GDP as an indicator of success, with only 14% disagreeing, and 59% believe there is a tension between economic growth and environmental prosperity.

07 45% judge that economic growth is the most effective way of improving living standards and wellbeing for the average member of society, with only 26% disagreeing.

08 62% believe that the economy, as it is currently organised, works primarily in the interests of business. Only 12% saying it works in the interests of most people, while 72% say it does not.

09 3 in 4 believe that the pandemic has shown the need to re-evaluate who creates real value in the economy, and 62% say it has shown the need to move to a wellbeing economy.

10 Only 16% of people said that the pandemic would ultimately change the economy for the better, compared to 54% disagreeing.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Exclusive: research shows Scotland would have benefitted more from independence than devolution

Stephen Richard — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 12:15:03 +0000

Exclusive: research shows Scotland would have benefitted more from independence than devolution

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Fri, 05/11/2021 - 12:15

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://www.believeinscotland.org/research-shows-scotland-would-have-benefitted…

Fast Facts

Many countries have shown great success after independence, particularly in terms of GDP growth and developing their own currency. Overall, it can be suggested that full independence would have contributed to greater GDP growth for Scotland than devolution.

More details

Since 1990, 34 territories have become independent countries. Many of these new countries were formed as a result of the dissolution of the USSR and Yugoslavia during the 1990s. Others formed as a result of independence and anticolonial movements.

The 1990s was also a significant period for Scotland, with the reconvening of the Scottish parliament and the transfer of devolved powers. This article sets out to compare the different experiences of these newly independent countries and Scotland as a devolved nation, analysing the various currencies that have been adopted, their GDP growth rates and their successes as independent countries.

This will allow us to determine whether Scotland would have benefitted more from independence in the 1990s than from the limited powers obtained through devolution. We will also be able to offer a hypothetical picture of what an independent Scotland may have looked like, including its potential currency and the country’s probable financial situation.

EU members

First, let’s look at the countries that have joined the EU since declaring independence, and examine the currencies that have been adopted and the impact independence has had on their GDP. Of the countries formed since 1990, eight have become members of the EU, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Slovenia, Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia.

However, not all of these countries have chosen to employ the Euro. For example, Croatia and the Czech Republic introduced their own currency after independence. In fact, in Croatia the National Bank was formed in 1990, before the country was actually independent, and the new Croatian Dinar followed in December 1991. In May 1994 the Croatian Kuna replaced the Dinar, as part of the government’s stabilisation programme that followed Croatia’s involvement in the Bosnia-Herzegovina war. This stabilisation programme and the introduction of the Kuna brought inflation down from the 1993 rates of 1616% to 1.0% in 1994 and 3.7% in 1995. Since the introduction of the Croatian Kuna, it has remained stable and has effectively countered inflationary expectations.

Employing the Euro after independence is not a necessity and countries can join the EU without doing so

Some of the other newly independent countries adopted the Euro further down the line after independence and several years after joining the EU. For example, Estonia gained independence in 1991 and established its own currency – the Estonian Kroon – just 10 months later. Estonia joined the EU in 2004 but did not adopt the Euro until 2011. This highlights that employing the Euro after independence is not a necessity and countries can join the EU without doing so.

The figures show that on average the newly independent countries that have joined the EU have a GDP growth rate of 2.84%. Those that have joined the EU and adopted the Euro have an average of 3.07%. Those countries that are members of the EU but have their own currency averaged at 2.15%.

Non-EU members

So, what is the currency situation and average GDP rate in newly independent countries that are not members of the EU?

The data suggests that across most of these independent countries, a new currency has been formed. The average GDP growth since independence across all of these countries is 2.68%. Among those countries that have created their own currency, it is 3.09%. This suggests that the introduction of a new currency after independence may benefit GDP growth rates.

Scotland

Since the 1990s Scotland has held certain devolved powers. However, unlike the countries that we have examined throughout this article Scotland has not obtained full independence. As a result, it continues to use the British Pound as its currency. So, how does Scotland’s annual GDP growth compare to the newly independent countries that we have looked at? Since devolution was introduced until the present day, Scotland’s GDP growth rate averages at 1.4%. This is considerably lower than the averages we have seen across the many newly formed countries, both within and outside of the EU.

Conclusions

Ultimately, this article has highlighted that different routes and options exist for newly independent counties with regards to currency and EU membership. Many of the countries that have been analysed in this article have shown great success after independence, particularly in terms of GDP growth and developing their own currency. Overall, it can be suggested that full independence would have contributed to greater GDP growth for Scotland than devolution.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Prosperity

Language English

Scotland challenges inequality, while UK falls behind

Stephen Richard — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 12:00:09 +0000

Scotland challenges inequality, while UK falls behind

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Fri, 05/11/2021 - 12:00

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://www.believeinscotland.org/scotland-challenges-inequality-while-uk-falls…

Wealth

Fast Facts

It is evident that inequalities and uneven levels of deprivation across the UK continue to be a significant problem. However, it is also clear that Scotland is continually challenging these inequalities and the Scottish Government is working to ensure that levels of GDP per head in Scotland match the average of EU countries

More details

Deprivation is a useful measure to identify areas of the country that are experiencing significant disadvantage. The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) uses statistics on income, employment, health, education, access to services, crime and housing to calculate the level of deprivation across all regions of Scotland. Last year, levels of deprivation fell in Glasgow City, Renfrewshire and City of Edinburgh compared to SIMD 2016. Glasgow City demonstrated the greatest fall, from 48% of data zones in the 20% most deprived areas in Scotland, to 44%.

However, the UK Government has not privatised solving deprivation and so, a UK-wide index of multiple deprivation does not exist. Therefore, it is difficult to compare levels of disadvantage in areas of Scotland and other regions of the UK. As a result, this article will offer a comparison of GDP per head of population, one of the common indicators of deprivation and disadvantage, within the UK and across the EU.

10 Regions of UK with lowest GDP per head (2018) RegionGDP per head

Tees Valley and Durham (England) 21,882

Northumberland and Tyne and Wear (England) 24,960

Merseyside (England) 24,464

South Yorkshire (England) 22,104

Lincolnshire (England) 23,322

Outer London – East and North East (England) 22,626

Cornwall and Isles of Scilly (England) 22,096

Devon (England) 23,858

West Wales and The Valleys (Wales) 21,274

Southern Scotland (Scotland) 19,937

As this table demonstrates, of the 10 regions with the lowest GDP per head in the UK, only one area is within Scotland. Meanwhile, 8 of the regions are within England and one is in Wales. This suggests that economic inequality is a greater problem in the rest of the UK than it is in Scotland.

Furthermore, it is interesting to compare these figures to the EU-27 countries average GDP per head of population. Indeed, it has been implied that regions within the UK have struggled to keep pace with the rest of Europe since the financial crash in 2008.

In 2018, GDP at market prices in the EU-27 was valued at 13.5 trillion euros, equivalent to an average of 30,200 euros per person (approximately £26,195.63).

UK NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics)

Regions with GDP per head lower than EU-27 Average RegionGDP per head (£)% of EU-27 Average

Tees Valley and Durham 21,882 83%

Northumberland and Tyne and Wear 24,960 95%

Merseyside 24,464 93%

South Yorkshire 22,104 84%

Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire 25,367 97%

Lincolnshire 23,322 89%

Shropshire and Staffordshire 25,574 98%

Outer London – East and North East 22,626 86%

Dorset and Somerset 25,442 97%

Cornwall and Isles of Scilly22,09684%

Devon 23,858 91%

West Wales and The Valleys 21,274 81%

Southern Scotland 19,937 76%

Northern Ireland 25,981 99%

This table highlights that many regions across the UK continue to lag behind many European countries in terms of GDP per capita. Indeed, 14 NUTS 2 regions in the UK have a GDP per head lower than the EU-27 average. Of these regions only 1 is in Scotland, 1 is in Wales, 1 is in Northern Ireland and 11 are in England.

The major exception

While we have demonstrated that deprivation and inequality are rife across England, there continues to be one major exception – London. In fact, this is a huge part of the problem. In 2018, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that London recorded a 1.1% annual rise in output per person to £54,700. Meanwhile, in the North East, growth was only 0.4%, rising to just £23,600 per head. This shows a further widening of the per capita gap between the richest and poorest regions of the country.

We have recognised for years that the key issue at play here is that the UK is far too centralised around London and the South East. Seven years ago, at Business for Scotland, we said that “power, money, opportunity and influence has been drained from the rest of the country for generations towards a metropolis that has developed its own financial and capitalist culture which sits a world apart from the distant regions and nations that make up the wider UK” and unfortunately, this still applies today but to an even greater degree. Ultimately, this constant investment in London and the financial sector has resulted in huge disparity across England, and harmed the other nations of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Further mismanagement

The past year has undoubtedly been a challenging one for many countries across the world, with the COVID-19 pandemic having drastic consequences for economies and healthcare systems worldwide. However, adding a hard Brexit deal to the equation has only worsened matters, particularly with regards to deprivation. Indeed, studies have found that there is a high risk that the economic impacts of COVID-19 and Brexit will further increase regional disparities. In particular, already deprived areas such as the North East, Wales and Outer London are likely to be hardest hit by Brexit. Meanwhile, tourism dependent coastal communities and hospitality dependent cities such as Manchester and Liverpool are already facing drastic consequences as a result of COVID-19.

These struggles are only emphasised by the lack of support displayed by the UK Government. Indeed, new research has shown that if the Chancellor’s plans to cut Universal Credit go ahead, millions of individuals will be left without the income needed to afford the minimum living standard and the Scottish Child Payment will be undermined. Indeed, after years of austerity, followed by the chaos of Brexit and a global pandemic, such policy decisions will only cause further deprivation and inequality in the UK, particularly in England where great disparity already exists. This highlights that as a result of UK Government mismanagement and the already severe levels of inequality, certain impoverished areas in England are likely to suffer further in the coming months and years.

Southern Scotland

This region is the only area of Scotland that is within the 10 regions of the UK with the lowest GDP per head and holds a GDP per capita lower than the EU-27 average. However, it is important to note that this situation is gradually improving and the GPD per head of population in this region has significantly improved since 2011. In 2011, Southern Scotland’s GDP per head was £16,142. Meanwhile, the EU-27 average was approximately £22,346. This means that Southern Scotland’s GDP per head was approximately 72% of the EU-27 average in 2011. However, in 2018, this figure had risen to 76%, demonstrating the gradual increase of GDP per head and the closing gap between Southern Scotland and the EU-27 average.

Scottish Government Approach

So, let’s see why Scotland is leading the way in reducing such deprivation. One of the key ways to tackle deprivation is through education. Indeed, the Scottish Government recently announced the investment of £215million to benefit pupils in Scotland’s most deprived communities.

An area in which the Scottish Government has also invested in to reduce deprivation and inequality is affordable housing. Indeed, in the 2021-22 budget, £711.6 million was dedicated to affordable housing and a new £55 million programme was put in place to support town centres.

Another critical example that extends to the wider community is the Empowering Communities Fund. This programme was established in 2015 and has already had huge benefits for deprived communities in Scotland. To date, the programme has helped hundreds of projects that create change in disadvantaged communities through training, employment, healthy eating and volunteering opportunities.

It is clear that reducing inequalities and deprivation is a key ambition of the Scottish Government and one that is continuously being met, with levels of deprivation reducing across the country.

Conclusions

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Wealth

Language English

Independent wellbeing economy offers hope rather than Brexit chaos

Stephen Richard — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 11:16:54 +0000

Independent wellbeing economy offers hope rather than Brexit chaos

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Fri, 05/11/2021 - 11:16

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://www.believeinscotland.org/independent-wellbeing-economy-offers-hope-rat…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

Independence offers the only realistic chance of escape from a government seemingly hell bent on damaging our economy

More details

Get Brexit Done … three words which won the Conservative Party the 2019 UK general election south of the Border and the driving force which pushed Boris Johnson to desperately pull together a dangerous and disastrous trade ‘deal’ as the January 1, 2021 deadline approached.

Yet less than a year later Johnson’s government has moved from cheerleaders for the ‘deal’ – which decimated UK exports, particularly Scottish exports, and sparked chaos in supply chains leading to food and petrol shortages all over the country – to standing on the verge of a trade war with Europe.

We’ll soon find out just how serious that trade war threat is. Europe is due to respond to UK government demands that it agree to significant changes to the Northern Ireland protocol, ironically negotiated by UK ministers to avoid a hard land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

But this rather begs the question: does Boris Johnson really want a deal at all?

Reports suggest it is unlikely the EU will move far enough on protocol changes to satisfy Johnson and his cronies, although European politicians are experts on compromise and may yet make more concessions.

But that rather begs the question: does Boris Johnson really want a deal at all? Certainly Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney recently tweeted his doubts on that, accusing the UK of setting out a new “red line” just days before the EU was set to offer “serious” concessions. He said: “Are we surprised? Real Q: does UKG actually want an agreed way forward or a further breakdown in relations?”

It’s certainly true that the Prime Minister has previously revealed a preference for chaos, which is certainly what his trade ‘deal’ has brought to the UK.

If the Northern Ireland protocol disagreement can’t be resolved a trade war between the EU and the UK looks likely and the consensus is that this would hurt Britain more than Europe. There has even been one suggestion that the EU response could include tariffs on Scottish salmon.

Whether or not that happens it is certainly true that Scotland is suffering from the Brexit catastrophe more than the rest of the UK. The latest figures released by HM Revenue and Customs reveal that in the quarter ended in June 2021 Scottish exports decreased by 14% compared to the same period the previous year. That compared with export declines in England, Wales and Northern Ireland of 2.2%, 13% and 6.1% respectively in the same period.

Independence offers the only realistic chance of escape from a government seemingly hell bent on damaging our economy

All this surely adds power to the case for Scottish independence. It would, after all, offer the only realistic chance of escape from a government seemingly hell bent on damaging our economy and stripping powers from our parliament.

But we need to beware an argument increasingly put forward by Unionist supporters: that Brexit has caused so much trouble that we cannot risk adding independence to an already chaotic situation.

The truth, of course is that the chaos is entirely the creation of a criminally reckless UK government. Independence is entirely normal in most countries in the world, where it works perfectly well.

It is even more essential in Scotland as we emerge from the pandemic and can seize the opportunity to rebuild our economy based on the principles of wellbeing and equality rather than the greed and naked self-interest guiding the actions of the Westminster government.

An economy which works for the benefit of the people of Scotland and reflects their values and priorities.

Over the months ahead Believe in Scotland will show exactly how we can create that economy and offer hope for the future rather than the despair which is the inevitable result of being part of the Union.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

UK’s disastrous Brexit deal unravelling on three fronts

Stephen Richard — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 20:13:30 +0000

UK’s disastrous Brexit deal unravelling on three fronts

Primary Author or Creator:

Business for Scotland

Stephen Richard Thu, 04/11/2021 - 20:13

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Date Published:

04/11/21

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/uks-disastrous-brexit-deal-unravelling-on-t…

European Union

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

The UK’s disastrous Brexit deal is falling to pieces as Boris Johnson’s government finds itself fighting on three fronts - Fishing, Ireland, EU.

