Economic Implications for the United Kingdom of Scottish Independence

There can be no definitive answer to the question of whether an independent Scotland would be more prosperous, less