More details

The UK’s disastrous Brexit deal is falling to pieces as Boris Johnson’s government finds itself fighting on three fronts. An EU chief has already said the UK doesn’t want to reach agreement and prefers confrontation.

The problems arise from the trade deal the UK government negotiated as the deadline was running out to avoid a no-deal Brexit. It has so far resulted in a UK exports crash, food and staff shortages and a huge blow to the UK economy.

A recent poll by Believe in Scotland identified Brexit as the main driver persuading previous No voters to switch to supporting independence for Scotland.

The three current Brexit battlegrounds are:

Fishing

The Scottish- registered scallop dredger Cornelis Gert Jan seized by French authorities last week arrived back home early this morning but the diplomatic row with France over post-Brexit fishing rights continues.

The row started last month when the UK and Jersey denied fishing permits to several French boats. France then threatened a series of measures against the UK unless more licences were granted by 2 November. That threat was later lifted to allow talks to go ahead.

The scallop dredger was detained last week by French authorities …. its skipper Jondy Ward has been charged with illegal fishing without a licence

The scallop dredger was detained last week after French authorities said it did not have a licence. Its skipper Jondy Ward has been charged with illegal fishing without a licence in French waters. He still faces trial in France next August, although the case could be dropped before it reaches trial. He has said the trawler has been “caught in the middle” of the political row.

Later today the UK’s Brexit Minister Lord Frost will meet France’s Europe minister in Paris in a bid to resolve the disagreement. Although President Emmanuel Macron suspended his threats to allow the talks to go ahead measures such as a ban on British trawlers landing their catches in French ports could still be imposed.

Ireland

An agreement the UK government negotiated to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is at risk. The UK government wants widespread changes to the Northern Ireland protocol, which it blames for serious difficulties in moving goods from the Republic Ireland to Northern Ireland.

The EU has agreed to some changes but the UK government says they don’t go far enough and is reported to be considering triggering Article 16 of the protocol, which allows either side to suspend the agreement if it is deemed to be having a significant impact on everyday life.

Irish Taoiseach Micheal Martin has warned Boris Johnson there would be far-reaching implications for UK relations with the European Union if it seeks to suspend parts of the protocol.

Current British/EU relations have been described as very challenging and very serious

After meetings with EU and US leaders at the COP26 conference in Glasgow, Mr Martin described British actions in recent weeks as sabre-rattling and described current British/EU relations as ”very challenging and very serious”.

Two youths were arrested last night following “disgraceful” disorder in Belfast after a rally against the Brexit protocol.

The EU

The EU has rejected a British demand to end any role for European court judges in Northern Ireland. The European Commission’s vice president Frans Timmermans said yesterday it was not possible to agree while Northern Ireland is benefitting from being inside the single market.

Under the European Union’s founding treaties only the European Court of Justice (ECJ) can interpret EU law.

Mr Timmermans statement is the most explicit yet on EU objections to the UK moves. He said the EU’s stand is “welcomed in Northern Ireland” and would “make things more practicable and easier to deal with”.

UK Brexit minister Lord Frost will tomorrow meet the vice president of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic as the row threatens to escalate further. Mr Sefcovic has said he suspects the UK is reluctant to find a solution and is more intent on confrontation than reconciliation.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Fishing

Language English

Scotland the Brief

Stephen Richard — Tue, 26 Oct 2021 20:19:05 +0000

Scotland the Brief

Primary Author or Creator:

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Stephen Richard Tue, 26/10/2021 - 21:19

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/scotland-the-brief/

Public Finance

Type of Resource:

book

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

191pp

Fast Facts

All you need to know about Scotland's economy, its finances, independence and Brexit.

More details

Scotland the Brief answers the burning question – would Scotland prosper as an independent nation?

We also take an in-depth look into the UK Government’s economic record, which we compare to other Western and Northern European nations – with frankly shocking results. The fact is that you cannot truly understand Scotland’s economy and its finances until you have read Scotland the Brief.

Regardless of how you feel about independence, Scotland the Brief will open your eyes, engage and educate you by supplying you with the facts you need to truly inform your opinion on Scotland’s future.

Scotland the Brief comes in two versions:

The standard-sized A5 book nicknamed the Maxi contains a lot more information across 190 pages, backed up with a numbered list of 418 sources for facts throughout the book. A reference copy for anyone who wants to understand Scotland economy – The Maxi book retails at £7.50.
The Mini, an A6 sized book is the quick reference copy (a 74-page abridged version of the full-sized book) it fits easily into a jacket pocket or handbag and most of the pre-orders are for people who intend to keep one to read and one give to friends and colleagues. The Mini retails at £3.50.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Beyond GDP: here’s a better way to measure people’s prosperity

Stephen Richard — Sun, 17 Oct 2021 10:00:21 +0000

Beyond GDP: here’s a better way to measure people’s prosperity

Primary Author or Creator:

Henrietta Moore

Stephen Richard Sun, 17/10/2021 - 11:00

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Institute for Global Prosperity, UCL

Publisher:

The Conversation

Date Published:

12/10/21

Category:

https://theconversation.com/beyond-gdp-heres-a-better-way-to-measure-peoples-pr…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

Rather than the outmoded measures of growth, productidvity and income, research indentified 15 headline indicators - a prosperity index - that reflect the actual experience of well being and security for people.

More details

Early evidence suggests the UK government’s approach to levelling up will once again heavily depend on the same tired approaches – like targets for house building and job creation that have failed in the past to resolve regional and local inequalities and address social and economic exclusion.

New levelling up requires a sharing of knowledge. Allowing citizens, local government, businesses and community organisations to collaborate, make decisions, trial radical new approaches and rapidly evaluate change. Shared knowledge creates the opportunity to identify innovative policy options and new pathways to prosperity that are more targeted and more effective at improving quality of life.

Involving local people in the process creates a new way to understand, conceptualise and measure prosperity, inform local decision-making and equip communities with the tools, evidence and confidence they need to monitor progress and hold decision makers to account.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Prosperity

Language English

How to future-proof Scotland's economy. Open Minds on Independence #15

Stephen Richard — Sun, 10 Oct 2021 09:46:54 +0000

How to future-proof Scotland's economy. Open Minds on Independence #15

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Sun, 10/10/2021 - 10:46

Publisher:

The National

Date Published:

03/04/21

Category:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19208160.open-minds-independence-15-future-pr…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

Rapidly growing new and high-tech industries are also driving Scotland’s economy which is actually more diverse than the rest of the UK. Three areas are of particular importance: Life sciences, digital industries, and space industry.

More details

Life Sciences

- Scotland possesses one of the largest life sciences clusters in Europe and has the largest community of animal bioscience and aquaculture researchers, with more than 1000 researchers
- Veterinary science in Scotland wins more than 50% of UK veterinary funding. Scotland is renowned for its veterinary science expertise, with its two veterinary colleges at Edinburgh and Glasgow universities ranked first and second in the UK. Almost a third of the UK’s veterinary graduates are trained in Scotland each year
- Scientists at the Roslin Institute in Edinburgh were the first in the world to clone a mammal, which was famously named Dolly the Sheep. The institute has helped generate annual productivity gains of £247m through its breeding and genetics research
- In Scotland, 170 life science start-ups with a success rate of 85% were created between 2009-15

Digitial Industries

- Edinburgh was the fastest growing tech hub in the UK in 2017 and has been ranked the most active tech and data innovation city in the UK after London
- The number of firms in Scotland’s digital games sector soared 1800% between 2008 and 2019
- Scotland’s software development sector includes around 7500 companies employing more than 42,000 people and that sector grew 90% in the decade leading up to 2017
- The digital games industry has 1537 full-time games development staff and supports another 2810 jobs
- 75% of Scottish digital tech companies boosted their sales in 2018, compared with 68% in 2017

Space Industries

- Edinburgh was the fastest growing tech hub in the UK in 2017 and has been ranked the most active tech and data innovation city in the UK after London
- The number of firms in Scotland’s digital games sector soared 1800% between 2008 and 2019
- Scotland’s software development sector includes around 7500 companies employing more than 42,000 people and that sector grew 90% in the decade leading up to 2017
- The digital games industry has 1537 full-time games development staff and supports another 2810 jobs
- 75% of Scottish digital tech companies boosted their sales in 2018, compared with 68% in 2017

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Life sciences in Scotland

Aerospace industry

Digital industries

Language English

This is how independence can boost our innovation nation status

Stephen Richard — Sun, 10 Oct 2021 09:39:09 +0000

This is how independence can boost our innovation nation status

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Sun, 10/10/2021 - 10:39

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Believe in Scotland

Publisher:

The National

Date Published:

30/03/21

Category:

Research

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19198918.independence-can-boost-innovation-na…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

One of the key drivers of a successful economy is innovation. Scotland has a proven track record of being a highly innovative nation. This can be one of the foundations upon which to build an exciting economic future. Main elements are information technology, life sciences, software and gaming, and space technologies.

More details

The nature of innovation is changing. We often think of it in terms of those eureka moments when a real breakthrough is discovered or a startling new idea shocks and captivates the world. And mind-blowing discoveries do indeed take place. However, the more mundane truth is such moments are rare. Real economic growth comes from what is known as close to market, applied or downstream innovation.

The latter is all about adding value to products, understanding customer needs, analysing niches, proof of concept and testing prototypes. The need for businesses of all sizes to connect to and partner with universities conducting relevant research is key. The fact we have four universities in the top 200 in the world for research – more than any other nation on a per-head basis (that has more than one university) – is a real advantage. Scotland needs to invest in the changing face of innovation and promote those changes so our economy can grow in added-value sectors and create more highly skilled, highly paid, better quality jobs. But the fact is this is another area in which our position within the Union holds Scotland back. The UK’s poor performance in R&D spending in comparison to European countries makes it clear that its innovation policy is lacking in ambition and that this negatively impacts on Scotland.

Investing public money in innovation and cutting-edge industries will be a key plank of the economic strategy of an independent Scotland. We will create bespoke innovation policies for Scotland, rather than a one-size-fits-all policy that caters only for London and the south-east’s finance and service industry-dominated needs.

An independent Scotland would take control of the powers needed to turbocharge innovation and serve as a key to building a better future for this country and those who live here. Let’s make things again in an independent Scotland, in fact let’s make clever innovative things that demand high prices and create higher paid jobs and sell them to the world.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Research Scotland.

Technological innovations Scotland.

Language English

Only independence can fix damage of Brexit, Open Minds #13

Stephen Richard — Sun, 10 Oct 2021 07:23:56 +0000

Only independence can fix damage of Brexit, Open Minds #13

Primary Author or Creator:

The National

Stephen Richard Sun, 10/10/2021 - 08:23

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Believe in Scotland

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Date Published:

20/08/21

Category:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19191851.open-minds-13-independence-can-fix-d…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

Scotland's economy benefits from a range of advantages that few other countries of similar size can match. Our natural wealth is a key foundation stone for a prosperous future as an independent country. It is reasonable to believe that a country as naturally wealthy as Scotland would thrive if it were to gain the power to manage for its benefit.

More details

A poll found that 52% of UK businesses had been disrupted by Brexit. Three quarter of those expected the problems to last a long time. Of those companies which do a moderate or large amount of trading with Europe, 60% expect the situation to get worse rather than better.

Westminster’s obsession with Brexit will never allow them to reconsider the decision to leave Europe. Scotland is disproportionately badly hit by Brexit.

An opinion poll showed that a desire to rejoin Europe was the issue that could drive a majority independence vote in a future independence referendum.

Luckily Scotland has an alternative, all we need to do is grasp it. Now that the Leave vote in the rest of the UK has removed Scotland from the EU we have to rejoin and that will take time. We may have to wait as long as four years to become full members but we can in the shorter term join the European Economic Area (the EU Single Market) without being full EU members. That would take less time as Scotland already meets all the criteria having been EU members for so long. In other words, a Norway style deal that also gives us flexibility in our trading relationship with the rest of the UK after independence.

When we do so Scotland’s many vital advantages and significant untapped potential will allow us to develop our already successful exporting record without being held back by the UK. Escaping the dead hand of Westminster policies and the pressing new dangers of Brexit will be a huge boon to Scottish exports and the Scottish economy. They will thrive with the bespoke policies and attention they can only receive in an independent Scotland.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Exports

Language English

The UK’s Brexit mismanagement, Open Minds on Independence #11

Stephen Richard — Sun, 10 Oct 2021 07:06:16 +0000

The UK’s Brexit mismanagement, Open Minds on Independence #11

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Sun, 10/10/2021 - 08:06

Publisher:

The National

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19174983.open-minds-independence-11-uks-brexi…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

There were a number of mistakes made in negotiating a Brexit arrangement.
This was imposed on Scotland against its will. It has turned out to be a disaster for key industries.

1. Ignoring the wishes of Scotland and the other devolved nations

2. Sticking so rigidly to “getting Brexit done” that it made an acceptable trade deal impossible. It was immediately apparent there were serious problems.

3. Underestimating just how big a problem taking Northern Ireland out of the EU would be.

4. Using Brexit as an attack on devolution and to reduce the powers of the Scottish Parliament

5. Breaking promises to keep Scotland involved and informed in negotiations

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Political Activism and Agency under Austerity and Brexit

Stephen Richard — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 09:55:14 +0000

Political Activism and Agency under Austerity and Brexit

Primary Author or Creator:

Tom Montgomery

Stephen Richard Wed, 06/10/2021 - 10:55

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Maria Grasso

Alternative Published Date

2019

Category:

https://uk.bookshop.org/books/contested-britain-brexit-austerity-and-agency/978…

Type of Resource:

book

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

14pp

Fast Facts

A study of activism against austerity in Britain from the financial crisis of 2008 through the Brexit vote of 2016. It finds that austerity has been a key factor in creating new dividing lines in British society and intensifying old divisions.

More details

A distinctive and original analysis of how the politics of the UK and the lives of British citizens have evolved in the first decades of the twenty-first century, this book provides an interdisciplinary critical examination of the roots, ideology and consequences of austerity politics, the Brexit vote and the rise of populist politics in Britain. Bringing together case studies and perspectives from an array of international researchers across the social sciences, it dissects the ways that the UK has become increasingly contested with profound differences of geography, generation, gender, 'race' and class, and considers agency as a key concept to understand the links between austerity and Brexit.

pp 45-58 in: Contested Britain: Brexit, Austerity and Agency

edited by Marius Guderjan and Hugh Mackay

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Austerity

Political participation

Language English

Contesting the austerity and “welfare reform” narrative of the UK Government: Forging a social democratic imaginary in Scotland

Stephen Richard — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 09:36:16 +0000

Contesting the austerity and “welfare reform” narrative of the UK Government: Forging a social democratic imaginary in Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Jay Wiggan

Stephen Richard Wed, 06/10/2021 - 10:36

Publisher:

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy

Category:

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy

Social welfare

Fast Facts

The Scottish government fuses nationalism with social wage and social investment concepts. It conjures up images of a prosperous, community led, egalitarian welfare state as a future reality. It recuperates “welfare” as a collective endeavour. It describes austerity as a poor distribution of resources between groups and within the UK as the “problem”.

More details

Purpose

The “welfare reform” narrative of successive Conservative-led UK Government emphasises public spending reductions, individual responsibility and strengthening of benefit conditionality. The purpose of this paper is to cast light on how this narrative is challenged and disrupted by the Scottish Government through their articulation of a social democratic welfare state imaginary.

Design/methodology/approach

The study draws together a decentred governance perspective that emphasises ideational tradition for understanding (re)construction of governance (Bevir, 2013, p. 27) with critical discourse analysis to examine how welfare interpretations/representations are carried into the policy and public arena. The Scottish Government documents are deconstructed to interrogate the ideas and form of their emergent discourse and its relation to the independence referendum and welfare governance reform.

Findings

Responding to changing socio-economic contexts and welfare governance, the Scottish Government has developed a discourse of modernisation rooted in British and Scandinavian social democratic traditions. Fusing (civic) nationalism with social wage and social investment concepts, they conjure up imaginaries of a prosperous, solidaristic, egalitarian welfare state as a feasible future reality, recuperating “welfare” as a collective endeavour and positioning a maldistribution of power/resources between groups and constituent countries of the UK as the “problem”.

Originality/value

The paper is of value to those interested in how changes to centralised-hierarchical welfare governance can open new spaces for actors at different levels of government to articulate counter-hegemonic discourses and practices. Its originality lies in the analysis of how the Scottish Government has reworked social democratic traditions to weave together a welfare imaginary that directly contests the problem-solution narrative of successive Conservative-led UK Governments.

paywall

Full Document (link)

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJSSP-04-2016-0050/full/html

Keywords

Austerity

Democracy

social welfare

Language English

Left-wing regionalist populism in the ‘Celtic’ peripheries: Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party’s anti-austerity challenge against the British elites

Stephen Richard — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 09:22:11 +0000

Left-wing regionalist populism in the ‘Celtic’ peripheries: Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party’s anti-austerity challenge against the British elites

Primary Author or Creator:

Emanuele Massetti

Stephen Richard Wed, 06/10/2021 - 10:22

Publisher:

Comparative European Politics

Date Published:

22/10/18

Category:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41295-018-0136-z

Type of Resource:

Academic Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

17pp

Fast Facts

This article shows that the SNP and Plaid Cymru have adopted a left-wing populist discourse, based on a critique of austerity policies.

More details

The article shows how the main regionalist parties in Scotland and Wales—the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru—have engaged with a populist discourse in the wake of the Great Recession. Based on a qualitative analysis of party manifestos and party-elite interviews, the article shows that the two parties have adopted a left-wing populist discourse, based on a critique of austerity policies. In this way, albeit from distinctively regionalist perspective, they performed roles very similar to that of other contemporary left-wing populist parties, particularly in Southern Europe. The Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru were able to frame their anti-austerity stances within a populist discourse because all three traditional British parties shared a preference for pro-austerity economic policies. Therefore, in Laclau’s terms, the two ‘Celtic’ parties’ attack on austerity constituted an open challenge to the hegemonic discourse of the British ‘power bloc’. Analogous to the expansion of a right-wing anti-establishment protest in British politics (monopolized by the UKIP), the two parties (particularly the Scottish one) capitalized on the expansion of a left-wing populist area. This strategy has lately become less viable because Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party broke with the pro-austerity consensus among British elites.

Comparative European Politics 2018, volume 16, pages 937–953. Paywall

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Austerity

Politics

Scottish National Party

Language English

Nationalism and the politics of austerity: comparing Catalonia, Scotland, and Québec

Stephen Richard — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 09:15:33 +0000

Nationalism and the politics of austerity: comparing Catalonia, Scotland, and Québec

Primary Author or Creator:

Daniel Beland

Stephen Richard Wed, 06/10/2021 - 10:15

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Andre Lecours

Publisher:

National Identies

Date Published:

17/12/19

Category:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14608944.2019.1660312

Public Finance

Type of Resource:

Academic Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

18pp

Fast Facts

This analysis of the impact of austerity on nationalism stresses the role of blame as it interacts with political institutions and fiscal pressures.

More details

This article examines the impact of austerity on the politics of nationalism in Catalonia, Scotland, and Québec. In Catalonia, the recession and subsequent politics of austerity aided a secessionist turn triggered by an important judgement of the Spanish Constitutional Court. In Scotland, the Conservative austerity policies gave powerful arguments to the Scottish National Party in the context of the 2014 referendum on independence. In contrast, in Québec, austerity had no visible impact on nationalism. Our analysis of the impact of austerity on nationalism stresses the role of blame assignation as it intersects with political institutions and fiscal pressures.

National Identities Volume 23, 2021 - Issue 1, pp 41-57. Paywall

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The SNP must rethink its economic model for an independent Scotland

Stephen Richard — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 08:45:14 +0000

The SNP must rethink its economic model for an independent Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Laurie Macfarlane

Stephen Richard Wed, 06/10/2021 - 09:45

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Open Democracy

Publisher:

Open Democracy

Date Published:

27/10/20

Category:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/snp-must-rethink-its-economic-model…

Type of Resource:

Assessment report

Fast Facts

A critique of the Growth Commission's report. "Far from being an asset to the independence cause, the Growth Commission is its biggest liability. It’s time, as we say, ‘tae think again’."

More details

The Growth Commission has not escaped criticism from within the SNP ranks. At the party’s 2019 spring conference, members successfully amended the leadership’s motion to endorse the Growth Commission’s currency recommendations by voting through an amendment calling for a new currency to be established “as soon as practicable after independence day”. . At the party's 2020 conference next month, activists hope to land another blow to the Growth Commission plans by putting forward a motion calling for the establishment of a Scottish central bank within a committed time frame. Whether this will be successful remains to be seen.

In 2014, the pro-UK parties entered the referendum campaign with a commanding lead in the polls. But overconfidence, a lacklustre campaign and lack of a compelling vision meant that Scots came very close to voting for independence. This time around, the fatal flaws in the Growth Commission’s proposals means it’s possible the reverse could happen.

None of this is to say that Scotland cannot flourish as an independent country. With the right plan on currency, economic model and transition, there is no reason why Scotland could not become a successful independent nation. But that plan needs to come from the 2020s, not the 1990s. And it needs to come from a broad cross section of civil society, not just business groups.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Scottish independence trading costs calculated

Stephen Richard — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 11:32:47 +0000

Scottish independence trading costs calculated

Primary Author or Creator:

Douglas Fraser

Stephen Richard Tue, 05/10/2021 - 12:32

Additional Author(s) / Creators

BBC

Date Published:

03/02/21

Category:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55921961

Type of Resource:

web page

Fast Facts

There may be significant economic costs resulting from independence. However, there is no reason Scotland cannot prosper as other small nations have. This report looks at the cumulative effect over 15 years.

More details

A generally skeptical account the prospects for international trade.

A new economic study into trade concludes that the costs of Scottish independence would be two to three times greater than the impact from Brexit, and that joining the European Union would do little to offset that cost.
The SNP response is that there is no reason why Scotland cannot emulate the success of other countries of a similar size.
The report, from the London School of Economics, is set to fuel the post-Brexit debate about independence.
Other questions concern the conditions under which Scotland could get faster economic growth, the costs and benefits of remaining in the UK post-Brexit, and whether the economic arguments will make any difference to the outcome.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Borders

Language English

A Guide to Scottish GDP

Stephen Richard — Sun, 03 Oct 2021 12:09:10 +0000

A Guide to Scottish GDP

Primary Author or Creator:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Stephen Richard Sun, 03/10/2021 - 13:09

Publisher:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-gdp-guide/

Type of Resource:

Guide

Fast Facts

Scotland's GDP per head is at the average of the OECD countries, just behind Great Britain.
Gross Vaue Added per head - the most being 3 times the least area.
Disposable income per head has much less variation.
The Human Development Index shows Scotland very close to the UK

More details

This guide shows the difference between measures of GDP. The guide shows how the Scottish economy compares in the UK and the world. Scotland's GDP per head is at the average of the OECD countries, just behind Great Britain. There are wide regional differences in Gross Vaue Added per head of the most value being 3 times the least area. Disposable income per head has much less variation (38%). The Human Development Index shows Scotland very close and recently narrowing the small gap with the UK

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Human Development Index

Income inequality

Household Income

Value Added

Language English

State of the economy

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:51:10 +0000

State of the economy

Primary Author or Creator:

Chief Economic Advisor

Stephen Richard Sat, 02/10/2021 - 19:51

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Scottish Government

Alternative Published Date

2020 -

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/collections/state-of-the-economy/

Type of Resource:

triannual government report

Fast Facts

This is the three times a year report on the Scottish economy in an international context.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Scottish Development International

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:37:44 +0000

Scottish Development International

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Development international

Stephen Richard Sat, 02/10/2021 - 19:37

Alternative Published Date

2020 -

Category:

Type of Resource:

website

Fast Facts

A web site that presents the Scottish economy from an international business and investment perspective.

Full Document (link)

https://www.sdi.co.uk/

Keywords

Language English

SCOTTISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:33:13 +0000

SCOTTISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish International Development

Stephen Richard Sat, 02/10/2021 - 19:33

Alternative Published Date

2021-

Category:

More on Scotland's recent global investments

Type of Resource:

Web site

Fast Facts

This gives the Scottish economic statistics from an international investment point of view.

More details

Foreign direct investment in Scotland

Many global businesses which share our values have already chosen to locate, operate and grow in Scotland and we would love you to join them. We are here for you throughout the journey – you will be supported before, during and after you locate in Scotland.

Scotland is the most attractive location in the UK outside of London for foreign direct investment (FDI), according to the EY Attractiveness Survey 2021.

The survey revealed that Edinburgh was ranked the number one city in the UK for FDI projects outside of London. Glasgow and Aberdeen were also within the top ten list of UK cities.

The survey also found that Scotland’s digital technology, agri-food and business services industries generated the highest number of inward investment projects.

Edinburgh, Scotland's capital, is the UK's most entrepreneurial city, topping UK cities with the most promising growth prospects, according to the Lambert Smith Hampton's 2019 Vitality Indexexternal link which will open in a new window.

Edinburgh is also ranked fourth in the world for quality of life in a recent survey of 56 cities around the world by Deutsche Bank, 2019external link which will open in a new window.

Full Document (link)

https://www.sdi.co.uk/business-in-scotland/scottish-economy-overview

Keywords

Language English

Economic commentary

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:26:51 +0000

Economic commentary

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Enterprise

Stephen Richard Sat, 02/10/2021 - 19:26

Publisher:

Scottish Enetrprise

Alternative Published Date

2021-

Category:

https://www.scottish-enterprise.com/learning-zone/research-and-publications/com…

Type of Resource:

government report

Fast Facts

Monthly update on global, UK and Scottish economic trends and performance, drawn from a wide range of economic indicators and commentaries.

More details

The monthly reports cover Scottish and UK economic data current business sentiment by sector, and forecasts for these areas.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Economy of Scotland

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:18:09 +0000

Economy of Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Wikipedia

Stephen Richard Sat, 02/10/2021 - 19:18

Alternative Published Date

2021-

Category:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland

Type of Resource:

Wikipedia

Fast Facts

The economy of Scotland had an estimated GDP of $205 billion in 2020. This includes oil and gas extraction in Scottish waters.

More details

Scotland's economy has been closely aligned with the economy of the rest of the UK) and England has been its main trading partner. In 2017, Scotland's exports totalled £81.4 billion, of which £48.9 billion (60%) was with rUK, £14.9 billion with the EU, and £17.6 billion with other parts of the world. Scotland was one of the industrial powerhouses of Europe from the time of the Industrial Revolution onwards, being a world leader in manufacturing.

Scotland has seen a decline in the importance of both manufacturing industries and primary-based extractive industries. This has, however, been combined with a rise in the service sector of the economy, which has grown to be the largest sector in Scotland. The governments which involve themselves in Scotland's economy are largely the central UK Government (responsible for reserved matters) and the Scottish Government (responsible for devolved matters) via HM Treasury.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland

Stephen Richard — Thu, 30 Sep 2021 08:04:43 +0000

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Wikipedia

Stephen Richard Thu, 30/09/2021 - 09:04

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or Publisher

Publisher:

Wikipedia

Date Published:

19/08/21

Category:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Expenditure_and_Revenue_Scotland

Type of Resource:

Wikipedia

Fast Facts

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) is an annual estimate of the Scottish economy as part of the United Kingdom. It was first published in 1992, and yearly since 1995, with the exceptions of 2007 where there was no report due to a methodology review, and 2016 where there were two annual reports due to an acceleration of publishing timescale.

More details

GERS was first published in 1992 by the Scottish Office under the Conservative Party government of Prime Minister John Major, at a time when the government was resisting calls for Scottish devolution. Its overall purpose was to estimate the overall UK borrowing requirement for Scotland - it was created at this time because Scottish Office ministers thought due to then-low oil prices, the report would show Scotland gained far more from the UK Treasury than it received. In a leaked memo the then Secretary of State for Scotland Ian Lang wrote "I judge that [GERS] is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.”

The methodology of this first report was questioned. In 2008 GERS for 2006/7 was published, including data for 2005/2006. This was the first fundamental review of GERS since it achieved National Statistics status in 2005, and also the first under the new SNP government. A number of presentation, data source and methodology changes were made. None of the changes radically altered the results of the analysis of Scotland's fiscal balance.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

FFS explains: what is the GERS report and what can it tell you?

Stephen Richard — Thu, 30 Sep 2021 08:01:41 +0000

FFS explains: what is the GERS report and what can it tell you?

Primary Author or Creator:

The Ferret

Stephen Richard Thu, 30/09/2021 - 09:01

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or Publisher

Date Published:

18/08/21

Category:

https://theferret.scot/ffs-explains-what-is-gers-and-what-can-it-tell-you/

Type of Resource:

Fact check

Fast Facts

Published annually, the report details the difference between Scotland’s tax revenues and its public service expenditure. This is used to calculate a net fiscal balance. GERS is produced by Scottish Government statisticians, who decide on the methodology used. The report gives a picture of Scotland’s current public sector revenue and expenditure. The report tells us little about Scotland’s long term financial prospects after independence.

More details

The report gives a picture of Scotland’s current public sector revenue and expenditure. It tells you how much money was raised by the Scottish Government, how much Scotland paid for the services it used and how well the revenues raised covered these costs. In recent years, the headline figure reported from GERS has been Scotland’s national deficit – essentially how much more Scotland spends on services than it raises in tax. While Scotland does not technically have a deficit as it is part of the UK, this figure shows an estimate of Scotland’s fiscal position at the current time.

The report is used by different sides of the debate to bolster their case, and it has featured regularly in reports by both the Scottish and UK governments attempting to promote their differing positions. GERS shows Scotland’s notional deficit, and so is often used as a sort of starting position for Scotland’s financial position should it become independent of the UK. Respected analysis group The Fraser of Allander Institute says the report “presents a useful starting point for a discussion regarding the challenges and opportunities that Scotland would face”, but stresses that it is based on current constitution arrangements and previous statistics.

The report tells us little about Scotland’s long term financial prospects after independence as it does not model the societal, economic and structural changes that an independent Scotland would cause. GERS gives us a snapshot of Scotland’s current financial position, and should not be used to project into the future.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Brexit, nationalism and disintegration in the European Union and the United Kingdom

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 19:20:00 +0000

Brexit, nationalism and disintegration in the European Union and the United Kingdom

Primary Author or Creator:

Ben Wellings

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 20:20

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or Publisher

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14782804.2020.1753664

Type of Resource:

Academic Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

13pp

Fast Facts

The Brexit referendum opened up conflict between executive, parliamentary, national and popular sovereignties in the differing nations of the United Kingdom and had a noticeable effect on British disintegration.

More details

ABSTRACT

Brexit calls us to account for nationalist politics as an independent variable in the historic construction and disintegration of the European Union. By examining the nationalist politics animating the campaigns to leave the European Union throughout the United Kingdom and the politics of keeping the UK united as the ‘games’ of the Brexit negotiations played out, this article argues for the centrality of nationalism in any further understandings of the inter-related process and politics of Brexit and European disintegration.

Moreover, the Brexit referendum opened up contestation between executive, parliamentary, national and popular sovereignties in the differing nations of the United Kingdom and had a noticeable effect on British, as well as European, disintegration. Such inter-related drivers of disintegration must alert scholars to treat member-states as internally variegated and driven by imperatives to maintain state sovereignty in the face of challenges from sub-state, EU and global levels. European integration generates nationalism and creates polity contestation within the member-state as well as against the EU.

Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 29:3, 322-334. Paywall

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish nationalism

English nationalism

Language English

The economics of secession: a review of legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 19:11:41 +0000

The economics of secession: a review of legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects

Primary Author or Creator:

Thierry Madiès

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 20:11

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Grégoire Rota-Grasiozi, Jean-Pierre Tranchant, Cyril Trépier

Publisher:

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Alternative Published Date

2018

Category:

https://sjes.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41937-017-0015-6

Type of Resource:

Academic Paper

Fast Facts

Economic theory shows that the decision for a region to remain in a country (or a union) or to secede results from a trade-off between the benefits of being part of a large country, and the costs associated with more heterogeneity. Literature confirms the importance of these trade-offs and shows that decentralization may be effective to accommodate secessionist conflicts only if certain conditions are fulfilled.

More details

The economic theory of secession considers that both the size and the borders of nations result from the interplay of centripetal and centrifugal forces. The former are mainly due to the benefits associated to a large population size, while the latter are mainly related to the fact that large countries are likely to be more heterogeneous In this respect, both the optimal size of a country and the optimal number of countries across the world can be defined as a trade-off between benefits of size and the costs of heterogeneity. Optimal size must be understood as the size that maximizes the average welfare of individuals. Of course, nothing ensures that existing political institutions lead to this optimal size. Besides, whether countries are ruled by democratically elected politicians or by rent-maximizing dictators (Leviathans) matters to explain how borders are set or redrawn. Put differently, autocratic and democratic regimes are likely to lead to different outcomes regarding the countries’ sizes as the objective of the rulers is not the same in each.

...

Secession can be seen as an extreme case of decentralization, when all the prerogatives of the State (tax and spending) are transferred to the local political unit. The literature on fiscal federalism has largely debated the (in) efficiency of decentralization. All the previous mechanisms determining the occurrence of secession are also at play when it comes to define the “optimal” architecture of the state. On the spending side, some public goods may be locally delivered to better match populations’ preferences while others should remain supplied centrally to avoid duplication costs or the loss of scale economies. On the revenue side, granting subnational governments with more autonomy is expected to improve the accountability of local officials, but it would also induce a risk of harmful tax competition named “race to the bottom”.

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics volume 154, Article number: 19 (2018)

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Keywords

secession

Language English

5 reasons Scotland would thrive as an independent nation (updated)

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 18:52:02 +0000

5 reasons Scotland would thrive as an independent nation (updated)

Primary Author or Creator:

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 19:52

Publisher:

Believe in Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2019

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/5-reasons-why-an-independent-scotland-will-…

Type of Resource:

Web site

Fast Facts

Scotland is economically viable as it has natural resources, a skilled population, strong trading relations, excellent industrial sectors and products, and a well developed financial sector.

More details

1) Prosperity Requires: Natural Resources. Scotland is a Resource-Rich Country. It has enviable levels of tidal, wind and wave energy, and has become a world leader in the development and deployment of renewable technologies.

2) Prosperity Requires: A Skilled Population. One of Scotland’s most valuable resources is its people. With successful universities (4 in the world’s top 200) and colleges, Scotland has a capable and educated population with boundless potential. Scotland has the most educated people in Europe

3) Prosperity Requires: Access to Trading Markets. Scotland is well placed for trade. It has a strong trading relationship with countries across the world, especially the United States, with an estimated £5.5 billion of exports from Scotland in 2017.

4) Prosperity Requires: Excellent Sectoral Clusters and Products. In the 21st century, Scotland will compete on quality within the global economy. Countries such as China and India and other comparatively low wage economies will produce the cheapest goods. Therefore, Scotland must focus on output that cannot be reproduced.

5) Prosperity Requires: Extensive Financial Service Systems. Scotland has many institutions that can handle large scale financial projects, expansions and investments. Outside of London and the South East of England, Scotland is recognised internationally as the most important financial centre in the UK.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The SNP must rethink its economic model for an independent Scotland

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 14:16:16 +0000

The SNP must rethink its economic model for an independent Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Laurie Macfarlane

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 15:16

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Open Democracy

Publisher:

Open Democracy

Date Published:

27/10/20

Category:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/snp-must-rethink-its-economic-model…

Type of Resource:

Assessment report

Fast Facts

Scotland can become a successful independent nation. But that plan needs to come from the 2020s. And it needs to come from a broad cross section of civil society, not just business groups. Far from being an asset to the independence cause, the Growth Commission is its biggest liability. It’s time, as we say, ‘tae think again’.

More details

The narrow focus on fiscal discipline is not the only part of the Growth Commission’s report that feels like a discredited International Monetary Fund (IMF) document from the 1990s. Throughout the report there is a slavish adherence to a kind of economic orthodoxy that even institutions like the OECD and IMF have long since moved on from.

Rather than setting out a bold vision for Scotland’s economy by drawing on the latest economic thinking, the Commission attempts to identify “general themes that are observed consistently across high performing small advanced economies”. These themes are then used to identify an uninspiring list of key features that should underpin Scotland’s “next generation growth model”, such as being “innovation-focused”, “competitive”, “export-orientated” and having “flexible labour markets”.

By failing to interrogate how different economic models might contribute to different social, economic and environmental outcomes, the Commission’s recommended “growth model” ends up being little more than a list of lowest common denominators. How Scotland’s economy will be transformed after independence, and in whose interests, is left unanswered. Similarly, while challenges such as climate change and inequality are highlighted as problems that need to be addressed, there is scant detail on how the levers of independence should be deployed to tackle them.

Had the Commission bothered to tap into the wealth of talent and creative thinking across Scottish civil society, things might have been different. Rather than declaring that “an independent Scotland should be able to reap the long term benefits of oil revenues for many years to come”, they might have heard how a just transition away from fossil fuels is a better way to secure jobs and sustainable prosperity. Rather than ignoring the importance of care work to the functioning of modern economies, they might have heard how placing free, universal care at the heart of Scotland’s economic model would be both popular and good for the economy. Rather than fetishising GDP growth, they might have heard how prioritising alternative indicators of prosperity would be far more appropriate in the context of the challenges of the 21st century.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

How would an independent Scotland pay for it?

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 14:02:31 +0000

How would an independent Scotland pay for it?

Primary Author or Creator:

Cameron Archibald

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 15:02

Publisher:

Bella Caledonia

Date Published:

08/02/20

Category:

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2020/02/08/how-would-an-independent-scotland-pay-…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

It’s that time of year again when unionists start spreading lies about how an independent Scotland is subsidised by taxpayers money from the rest of the United Kingdom.

More details

The independence movement needs to change its language entirely. Our language needs to move away from the narrative that unionists want to control. Change the script from “how do we pay for it?” to “how will we organise it?”

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Public Debt

Public revenue

Language English

Can Scotland afford to go it alone?

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 10:54:59 +0000

Can Scotland afford to go it alone?

Primary Author or Creator:

Ruth Strachan

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 11:54

Publisher:

Investment Monitor

Date Published:

06/05/21

Category:

https://investmentmonitor.ai/analysis/who-would-pay-the-bills-in-an-independent…

Type of Resource:

Article

Fast Facts

With every passing election, Scotland seems to move closer to independence. Investment Monitor explores the obstacles the country would face should it leave the UK.

More details

Any debate on whether or not Scotland should be an independent country will centre around the country’s economy and its ability to pay the bills. So, what can be determined about Scotland’s finances and the future outlook of its economy independent from the rest of the UK?

Scotland’s income per capita is set to decline by at least 2% from the ramifications of Brexit alone. That is before any calculations regarding a potential independence are taken into account. It should be added that the timescale for this impact to be felt is vague; the report states “it is important to note that our model estimates long-run effects, which will likely take a generation to emerge”.

Richard Murphy, a political economist, chartered accountant and professor at City, University of London, does not believe that the GERS figures are all they seem. “I have had a long history of attacking the GERS statement,” he says. “Everything from its name onwards strikes me as a unionist statement. Is it really a coincidence that is happens to be named after a football club in Glasgow. There does appear to be widespread mistrust of the GERS figures in Scotland. A poll conducted by Survation for the think tank These Islands found that 57% of pro-independence voters believed the annual GERS figures were “made up by Westminster to hide Scotland’s true wealth”.

Although exports from Scotland to Europe are increasing, Lloyd cautions Scotland to be realistic as to why. “An independent Scotland would, of course, put an effort into making more of that connection, and it has increased in the past five to ten years, but then, exports have increased to the rest of the UK too,” he says. “The European ones have increased relatively more – as they would because it is a bigger market – but they haven’t increased so much as to make it obvious that it will compensate Scotland in the short or even medium term.”

Murphy argues that there could be ways around this that would allow for Scotland to enter the single market regardless. “If Scotland went for full alignment with the EU on issues so that food and other products were immediately aligned, there would be no border,” he says. “It could effectively apply to be in the single market very quickly, even if it was not in the EU. That would mean lots of border controls could be dropped from the way that they are now.”

“There is no way that any country can be independent without control of its own currency. It is essential that the country must be able to price itself into work. Scotland may need to have a lower value for its currency than the apparent equivalent Sterling rate. That is because it needs to competitively price people into jobs in Scotland. That would be the consequence of having an apparently lower exchange rate.” Murphy believes that if Scotland were to continue using sterling, or indeed any other currency, it would leave the country’s economy vulnerable to the power of the money markets.

More specifically, Murphy cites wind and tidal power as two promising areas for Scotland’s renewable energy sector. Despite this, Murphy agrees with Lloyd that more focused business reforms are needed from the SNP when it comes to energy. In an independent Scotland, robust and focused policies on bolstering the energy sectors could be the answer to truly unlocking Scotland’s potential as an independent energy-based economy, he believes. Outside renewable energy, there are a diverse range of sectors in Scotland that have seen promising growth in the past decade, such as life sciences, advanced manufacturing, construction, financial services and creative industries such as video games. All of these sectors have the advantage of doing business in a domestic market that is 66 million people strong, and stands as the sixth-largest economy in the world. Independence would cut this domestic market to 5.5 million and the economy would dramatically shrink.

Murphy adds: “The reality is, Scotland has competitive advantages that right now the UK is missing, and England is missing. The lack of confidence that there is in England, in government, in the state and everything else compared with the belief that people have in Scotland in their ability to actually deliver something different, is inestimable in value.”

It is this emotional side to the economic argument that has power to harness potentially undecided voters on the topic of independence, whether Scotland can afford it or not. At the time of writing the outcome of the May election is unknown, but the SNP is expected to hold a majority at Holyrood once the votes are counted. The party must then look to answer, as definitively as possible, what the economic plan for an independent Scotland would be.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

A Guide to the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) Report

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 10:39:20 +0000

A Guide to the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) Report

Primary Author or Creator:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 11:39

Additional Author(s) / Creators

University of Strathclyde

Publisher:

Fraser of Allander Institute

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://fraserofallander.org/gers-guide/

Type of Resource:

Academic Paper

Fast Facts

GERS does not present a balanced view of the Scottish economy. The possible financial costs and risks, or savings and opportunities, of implementing a new constitutional framework are, naturally, not considered in GERS. Similarly, it does not report on the effects of faster or slower economic growth in an independent Scotland.

More details

What is GERS?

GERS is an annual estimate of the Scottish fiscal position. It provides a summary of how much revenue is raised in Scotland, how much the country pays for the public services consumed, and to what extent the revenues raised cover the costs of these public services. It takes the current constitutional arrangement as given.

GERS captures the entire public sector in Scotland and provides both analysis of aggregate expenditure and revenue as well as breakdowns according to the individual expenditure and revenue components.

All the data presented in GERS are nominal figures, with no adjustment for inflation.

How is GERS calculated?

GERS is produced by statisticians in the Scottish Government. The publication is an accredited National Statistics publication, meaning that the statistics have been independently assessed as being based on appropriate methods and produced without political interference.

Is GERS based on real data?

The data that feeds into the spending side of GERS are predominantly real numbers and not estimates. The total spending is made up of Scottish and local government services and spending by the UK Government for the benefit of the people of Scotland. Scottish Government (and local government spending in Scotland) consists of spending on education, health, and public order and safety, among other things. UK Government spending for Scotland can be split into identifiable and non-identifiable expenditure.

Identifiable expenditure is spending specifically for the benefit of the residents of Scotland, such as social security. If we consider recent events, the UK’s fiscal response to coronavirus is an example of UK Government spending for the benefit of the residents of Scotland. For instance, the UK Government increased spending to finance the Job Retention Scheme which allowed employers to claim for up to 80% of a furloughed employees wage. The spending on the scheme that was allocated to applications made by Scottish employers is directly for the benefit of the residents of Scotland and will therefore appear in GERS, but not until next year. As the fiscal year runs from April to March the following year, spending on the coronavirus response will figure in the GERS report for 2020-21, published in August 2021.

Non-identifiable expenditure consists of spending on matters such as defence and debt interest, with data only collected on a UK-level. Because such expenditure is spent for the benefit of everyone in the UK, GERS estimates a proportion apportioned to Scotland’s spending. This is one part of the GERS numbers that attracts controversy. For example, Scotland is allocated a population share of UK defence expenditure, irrespective of where the spending takes place.

For revenues, more directly collected data is available following increased devolution in recent years. Taxes with available revenue data in Scotland include council tax, Non-Domestic (or business) Rates, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT), and Landfill Tax. In addition to this, the Scottish Government gained power to set the rates and bands for income tax for Scottish residents in 2017-18. In this way, income tax should be thought of as partially devolved tax. The UK Government remains responsible for the tax base and the personal allowance, and HMRC remains responsible for the collection of income tax in Scotland. However, the extension of Scottish income tax powers has made it possible to directly identify Scottish income tax receipts. This mean that the income tax revenue figured in GERS since 2017-18 is based on actual receipts, whereas before it was estimated using a sample of income taxpayers.

For other revenues where revenue data is not available from tax receipts for Scotland, estimation of these receipts is required.

For revenues that are only collected on a UK-wide level – such as by the HMRC – apportionment methodologies are applied to estimate GERS data – the details of which are set out in painstaking detail in the accompanying methodology documents. For instance, the revenue generated from fuel duties are appointed to Scotland by estimating Scotland’s share of UK fuel consumption. This estimation is based on UK road traffic fuel consumption broken down by region, based on weighted traffic flows on a sample of roads across the UK. GERS applies the estimate to the figure for total fuel duty revenue to apportion Scotland’s share. The GERS methodologies papers provide a more in-depth outline of the methodologies used to estimate revenue and spending data.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Where does Scotland’s wealth go?

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 10:16:51 +0000

Where does Scotland’s wealth go?

Primary Author or Creator:

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 11:16

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Business for Scotland

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2013

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/where-does-scotlands-wealth-go/

Type of Resource:

Web site

Fast Facts

When you compare the map of where the wealth ends up with a map of where the UK’s wealth is generated, the union drains wealth from Scotland.

More details

The more northern areas of the UK have suffered years of de-industrialisation, high unemployment and lower investment that followed the emergence of London-centric finance and service-led economic policy under consecutive Conservative and New Labour governments.

Put simply, when the UK runs a surplus Scotland contributes more to the surplus, and when the UK runs a deficit Scotland has to pay more of the debt back than it is responsible for. It’s a “lose/lose” situation for Scottish tax payers and especially for those in need of support from the state.

How does a political and economic system that drains billions in revenues from Scotland and leaves the poor unable to heat their homes make us better together? The current Westminster system leaves many Scots children in poverty and growing up in a culture of hopelessness. It leaves our nation’s families comparatively poorer despite the fact that we generate more tax revenue per head that the rest of the UK.

How can anyone justly claim that is worth fighting for? But then maybe that is why the No camp does not actually campaign on the economic and social record of the Westminster system but rather campaign against independence and, by extension, against the hopes and aspirations of those of us that see independence not as an end in itself but a means to an end whereby we build a stronger, safer, richer, fairer and all round better Scotland.

We can build a Scotland which gets the best of both worlds from remaining in partnership with our friends across the British Isles in areas where we share mutual interests, but most importantly being able to shape our own economic future and maximise our own resources to benefit more Scots today and in generations to come through self-government.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

wealth distribution

Health

Language English

Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland 2020-21

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 10:03:17 +0000

Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland 2020-21

Primary Author or Creator:

Scottish Government

Stephen Richard Wed, 29/09/2021 - 11:03

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or Publisher

Publisher:

Scottish Government

Date Published:

18/08/21

Category:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2020-…

Type of Resource:

government report

Fast Facts

Estimated total 2020/1 expenditure for the benefit of Scotland was £99.2 billion. Spending increased by 21.0%, reflecting the costs of the health and wider economic interventions in response pandemic. This is equivalent to 9.1% of total UK public sector expenditure, or £18,144 per person, which is £1,828 per person greater than the UK average.

More details

Net Fiscal Balance 2020-21

This is the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment. The net fiscal balance:

Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of 22.4% of GDP (£36.3 billion).
Excluding North Sea revenue, was a deficit of 23.8% of GDP (£36.9 billion).
For the UK, was a deficit of 14.2% of GDP.

Total Public Sector Revenue 2020-21

Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea, Scottish public sector revenue was estimated as £62.8 billion (7.9% of UK revenue). Of this, £0.5 billion was North Sea revenue. Scottish non-North Sea revenue was £62.3 billion (7.8% of UK revenue).
Non-North Sea revenue fell from £65.3 billion in 2019-20, a fall of 4.6% as the pandemic decreased revenue, particularly non-domestic rates, VAT, and fuel duties.
Scotland’s illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue was £0.5 billion in 2020-21, down from £0.8 billion in 2019-20, as the fall in the oil price during the pandemic reduced revenue.
Including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, Scotland’s public sector revenue is equivalent to £11,496 per person, £382 less than the UK average. Excluding North Sea revenue, it is £11,395 per person, £477 less than the UK average.

Total Public Sector Expenditure 2020-21

Total expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the Scottish Government, UK Government, and all other parts of the public sector was £99.2 billion. Spending increased by 21.0%, reflecting the costs of the health and wider economic interventions in response pandemic. This is equivalent to 9.1% of total UK public sector expenditure, or £18,144 per person, which is £1,828 per person greater than the UK average.

The figures are produced in accordance with professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Public expenditure

Expenditure per person

Fiscal balance

Public revenue

Language English

HS2 will not cost Scotland £17 billion

Stephen Richard — Tue, 28 Sep 2021 19:28:16 +0000

HS2 will not cost Scotland £17 billion

Primary Author or Creator:

Full Fact

Stephen Richard Tue, 28/09/2021 - 20:28

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or Publisher

Date Published:

01/02/21

Category:

https://fullfact.org/online/hs2-scotland/

Public Finance

Type of Resource:

Fact check

Fast Facts

There is no evidence for the claim that HS2 will cost Scotland. In effect, all money spent by Scotland on HS2 is returned through the Barnett formula.

More details

When the UK government increases spending which doesn't affect a devolved nation, that devolved nation receives money, equivalent to its population share, back to spend itself. This is the case with HS2 and Scotland which means that, in effect, all money spent on HS2 which is raised by Scottish taxes will be returned via something called the Barnett formula.

Also, while HS2’s high-speed lines will not reach Scotland, HS2 will cut the travel time to and from Scotland in some cases, because HS2 trains going between Scotland and England are expected to run on the high-speed lines in England before or after moving onto the regular network.

HS2 is being paid for by the UK Department for Transport. This is funded by public money including taxes gathered across the UK.

We can’t really say the extent to which taxes collected in Scotland are contributing towards HS2 because bits of government revenue aren’t generally earmarked for specific projects.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

HS2

Barnett formula

Language English

The political economy of and practical policies for inclusive growth—a case study of Scotland

Stephen Richard — Sun, 26 Sep 2021 16:49:47 +0000

The political economy of and practical policies for inclusive growth—a case study of Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Donald Houston

Stephen Richard Sun, 26/09/2021 - 17:49

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Georgiana Varna, Iain Docherty

Date Published:

22/12/20

Category:

https://academic.oup.com/cjres/article-abstract/14/1/197/6043953

Type of Resource:

Academic Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

19pp

Fast Facts

This indetifies four key policy areas for ‘inclusive growth’: skills, transport and housing for young people; city-regional governance; childcare; and place-making.

More details

The concept of ‘inclusive growth’ (IG) is discussed in a political economy framework. The article reports comparative analysis of economic and planning policy documents from Scotland, England and the UK and findings from expert workshops held in Scotland, which identify four key policy areas for ‘inclusive growth’: skills, transport and housing for young people; city-regional governance; childcare; and place-making. These policies share with the ‘Foundational Economy’ an emphasis on everyday infrastructure and services, but add an emphasis on inter-generational justice and stress the importance of community empowerment as much as re-municipalisation. Factors enabling IG policy development include: the necessary political powers; a unifying political discourse and civic institutions; and inclusive governance and participatory democracy.

Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Volume 14, Issue 1, March 2021, Pages 197–215

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

What Does Good Green Infrastructure Planning Policy Look Like? Developing and Testing a Policy Assessment Tool Within Central Scotland UK

Stephen Richard — Sun, 26 Sep 2021 16:39:20 +0000

What Does Good Green Infrastructure Planning Policy Look Like? Developing and Testing a Policy Assessment Tool Within Central Scotland UK

Primary Author or Creator:

Max Hislop

Stephen Richard Sun, 26/09/2021 - 17:39

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Alister J. Scott, Alastair Corbett

Date Published:

01/11/19

Category:

https://doi.org/10.1080/14649357.2019.1678667

Type of Resource:

Academic Paper

Fast Facts

The policies champion the different functions performed by Green Infrastructure and stress the need for early and ongoing involvement throughout any development process with funding for long-term stewardship post-development.

More details

This paper develops and tests a new self-assessment policy tool that illuminates the quality of planning policy for green infrastructure (GI). Working with 19 local planning authorities within the UK Central Scotland Green Network area (CSGN), the multi-functional coverage and strength of GI policies in statutory development plans were assessed. The tool was built from fusing two existing but unrelated initiatives addressing GI standards; Building with Nature and Integrating Green Infrastructure (IGI). The results reveal surprising variation across the functional coverage of GI-related policy and strength of associated policy wording, suggesting a significant vulnerability for how GI is mainstreamed in decision-making processes. To address this knowledge exchange deficit, the best performing policies were captured and adapted to inform a suite of model policies with global application. Significantly, the policies champion the different functions performed by GI and stress the need for early and ongoing involvement throughout any development process with funding for long-term stewardship post-development. The results serve as a catalyst for improved dialogue and social learning across planning, and wider built/natural environment teams and professions to plug identified policy gaps. In particular, there is recognition of the need for planning policy responses to move outside their usual environmental remit and engage with other policy sectors using more holistic policy hooks such as placemaking, placekeeping and the climate emergency. We argue that this tool has universal applicability in many planning systems for improving the policy response and imperative for GI, thereby increasing the potential for better spatial planning delivery.

Planning Theory & Practice Volume 20, 2019 - Issue 5

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Green Economy

Government policy

Green infrastructure

Language English

The Transformation of Scotland; the Economy since 1700

Stephen Richard — Sun, 26 Sep 2021 16:30:02 +0000

The Transformation of Scotland; the Economy since 1700

Primary Author or Creator:

T M Devine

Stephen Richard Sun, 26/09/2021 - 17:30

Additional Author(s) / Creators

C H Lee, G C Peden

Publisher:

Edinburgh University Press

Alternative Published Date

2011

Category:

https://uk.bookshop.org/books/the-transformation-of-scotland-the-economy-since-…

Type of Resource:

Book

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

269pp

Fast Facts

There are issues, such as the distribution of income, which merit particular attention in Scotland's case. There are also contradictions in explanations of Scotland's economic performance that have to be addressed.

More details

This is the first comprehensive history of the Scottish economy over the last three centuries to appear in a generation. Written by leading scholars in the field, it presents 'state of the art' research in an accessible style to all those interested in understanding the historical context of modern Scotland. Fresh interpretations are revealed on such key and controversial issues as the impact of the Union of 1707, the Clearances, the rise and fall of Scottish heavy industry and the recent transformation of the modern economy. The distinctive features of the Scottish economic system are stressed but these are also analysed within a British and international context. The focus of the volume is both broad and detailed with full treatment of agriculture, finance, industry and the service sector as well as the impact of momentous economic changes on the lives of the people and the massive new role in the twentieth century of the state in economic affairs.At a time of intense debate on the present and future condition of Scotland under a devolved parliament and executive, this book provides the essential background and the long-run perspectives on the challenges and opportunities facing the nation.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic History of Scotland

Language English

How Scotland suffers most from Brexit

Stephen Richard — Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:45:16 +0000

How Scotland suffers most from Brexit

Primary Author or Creator:

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Thu, 23/09/2021 - 09:45

Publisher:

The National

Date Published:

17/03/21

Category:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19165184.open-minds-independence-10-scotland-…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

Brexit is just the latest and most obvious example of the democratic deficit which makes the Union so damaging to Scotland and renders it impossible for the people of Scotland to have any control over our country’s future.

More details

The Scottish parliament voted overwhelmingly – by 92 votes to 30 – to reject the terrible trade deal at the end of December 2020. All parties except the Scottish Tories voted against the EU (Future Relationship) Bill on the basis it would “cause severe damage to Scotland’s environmental, economic and social interests”, and there had been too little time to give it adequate scrutiny.

In a functioning democracy that would have meant the deal had to be renegotiated. In a true Union of equals, Brexit would have been stopped or at the very least changed dramatically to reflect Scotland’s wishes. Instead, it went ahead exactly as the Tory Government wanted.

Open Minds on Independence #10

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

The truth about the annual GERS figures.

Stephen Richard — Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:16:04 +0000

The truth about the annual GERS figures.

Primary Author or Creator:

The National

Stephen Richard Thu, 23/09/2021 - 09:16

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Believe in Scotland

Date Published:

02/03/21

Category:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19130594.open-minds-6-truth-gers---scotlands-…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

There is no set of official accounts that tells us how an independent Scotland’s economy would fare, nor what its finances would look like.

More details

Any attempt to analyse Scotland’s finances is instantly hampered by the fact that Scotland is not an independent nation and therefore does not have the same financial data, trade statistics, costs and revenue information available to work with that a normal independent country would have. The first thing to remember is that Scotland’s overall budget is set by Westminster. Seventy per cent of its revenues are controlled by Westminster and 40% of its spending. If Westminster wants Scotland counts to show a false deficit than Scotland accounts will show a false deficit.

Of the 26 income figures quoted in GERS, 25 are estimated and there are no fully reliable Scottish-specific income tax, corporation tax, VAT or national insurance figures. So if GERS does not accurately indicate what Scotland’s true financial position is as part of the UK and it most definitely does not tell us what our finances would look like after independence had been achieved. The fact that GERS is a set of accounts for Scotland as a region of the UK and not as a separate nation impacts on how the GERS figures are compiled

Open Minds on Independence #6

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Was Britain's economy already broken or will Brexit break it?

Stephen Richard — Tue, 21 Sep 2021 18:26:32 +0000

Was Britain's economy already broken or will Brexit break it?

Primary Author or Creator:

The National

Stephen Richard Tue, 21/09/2021 - 19:26

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Believe in Scotland

Date Published:

20/02/21

Category:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19122971.open-minds-independence-5-britains-e…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

The economic situation has been made even worse by the unfolding disaster that is Brexit. Scotland's view has been ignored by the Westminster government.

More details

The economic situation has been made even worse by the unfolding disaster that is Brexit. Scotland voted to remain in the EU, because it was manifestly in our best interests to do so. But our votes were ignored, along with our opinions, our economic drivers and our arguments for a softer Brexit which would have allowed us to stay in the single market.

Open Minds on Independence #5

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

How Scotland’s been tricked into thinking it’s too poor.

Stephen Richard — Sat, 18 Sep 2021 07:18:14 +0000

How Scotland’s been tricked into thinking it’s too poor.

Primary Author or Creator:

The National

Stephen Richard Sat, 18/09/2021 - 08:18

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Believe in Scotland

Date Published:

18/02/21

Category:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19095343.open-minds-independence-2-scotlands-…

Type of Resource:

News Media

Fast Facts

A poll for Prospect Scotland found that 75% of Scottish voters would vote for independence if they felt that the economic plan for an independent Scotland meant we would be better off.

More details

It’s is a simple economic fact that Scotland has an embarrassment of economic advantages over the rest of the UK and indeed over almost all the other smaller independent northern European nations that an independent Scotland would be benchmarked against. Just look at Scotland’s natural wealth. The UK Government’s own figures show that with 8.4% of the UK population Scotland possesses between 20% and 34% of the UK’s natural wealth dependent on the price of oil.

Looking to the future we possess 26% of the UK’s renewable energy generation – 90% if it’s hydropower capacity – and a mind-boggling 10% of Europe’s wave power potential, 25% of Europe’s offshore wind resources and 25% of its tidal-energy resources. Before the Westminster Government harmed our economy with its next-to-no-deal Brexit, Scotland also exported £17,456 of goods per head, more than twice the UK’s goods exports of only £8648 per head.

Of course, that isn’t all Scotland contributes to the UK. We produce double our population share of the UK’s food – about 16.1% – including about 70% of the UK’s fish landings which are now threatened by the mess Westminster has made of Brexit. So why are some Scots voters still worried about our economy? To be frank, they are being lied to by Westminster politicians. Those politicians need to keep Scotland’s economy within the UK as, without our energy resources, oil and gas (regardless of the oil price) and massive trade surpluses effectively subsidising and supporting the rest of the UK, its economy would struggle.

Pretty much the only argument for the Union is contained in the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) annual report, which those politicians suggests proves that Scotland has a higher budget deficit than in England.

Open Minds on Independence #2:

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Contercast

Stephen Richard — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 11:37:26 +0000

Contercast

Primary Author or Creator:

David Jamieson

Stephen Richard Thu, 16/09/2021 - 12:37

Publisher:

Conter

Alternative Published Date

2017 -

Category:

https://www.conter.co.uk/contercast

Type of Resource:

Podcast

Fast Facts

Conter is a site of Scottish anti-capitalist thought. It aims to develop a radical, anti-capitalist class politics in Scotland fit to intervene into the crisis of the British state, the global order and Scottish society.

More details

It seeks to be an internationalist organ, but one rooted in a distinct national context. To explore the historical and contemporary dynamics of Scottish society as produced by class conflict understood as a constant, irrepressible process expressed in diverse forms. We aim to promote the intellectual life of Scottish socialism insofar as this enhances political action.

Conter will run a regular blog, with shorter pieces of critical commentary on events in Scottish life and global affairs. It will also produce special editions with longer theoretical pieces and reviews, examining economics, politics, social movements and ideological trends.

The hope is to produce a body of work that is both highly critical and entirely partisan in the interests of the working class and social progress.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scotland

Scotland Politics and government

Anti-capitalist

Class politics

Scottish politics

Language English

Thinking Outwith the Box, GERS 2020-21 and the SNP conference Agenda

Stephen Richard — Tue, 14 Sep 2021 11:35:41 +0000

Thinking Outwith the Box, GERS 2020-21 and the SNP conference Agenda

Primary Author or Creator:

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Tue, 14/09/2021 - 12:35

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Chris Hanlon, Agnes MacAuley

Publisher:

Common Weal

Date Published:

18/08/21

Category:

Scottish government

https://commonweal.scot/podcast/the-common-weal-policy-podcast-episode-97/

Type of Resource:

Podcast

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

41:43 minutes

Fast Facts

What the latest GERS figures mean (and don’t mean) for Scotland, independence and the post-pandemic recovery.

More details

This week, Craig talks to SNP Policy Development Convenor Chris Hanlon and Agnes MacAuley from SNP Greenock & Inverclyde about the latest GERS figures and what they mean (and don’t mean) for Scotland, independence and the post-pandemic recovery. They then discuss up and coming motions to the SNP conference that have been influenced by or based on Common Weal policies including one for a National Transport Company designed to help decarbonise our cars and other vehicles. Finally, they discuss the role of non-party think tanks in Scottish politics and what they can do that party affiliated policy groups cannot.

Common Weal podcast #97,

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

From ‘I’ to ‘We’: Changing the narrative in Scotland’s relationship with consumption

Stephen Richard — Tue, 14 Sep 2021 08:25:51 +0000

From ‘I’ to ‘We’: Changing the narrative in Scotland’s relationship with consumption

Primary Author or Creator:

Iain Black

Stephen Richard Tue, 14/09/2021 - 09:25

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Deirdre Shaw, Katherine Trebeck

Publisher:

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

December 2015

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/From-I-to-We.pdf

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

Studies have shown that having a positive relationship with our families, friends and community, as well as having good health, are the things that matter most to us. The job of government is to re-establish the link between that narrative and our idea of what prosperity is.

More details

The narrative of ‘I’ has become increasingly dominant as part of wider economic changes in Britain, where there has been a decline in productive exports and a rise in wealth extraction through mass consumption.

Central to the narrative of ‘I’ has been the role of marketing as a manipulator, where social interactions are to a much greater extent imbued with spending, and status and group membership are defined by what, where, how and with whom we consume. It also helps create and support cycles of consumption by supporting a culture of continual change through product differentiation, regardless of social need or environmental sustainability.

A shift from the narrative of ‘I’ to ‘We’ is necessary to establish the precedence of collective experience and responsibility, of shared experience and society, of equality and fairness and sustainability.

The narrative of ‘We’ already exists in society – studies have shown that having a positive relationship with our families, friends and community, as well as having good health, are the things that matter most to us. The job of government is to re-establish the link between that narrative and our idea of what prosperity is.

― Make participation more desirable and possible by for example making entry to council sports facilities free, including entry to local authority swimming pools, open up park facilities, encourage sharing equipment through creating ‘libraries’, exclude shared and community goods from VAT.

― Developing skills through more access to lifelong learning, including a ‘national skills database’ where experts put on workshops to teach people skills

- Fund participation through subsidising community participation rather than the car and pharmaceutical industry. Make community volunteering tax deductible.

― Reform the role of marketing so it is a facilitator rather than a manipulator. This will involve redefining how it is taught and understood and controlling how it is currently practiced by for example banning marketing and advertising to kids.

― Make the producer pay for the cost of commercial waste rather than local government and introduce a pollution price trading scheme so environmental harm is added on to cost.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Scottish independence referendum: why the economic issues are quite different to 2014

Stephen Richard — Mon, 13 Sep 2021 16:16:20 +0000

Scottish independence referendum: why the economic issues are quite different to 2014

Primary Author or Creator:

Graeme Roy

Stephen Richard Mon, 13/09/2021 - 17:16

Publisher:

The Conversation

Date Published:

28/01/21

Category:

https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-referendum-why-the-economic-i…

Type of Resource:

Review

Fast Facts

Scotland has a successful economy. It has challenges - inequalities, ageing population, and less dynamic businesses than competitors. The engaged population will demand facts and figures rather than political persuasion.

More details

Scotland has a successful economy, with strengths such as energy, financial services and tourism. It has a world-class university sector, is rich in natural resources, and can count on trusted institutions.

It has challenges as well, including longstanding inequalities, an ageing population and a business base that is often less dynamic than its competitors. Public spending is higher compared to the UK – by around 17% in the latest figures. This reflects greater needs in areas such as social security, and higher costs of delivering services, but also historical political choices on UK regional funding

One certainty is that voters are all too aware of how quickly promises made – by all sides – during a referendum can evaporate when the campaign ends. Scotland has an engaged electorate who will demand facts and evidence, just as much as political persuasion.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Referendum

Language English

Response to latest [2020/1] Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) estimates

Stephen Richard — Mon, 13 Sep 2021 08:29:12 +0000

Response to latest [2020/1] Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) estimates

Primary Author or Creator:

David Phillips

Stephen Richard Mon, 13/09/2021 - 09:29

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Institute for Fiscal Studies

Date Published:

18/08/21

Category:

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/15581

Type of Resource:

Assessment report

Fast Facts

The large debts shown by the 2020/1 GERS are temporary and not structural. They do not indicate that Scotland cannot afford to be inedpendent.

More details

Hasn’t the massive borrowing carried out by the UK government and other high-income country governments during the COVID-19 pandemic, and at very low borrowing costs to boot, shown that an independent Scotland need not be concerned about running a large budget deficit? It’s not clear that it does.

First, there is a difference between a temporary surge in borrowing like the UK’s – especially at a time when the household sector is massively boosting its saving – and the large structural deficit that an independent Scotland would start life with. And the UK government has announced a package of tax rises and cuts to previous spending plans which amount to 1.8% of GDP a year by 2025-26 in an attempt to bring the deficit down over time – although the spending totals will almost certainly be revised up in this autumn’s Spending Review.

Second, nearly all of the extra borrowing by the UK government since the pandemic began has effectively been financed by the Bank of England creating additional reserves on which interest is paid at Bank Rate – i.e. currently just 0.1%, as it expanded its programme of ‘quantitative easing’ to boost liquidity and support the economy during the pandemic. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have also carried out similar operations to support their economies. If an independent Scotland were to use the pound informally, as is current SNP policy for the short-term, such monetary financing would unlikely be available to it on the same terms. On the other hand, a separate Scottish currency, the SNP’s preferred option for the longer-term, could come under pressure if Scotland’s public finances were seen as unsustainable by the financial markets, pushing up the cost of any sterling-denominated debt obligations of the Scottish Government, households and businesses. Indeed, one of the six tests the SNP say will guide the decision of when to move to a separate Scottish currency is that the Scottish Government has a “sufficiently strong and credible fiscal position in relation to [its] budget deficit and overall debt level”. Action to reduce Scotland’s deficit is therefore a key part of plans for a new currency that further down the road would give Scotland greater fiscal flexibility.

None of this means that Scotland cannot afford to be independent, nor that there aren’t a range of opportunities for better policy to improve performance and better address Scottish needs and preferences. If such policies can be developed and implemented, this might in the longer-term allow more to be spent on public services and more to be kept in Scottish people’s pockets.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Beyond GERS: Scotland’s fiscal position post-independence

Stephen Richard — Sun, 12 Sep 2021 11:11:35 +0000

Beyond GERS: Scotland’s fiscal position post-independence

Primary Author or Creator:

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Sun, 12/09/2021 - 12:11

Publisher:

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

2017

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/policies/beyond-gers-scotlands-fiscal-position-post-ind…

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) is not a good guide to the position of Scotland post independence.

More details

GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) 2015/16 reported Scotland’s fiscal deficit to be in the region of £14 billion per year, portraying Scotland as the country experiencing some of the most challenging financial circumstances in Europe.

However, this study must be viewed firmly in the light of Scotland being a member nation of the United Kingdom and, as such, any attempt to use them to project the finances of an independent Scotland must be treated with caution and qualification.

The very act of independence will result in significant redistributions and reallocations of government resources which will likely result in economic benefits accruing to Scotland. Additionally, decisions on how to establish and govern new Scottish state institutions will also improve Scotland’s budget at the point of set-up, further strengthening the fiscal position vis-à-vis that presented in GERS and that of the rest of the United Kingdom.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish Debt

Government finance

Language English

Revealed: The Accounting Trick that Hides Scotland’s Wealth (2020)

Stephen Richard — Sun, 12 Sep 2021 06:39:18 +0000

Revealed: The Accounting Trick that Hides Scotland’s Wealth (2020)

Primary Author or Creator:

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Stephen Richard Sun, 12/09/2021 - 07:39

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/revealed-the-accounting-trick-that-hides-sc…

Type of Resource:

Assessment report

Fast Facts

The UK Government has diverted Scotland’s wealth to the UK Treasury to pay off its debts. Thus it creates 100% of Scotland’s supposed debts and 100% of its phoney deficit. This is the impact of Westminster’s debt loading alone, and upon that accounting trick, rests the entire economic case for the Union. Would an independent Scotland have to pay the rUK a population share of the UK’s historical debt? No – there is in fact a very strong case for Scotland to be compensated for having already paid more than it’s “fair share” of the UK’s debt

More details

For generations, the people of Scotland have been fed a negative narrative on Scotland’s economy. A depressing picture of Scotland has been drawn by Westminster politicians, portraying it as a subsidised state dependent on the UK for charitable handouts, with higher levels of debt and a dependency on the public sector. Scotland has been told that without the generosity of the UK to bail it out, it would be a bankrupt nation, unable to meet the very basic needs and wants of its people.

This narrative is fundamentally untrue. There is simply no evidence to support it whatsoever.

So manifestly untrue, in fact, that all the available economic data entirely contradicts the age-old, absurd and tired Westminster proposition that Scotland could not succeed as an independent self-governing country. The “too small, too poor and too stupid” argument has become so completely discredited that none of the major players in the 2014 No Campaign dared to suggest it. ...

There is an expenditure line in GERS called Public Sector Debt Interest (PSDI). It’s the fifth-largest expenditure of the Scottish Government and a larger spend than Scotland’s allocated share of the UK Armed forces expenditure. Historical analysis of GERS reports demonstrates that every year since records began, Scotland has been paying interest on a population share of the UK’s debts. In 2019-20, PSDI added £4.5bn to the cost of running Scotland.366

That’s not paying back the capital on any debt, it’s just the interest on the UK’s debt. Scotland has recently been granted very limited borrowing powers, but while the UK’s debt was being built up Scotland had no borrowing powers. In fact, Scotland’s economy was either in surplus, or had a lower deficit than the UK, so Scotland did not contribute to the creation of the debt.

How does a nation without the ability to borrow end up paying billions of interest on debt every year? It does so because the allocation of the debt is not related to the UK region or nation which generated the debt, nor where the money was spent or the economic benefit felt. The UK’s debt is allocated to Scotland’s accounts on a population percentage basis, even though Scotland did not generate that debt."

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Barnett formula

UK debt

Language English

The Barnett Formula Myth Destroyed – It does not subsidise Scotland

Stephen Richard — Sun, 12 Sep 2021 06:33:32 +0000

The Barnett Formula Myth Destroyed – It does not subsidise Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Gordon Macintyre-Kemp

Stephen Richard Sun, 12/09/2021 - 07:33

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Business for Scotland

Publisher:

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

2019

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/the-barnett-formula-myth-destroyed-it-does-…

Type of Resource:

Assessment report

Fast Facts

The Barnett Formula will withhold from Scotland, over the five years covered by the spending review, enough money to have hired approximately 7,955 additional NHS medical professionals. That is not a bonus – it’s a smoke and mirrors mechanism that aims to reduce the Scottish Government’s spending power in real terms.

More details

The Barnett Formula was first devised in 1978 as a temporary response to the potential devolution of powers to a Scottish parliament after the 1979 devolution referendum and thus Barnett would replace the annual budget negotiations. The referendum result saw 51.6% of voters in Scotland voting for devolution. However, fearing what would happen, a Labour MP for an English constituency successfully tabled an amendment to the referendum act that stipulated that more than 40% of the total Scottish electorate would have to vote “Yes” in the referendum for devolution to be enacted. Even though the result was 51.6% Yes, the turnout was only 64%, so as a percentage of the total electorate only 32.9% voted Yes, and so despite winning the referendum, devolution was denied to the people of Scotland at that point.

Fearing a collapse of influence in future budget negotiations, consecutive Scottish Secretaries of State argued to maintain the Barnett Formula, as they knew that, at least in the short term, it would maintain Scottish public sector spending at higher levels per head than in England. The Treasury, presumably understanding the mathematics of the formula knew that over time it would reduce real terms spending in Scotland to parity with English levels, was only too happy to agree.

The Barnett Formula has not succeeded though in reducing Scotland’s public spending. The reason it remains higher to this day is largely due to unforeseen devolution complications that undermined the Barnett Formula’s goal. That is why many Westminster politicians want to replace it, with a formula that would presumably be more effective at cutting Scotland’s budget.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Barnett formula

Language English

Economic Implications for the United Kingdom of Scottish Independence

Stephen Richard — Sat, 11 Sep 2021 20:18:28 +0000

Economic Implications for the United Kingdom of Scottish Independence

Primary Author or Creator:

House of Lords

Stephen Richard Sat, 11/09/2021 - 21:18

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Economic Affairs Committee

Alternative Published Date

2013

Category:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeconaf/152/15209.htm

Type of Resource:

Assessment report

Fast Facts

The House of Lords assessment of the economic implications of independence before the 2014 referendum.

More details

There can be no definitive answer to the question of whether an independent Scotland would be more prosperous, less prosperous or as prosperous as Scotland is now. Our report identifies clear threats to Scotland's prosperity under independence; while the upside is uncertain.

Continued use of sterling by an independent Scotland in monetary union with the rest of the UK is the stated preference of the Scottish Government. But it would raise complex problems of cross-border monetary policy, multiple financial regulators and taxpayer exposure and could only come about, if at all, on terms agreed by the UK Government. Arrangements should be clear before the referendum. But the proposal for the Scottish Government to exert some influence over the Bank of England, let alone the rest of the UK exchequer, is devoid of precedent and entirely fanciful.

Dismantling the current fiscal union would result in a loss of risk-sharing mechanisms between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK. This would be an adverse consequence for the citizens of both states, but particularly for people in Scotland given the relative size of the two countries.

An independent Scotland would need to have a double taxation agreement with the rest of the UK and to negotiate tax treaties and similar agreements with a range of countries.

here is not enough information about the defence policy of an independent Scotland to enable Scottish voters to make an informed judgment in next year's referendum. We recommend that the Scottish Government should make a sustained effort to clarify the issues before the vote, giving an indication of its expected defence budget, military establishment, scale of procurement and impact on Scotland's workforce skills base, as well as indicating the terms of Scotland's application to join NATO. This would help Scottish voters assess the employment and economic as well the security implications of an independent defence policy

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Finance

Language English

Towards an industrial policy for Scotland: A discussion of principles and approaches

Stephen Richard — Tue, 07 Sep 2021 07:33:07 +0000

Towards an industrial policy for Scotland: A discussion of principles and approaches

Primary Author or Creator:

Iain Cairns

Stephen Richard Tue, 07/09/2021 - 08:33

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Andrew Cumber,s Mike Danson, Iain Docherty, Pat Kane, Gordon Morgan, Robin McAlpine, Robert McMaster Willie Sullivan, Geoffrey Whittam

Alternative Published Date

March 2016

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Towards-an-industrial-policy…

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

A mutual, sectoral model of industrial development rejects both ‘top down planning’ and ‘free market’ approaches. The form an economy takes is inevitably the result of political decision-making. Democracy must therefore extend to the economic sphere.

More details

This report proposes a mutual, sectoral model of industrial development and rejects both ‘top down planning’ and ‘free market’ approaches.

Our approach is based on the recognition that the economy is not a force ‘external’ to society, governed by its own set of abstract rules or laws. The form an economy takes is inevitably the result of political decision-making.

Democracy must therefore extend to the economic sphere to ensure that the outcomes of these political decisions are aligned with the aspirations of the people.

― An industrial policy begins from the view that the economy is not in some way separate from wider society or its hopes and aspirations. The prevailing view that the economy must be protected, isolated and immunised from democracy must be challenged if we wish to create an economy that works for citizens.

― A sectoral approach is required to promote an ‘interconnected economy’, in which different sectors ‘grow up together’. A good motto for this kind of industrial policy could be
‘no sector left behind’.

― Sector associations (such as those in the Nordic countries) are institutions which enable all the main players in an industry sector to work collectively to come up with common solutions to develop their sector for the benefit of all.

― It is important to be aware that Scotland simply does not have access to the economic policy tools that it would require to pursue a substantially different economic strategy. Most macroeconomic, regulatory, employment, social security, tax, immigration and trade powers remain reserved to Westminster and these will continue to be directed towards the wrong economic approaches until independence or such time as those tools are otherwise delivered.

― However, there remains a substantial range of actions which can be taken in Scotland to help induce the right kind of economic transformation and these can be assembled into a ‘toolkit’ of powers which sector associations can draw on in developing their proposals.

― A Common Weal economy actively encourages democratic experimentation with the structure of enterprises and sectors, including open source and ‘peer production’ business methods. Such an approach would be greatly aided by a news media industry that more effectively supports the generation, availability and circulation of new economic ideas.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Industrial policy

Industry associations

Language English

Fighting for Tax Jobs, Fighting For Justice: A Workers’ Alternative

Stephen Richard — Mon, 06 Sep 2021 21:29:04 +0000

Fighting for Tax Jobs, Fighting For Justice: A Workers’ Alternative

Primary Author or Creator:

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Mon, 06/09/2021 - 22:29

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Ben Wray, Common Weal

Publisher:

Common Weal

Date Published:

30/06/18

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Fighting-for-Tax-Jobs.pdf

Type of Resource:

consultation response

Fast Facts

The economic impact of HMRC’s plans to close departments around Scotland and establish two regional offices in Glasgow and Edinburgh will cause the loss of over 2,300 jobs and a negative impact on GDP of £89 million.

More details

― The UK Government’s modelling for the impact of cuts on the broader economy is outdated. We use the IMF?s revised estimates for the fiscal multiplier, which take greater account of data after the Great Recession. Using these findings, we show that any ?efficiency savings? from cuts will eventually be wiped out by the resulting contraction in tax revenue.

― However, the reality could be far more damaging if HMRC cuts make the campaign against tax avoidance and evasion less efficient. If so, HMRC cuts will mean a reduction in tax revenue for all public services. They will also damage the drive to reduce the social inequality and injustice caused by failure to enforce the tax system

― Current HMRC plans foresee a leaner service that does more with less thanks to centralised digital technology systems. Our research suggests that the practicalities of this model have not been thought out, particularly in areas like customs and excise which will be inundated with new problems after Brexit.

― According to widespread reports, existing cuts have already had a “chaotic” and “shocking” impact on HMRC administration, suggesting that a more cautious estimate of administrative change is needed. The current plans are, by contrast, radically optimistic in assessing the impact of replacing human services with technology.

― International evidence suggests that Britain’s model is inefficient and will not work. Where digital technology has been a success, it has been married to increases in staff numbers, not decreases.

― These decisions have been made by the UK Government with little consultation with the Scottish Government over the likely impact. This raises constitutional questions about democratic accountability.

― The cuts will exacerbate uneven development, both across the UK and within Scotland. Edinburgh, which already gets a significant subsidy from jobs created by public sector administration, will get a further boost under the plans. By contrast, businesses and communities in poorer areas like West Lothian, Cumbernauld and East Kilbride will suffer from centralisation.

― The plans risk a breakdown in trust and authority between central Government and Scotland’s communities.

― The plans make heroic assumptions about Scotland’s vast geography. They underestimate commuting times (and stresses on both individual and existing transport systems) in Greater Glasgow. They also take insufficient account of the waste and cost of sending mobile teams from Edinburgh or Glasgow to crucial economic areas like Aberdeen and Inverness.

― The Scottish Government has its own semi-independent taxation system, Revenue Scotland. However, HMRC’s Building Our Future proposals would violate many of the principles advocated by the Scottish Government as basic norms for a just tax administration. Moreover, and perhaps most significantly in the current political climate, we expect the proposed changes to interfere with the collection of the Scottish Rate of Income Tax, with consequences for funding public services in Scotland.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Common Weal analysis of GERS 2016-2017 reveals economic opportunities of independence

Stephen Richard — Mon, 06 Sep 2021 17:04:00 +0000

Common Weal analysis of GERS 2016-2017 reveals economic opportunities of independence

Primary Author or Creator:

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Mon, 06/09/2021 - 18:04

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Common Weal

Date Published:

11/08/17

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/COMMON-WEAL-ANALYSIS-OF-GERS…

Type of Resource:

Assessment report

Fast Facts

An independent Scotland could be better off to the tune of at least £7.5 billion in comparison to the figures in the 2017 GERS paper effectively cutting the deficit by over half. The very act of Scottish Independence would boost tax revenue by at least £7.5 billion per year.

More details

― The UK is a deeply unequal union and London continues to capture a greater and greater proportion of the wealthy of the state to the detriment of everywhere else.

― Scotland’s offshore economy continues to shrink even whilst onshore tax revenue has risen slightly

― However the growth in Scotland’s onshore economy more than offsets this loss.

― Relative low collection of direct tax revenue such as income tax and capital gains taxes remains an indicator of the economic inequalities of the UK.

― Whereas relatively high rates of collection of alcohol and tobacco revenue may be an ongoing indicator of higher stress and lower well-being in Scotland. This should be subject of further study.

― Scotland’s share of the UK’s debt interest payments now stand at £3.25 billion per year; more than the entire transport budget.

― Whilst GERS itself does not illustrate an independent Scotland’s finances, Common Weal has produced metrics which allow it to be estimated.

― The creation of formerly reserved government departments like the civil service, Central Bank and others will create thousands of jobs in Scotland and create more than £1.3 billion in revenue per year.

― Even assuming defence spending is maintained, basing more of it in Scotland would create additional tax revenue of at least £200 million per year.

― An allocation of debt and assets based on historical precedents would save Scotland around £2.5 billion per year in debt interest repayments.

― A more efficient approach to tax and customs would eliminate major flaws in the UK system and could help close the UK’s £120 billion per year tax gap. Even just a third of Scotland’s “share” of this gap would be worth £3.5 billion in revenue.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish economic performance

Scottish statistics

Language English

Common Weal submission to economic data consultation

Stephen Richard — Sun, 05 Sep 2021 17:43:27 +0000

Common Weal submission to economic data consultation

Primary Author or Creator:

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Sun, 05/09/2021 - 18:43

Publisher:

Common Weal

Date Published:

12/09/17

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Common-Weal-submission-to-ec…

Type of Resource:

consultation response

Fast Facts

Scottish Government economic data is inadequate and incomplete. There is a need for a Scottish Statistics Agency.

More details

― International examples of data provision have shown that there are benefits to both a highly centralised model for a statistics agency but also benefits to a decentralised model whereby various departments gather deep but very specific data. Which model best suits Scotland is therefore open to discussion.

― Across Scotland, the quality of data provision is decidedly mixed. Often, the data can only be obtained via subsets of UK data which can mean that data sample sizes become smaller than may be appropriate for rigorous policy-making.

― However in other areas, particularly areas directly initiated by Scottish statisticians, the detail of data can exceed that which is found elsewhere in the UK.

― In many cases, the increased costs of data provision will be offset either directly via better tax collection (especially in the case of customs and borders) or indirectly by more efficient allocation of resources.

― There is scope for measuring metrics outwith “traditional” metrics such as GDP. Examples like measuring equality and life satisfaction could help drive development of a Wellbeing Economy.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic data

Scottish Statistics Agency

Language English

Common Weal Inverness and InverYes – Consideration of the Sustainable Growth Commission Report

Stephen Richard — Sun, 05 Sep 2021 10:38:38 +0000

Common Weal Inverness and InverYes – Consideration of the Sustainable Growth Commission Report

Primary Author or Creator:

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Sun, 05/09/2021 - 11:38

Additional Author(s) / Creators

InverYes

Publisher:

Common Weal

Date Published:

02/09/18

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/InverYes-Consideration-of-th…

Type of Resource:

consultation response

Fast Facts

The Sustainable Growth Commission appears to be too heavily tied to a free market (neo-liberal) approach to economics.

More details

A study group comprised of members from Common Weal Inverness and InverYes undertook a detailed reading of the report published by the Sustainable Growth Commission and have collated their thoughts, opinions and recommendations ahead of attending the National Assemblies.

Concern was expressed that the Sustainable Growth Commission appeared to be too heavily tied to a free market (neo-liberal) approach to economics. There is a misleading neo-liberal economic storyline that states that governments are the same as businesses and households and must act like them and manage their financial affairs by ensuring that they ‘balance the books’ and live within their means. A technical discussion which attempted to tease out the issues of the neo-liberal orthodoxy and its direct consequences on public finances that results in savage cuts to both welfare spending and infrastructure investment set the background for the discussion on Parts C and B of the report.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Growth Commission

Sustainable Growth Commissio

Public finance

Free market economy

Language English

An Investment-Led Economic Development Framework For An Independent Scotland

Stephen Richard — Sat, 04 Sep 2021 16:26:31 +0000

An Investment-Led Economic Development Framework For An Independent Scotland

Primary Author or Creator:

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Sat, 04/09/2021 - 17:26

Publisher:

Common Weal

Date Published:

18/04/19

Category:

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

Scotland, if independent, could improve its performance across 12 key pillars of its economy. There are a number of economic theories beyond the current one used by the UK. An investment-led economy would include laying down the foundations of a Green New Deal.

More details

The report lays out ten packages of actions that Scotland could undertake – some of which could be started now, many of which would require independence – that would help move to an investment-led economy. Whilst this report is not in itself a prospectus for a Scottish “Green New Deal” these packages are all compatible with and would form the foundation of such a Green Deal.

The plans of action are:

Create a monetary and fiscal environment conducive to investment. During the development phase of Scotland’s independence, it will be recognised that an independent currency and strong monetary institutions are vital and that cutting deficits suppresses the economy and pushes deficits onto private and household sectors.
Strengthen the foundational economy. Scotland should prioritise core public needs such as energy, transport, infrastructure, and postal and communication services and should tackle growing problems in housing and food sectors with a much more interventionalist approach.
Build a public investment model. Led by the Scottish National Investment Bank, Scotland should set up a series of National Companies tasked with driving investment in a strategic way across public, civic and private sectors. A public stock exchange would support businesses seeking equity and local banking networks would support small and local businesses.
Produce an industrial strategy. Scotland’s industrial strategy would be designed to boost, develop and stimulate the productive economy and rebalance away from low-pay sectors. Key also would be anchoring strategies to maintain businesses in Scotland for the long term.
Invest in human capital. From industrial democracy and collective bargaining, through workers’ rights and social security, a Universal Basic Income and more recognition of unpaid labour, encouraging entrepreneurialism and creating a welcoming immigration strategy not solely based on economic reasons there is much that Scotland could do to focus attention on how well we live in this country rather than just how much we produce for our employers.
Implement a resource management strategy. Scotland’s resources are vast but many are exploited unsustainably or are being used in ways which benefit too few. Much better use of our land and marine assets would be prioritised.
Decentralise economic policy. Though not on anywhere near the magnitude of the UK as a whole, Scotland still suffers from regional economic inequalities. Development Councils – a radical form of local government – would be used to boost local ownership of development policy and help to stop over-concentration of economic activity within Scotland.
Reorient business support. Scotland should take a more strategic, value based approach to business support. Diversification of ownership models should be encouraged and the public sector should take an “entrepreneurial state” approach in many areas of the economy.
Do no harm. Scotland must take climate change seriously. Small tweaks to the current system or delaying action beyond the next election is no longer tenable. A Green New Deal should be developed and enacted. Instead of debt-fuelled consumption, a sharing economy with a much more circular approach should be built. “Reduce, repair, re-use and recycle” should replace “take, make, use and dump”.
Start with a boost. Setting up a new country will take a lot of work and will require a large sum of money invested to create the new services and infrastructure that Scotland currently lacks entirely or needs to vastly expand. A new country should not start life with a decade of deficit reduction at a time when the need for transformational investment will be at its more vital.

We believe that independence will be required to meet all of these goals and we believe that meeting these goals will be a reason to fight for independence. With these, we have created a vision of a Scotland to come which can not only meet the hopes and aspirations of its citizens but can bring them together in a shared enterprise of making all of our lives better.

Keywords

Universal Basic Income

Resource management

Economic policy

Language English

Resilient Scotland; Part Two

Stephen Richard — Sat, 04 Sep 2021 10:58:51 +0000

Resilient Scotland; Part Two

Primary Author or Creator:

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Sat, 04/09/2021 - 11:58

Date Published:

21/06/20

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Resilient-Scotland-Part-Two…

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

Creating a resilient Scotland covers the next Scottish Parliament. It provides the detail of how the transformation envisaged can be achieved quickly, with a closer look at our economy, society and democracy.

More details

This is the second part of a three-part plan for creating greater economic, social and environmental resilience in Scotland and focusses on the four- year period of the next Scottish Parliament. It contains too many individual recommendations to summarise all of them here. At the same time it does not cover a number of areas which require much more space to cover than is possible here – not least the need for a National Care System (which will be covered in a forthcoming Common Weal report). These are some of the key points:

Over this period Scotland should accelerate economic transformation by creating an industrial strategy for green reindustrialisation in Scotland, using the full set of policy tools available in Scotland to support green manufacturing and other forms of production.

This will not only create high-pay jobs and increase national prosperity,
it will also transform Scotland into a ‘circular economy’ in which our economic activity does not do damage to our environment – or to anyone else’s environment either.

To make this happen will require extensive public interventions in banking, infrastructure, energy, food, transport and training and organisational development, each designed to create the best possible condition for the transition to take place and to lead to the creation of new high-quality jobs as quickly as possible.

A National Pharmaceutical Company should be set up to provide Scotland’s NHS with inexpensive medicines and to act as a manufacturing hub more generally, producing high-quality medical equipment in Scotland – including PPE.

The Council Tax should be replaced with a fairer Property Tax which also taxes land, to finance local development and to incentivise the productive use of land

Scotland should undergo major democratic reform, particularly to introduce a dynamic system of local democracy, but also to move Scotland into a transformational new phase of participatory democracy. This should be accompanied by a much stronger commitment to a system of transparency and accountability and new ways of making policy.

This decentralisation will enable a much greater focus on both localism and ‘placemaking’. The Plan proposes specific action programmes for town regeneration and for a rural and coastal industrial strategy based around green reindustrialisation. This will involve major reform of the fishing industry in Scotland to bring jobs back to Scottish communities.

To enable all of this Scotland will need a radical programme of land reform to provide adequate access to essential natural resources which provide the basis for much of what is in this Plan.

The Plan then focusses on how to improve social and community cohesion, democratic and social participation and how to ensure that the sense of civic duty which was so evident during the Covid crisis is embedded into public life.

This will need a much greater focus on what really creates wellbeing, not least the need to move away from GDP as the primary measure of economic success and the wellbeing benefits of deconsumerisation.

This phase of the Plan also acts as an ‘incubator phase’ of a full Green New Deal. Much can be done under devolution and this is all covered in this report, but crucial things are not possible with the power of independence. The three big ones – decarbonising heating, electricity and transport – cannot be achieved under devolution. However, each of these involves large engineering projects which have a long lead time of three or four years. It is perfectly within the powers of devolution to get these projects shovel-ready.

However, this will represent the limits of what is possible in Scotland under devolution. At this point Common Weal believes that Scotland must choose either to continue on this economic and social path or to revert to following the economic and environmental strategy being pursued at a UK level. For this reason a detailed proposal for how Scottish independence will be achieved will be prepared and this will be put to the people of Scotland not later than year three of this Parliament. Those who support the objectives of this Plan but do not support independence will be encouraged to explain what steps they believe can then be taken.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Green reindustrialisation

Language English

Resilient Scotland Part Three

Stephen Richard — Sat, 04 Sep 2021 10:41:44 +0000

Resilient Scotland Part Three

Primary Author or Creator:

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Sat, 04/09/2021 - 11:41

Date Published:

21/06/20

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Resilient-Scotland-Part-Thre…

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

The final stage of the Resilient Scotland Plan runs from 2025 with Scotland becoming an independent country. By 2045, the plan will be complete and Scotland will have been transformed into a net zero-carbon country with a resilient economy that works for All of Us.

More details

The Resilient Scotland Plan provides extensive detail on a practicable, deliverable programme for achieving what everyone now says is necessary – a vibrant, green economy which creates good jobs and delivers economic fairness. It is well past the time where it is viable for individuals and organisations still to be talking about broadly supporting the principle and we are now racing past the point where vague aspirations and boiler-plate language should be accepted.

It is no good to talk about ‘green investment’ if, by now, we are not identifying where that investment should come from, who should pay for it and how, and where specifically that investment should be going. It is farcical to suggest that a bit more of what we’re currently doing is even close to sufficient. Pick your crisis – Covid or the environment. Either in themselves requires an expenditure of effort and a level of investment that societies make only every few generations. Combine them and the case for being that generation is overwhelming.

What creates environmental vulnerability is the same thing that creates economic and social vulnerability. It is the economy in which we were promised all failures would be ended through growth – yet it is the economy where 40 years of growth have actually accelerated the failures and caused an increase in the rate at which the economy ‘falls over’ in the face of even minor crises. It is time for Scotland to use its eyes and its brains. If we are promised that growth fixes everything. If, after 40 years of growth, so many things got worse. If that economy gets more vulnerable the more it stretches supply chains and the more it extracts. If so, how can more of the same achieve resilience? Resilience is not made out of vulnerability, it is the alternative to vulnerability.

If we have learned anything through the Covid crisis it is that half measures and hoping for the best achieve next to nothing. You do it – or you don’t do it. This Plan is something serious we can do.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Economic resilience

Green Economy

Green new deal

Language English

Mapping Economic Potential in North-East Glasgow

Stephen Richard — Sat, 04 Sep 2021 09:31:31 +0000

Mapping Economic Potential in North-East Glasgow

Primary Author or Creator:

Mhairi Love

Stephen Richard Sat, 04/09/2021 - 10:31

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Common Weal, Anne McLaughlin

Publisher:

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

April 2017

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Mapping-Economic-Potential-I…

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

The case for asset based community development in the North-East of Glasgow through mapping derelict and vacant sites in the area and looking at how the Community Empowerment Act could be utilised.

More details

― North East Glasgow is an area of multiple deprivation, intensified by systemic neglect of investment and development.

― It has suffered a “toxic combination” of neglect at local authority level and successive policies from the Scottish Government of overlooking the area in favour of top down “regeneration” schemes that have been described as “capitulating to neoliberalism”.

― This report has mapped and photographed areas of underused, derelict and neglected land in North East Glasgow

― It makes the case that communities should be empowered and enabled to take over and develop these areas in ways that best benefit them.

― Tools like Asset Transfer Requests already exist to make this possible but could be made easier to use.

― To make this proposal a success, resources have to be put in place to make sure that communities understand their rights and that landowners understand their obligations.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Glasgow

Economic development

Community Empowerment Act

Language English

New GERS data fundamentally makes the case for Scottish Independence

Vicky Fairley — Thu, 02 Sep 2021 14:10:42 +0000

New GERS data fundamentally makes the case for Scottish Independence

Primary Author or Creator:

MacIntyre-Kemp, Gordon

Vicky Fairley Thu, 02/09/2021 - 15:10

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Business for Scotland

Alternative Published Date

August 2021

Category:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/new-gers-data-fundamentally-makes-the-case-…

Type of Resource:

business network website article

Fast Facts

It is clear that Scotland being an economic region of the UK is what is holding Scotland back from reaching that economic potential. The author sets out what the latest GERS figures represent and how they can be misleading in terms of Scotland's capabilities as an independent nation.

More details

GERS paints a picture of Scotland’s economy as a result of that economy largely being controlled by Westminster. It does not tell us how an independent Scotland would perform, as in that case, the Scottish Government would have the power to make very different fiscal and monetary choices.

Scotland’s overall budget is set by Westminster. 70% of its revenues are controlled by Westminster and 40% of its spending. Scotland possesses natural wealth unequalled by any other small northern European country. The article compares GDP figures from GERS and benchmarks those against independent Northern European nations closest in size to Scotland and demonstrates how Scotland is constrained by Westminster's mismanagement of the economy.

It highlights Norway's $1trillion sovereign oil fund while a far larger UK is £2 trillion in debt and how Ireland's economic growth has significantly outperformed the UK's by almost 4 times since the 2008 financial crash.

Without Scotland’s advantages, those nations’ economies outperform Scotland overall and also the UK on a per head basis. It is clear that Scotland being an economic region of the UK is what is holding Scotland back from reaching that economic potential.

It concludes that GERS provides indisputable proof that Scotland could be significantly wealthier if it were an independent nation.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Scotland will qualify for S&P's highest economic assessment, says Standard & Poors

Stephen Richard — Mon, 16 Aug 2021 07:35:36 +0000

Scotland will qualify for S&P's highest economic assessment, says Standard & Poors

Primary Author or Creator:

The Scottish Reserve Bank

Stephen Richard Mon, 16/08/2021 - 08:35

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Tim Rideout

Alternative Published Date

2014

Category:

https://www.reservebank.scot/economic-assessment

Type of Resource:

News Item

Fast Facts

Scotland’s wealth levels are comparable to those of AAA-listed nations and that, as an independent country - even without North Sea oil - Scotland will qualify for S&P's highest economic assessment.

More details

The report, published in February 2014 prior to the Scottish Independence Referendum in September that year, concluded that the Scottish economy is rich and relatively diversified, with 2014 per capita GDP estimated to be US$47,369, higher than AAA-rated Germany at US$43,855, higher than AA-rated UK at US$41,006 and higher than AA-rated New Zealand at US$ 39,840.

“Even excluding North Sea output and calculating per capita GDP only by looking at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment,” said Standard & Poors.

“Higher GDP per capita, in our view, gives a country a broader potential tax and funding base to draw from, which supports creditworthiness.

“We would expect Scotland to benefit from all the attributes of an investment-grade sovereign credit characterised by its wealthy economy (roughly the size of New Zealand's), high-quality human capital, flexible product and labour markets and transparent institutions.”

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Language English

Resilient Scotland; Part One

Stephen Richard — Sun, 15 Aug 2021 16:00:56 +0000

Resilient Scotland; Part One

Primary Author or Creator:

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Sun, 15/08/2021 - 17:00

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category:

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Resilient-Scotland-Part-One…

Banking

Type of Resource:

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

The Scottish National Investment Bank should act as a bank and capitalise from sources such as pension funds. It should lend to the public and the private sector. Public procurement should have the public policy goal of supporting Scottish business and achieving the maximum number of manufacturing jobs.

More details

The borrowing cap for the Scottish Parliament should be removed or lifted substantially so public expenditure can be used where needed; but, more importantly the Scottish National Investment Bank should be given full dispensation to act as a bank and thus capitalise from sources such as pension funds and lend to the public as well as private sector. Public procurement should be entirely reprofiled with the public policy goal of supporting Scottish business and achieving the maximum number of manufacturing jobs.

By using Resilience Economics we can replace an economic toolbox with few policy options which creates inequality, environmental harm and repeated economic crises with one based on a much more balanced set of economic theories which prioritise public-good outcomes and will result in a more stable economy. This can be made to work under devolution if we focus on unlocking Scotland’s economic underdevelopment and support this not with bailouts for existing businesses but transition packages linked to reprofiled public spending and sustainable investment from the Scottish National Investment Bank.

This is underpinned by a series of over-arching policy goals which explain what kind of economy we are seeking to achieve; replacing an unhealthy focus on GDP growth with these will make clear the kind of economic change Scotland is pursuing. Scotland is inordinately well positioned to achieve this because of the current underdevelopment of our copious natural and human resources.

To achieve this we must do the following: Set up a Transition Academy to help policy-makers adapt to the new agenda. Set up a Diversification Agency to support new and existing businesses to grasp the opportunities being unlocked. Create a guaranteed retraining programme for those who lose employment. Reprofile public procurement spending to support this transition Begin a major programme of public rental house-building linked to an integrated supply chain strategy. Create a mortgage-to-rent scheme for households at risk of losing their home. Introduce a tourism rescue package with all citizens being given a £100 voucher for a stay at a Scottish hotel Introduce a similar voucher scheme for the hospitality sector. Develop a form of Universal Basic Income for artists. Devise plans for a future Festival of Scotland to support the entertainment and events sector. Create an industrial strategy to unlock new economic activity in food production, materials manufacture, light manufacturing, housing, energy, hydrogen, land, design and innovation.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish National Investment Bank

Language English

Support for Independence drops significantly if Scotland were to join Euro

Olanna — Sat, 07 Aug 2021 17:13:57 +0000

Support for Independence drops significantly if Scotland were to join Euro

Primary Author or Creator:

Edward Malnick

Olanna Sat, 07/08/2021 - 18:13

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Redfield and Wilton Strategies

Publisher:

The Sunday Telegraph

Date Published:

07/08/21

Category:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/07/support-independence-drops-sign…

Type of Resource:

Newspaper article

Fast Facts

40% Scots less likely to support Independence if Scotland had to join the Euro.

More details

Survey of 1,000 Scottish adults for the Sunday Telegraph by Redfield and Wilton Strategies.

Nicola Sturgeon announced that following successful Independence vote, Scotland would join EU. EU declared that Scotland would have to join the Euro. Sturgeon says this should be open to negotiation. Survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies found that 40% of Scots would be less likely to support Independence if Scotland were to replace the Pound with the Euro.

Full Document (link)

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Economics

Euro

Voting strategies

Language English

Resilience Economics, an Economic Model for Scotland’s Recovery.

Stephen Richard — Sat, 31 Jul 2021 10:32:59 +0000

Resilience Economics, an Economic Model for Scotland’s Recovery.

Primary Author or Creator:

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Sat, 31/07/2021 - 11:32

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category: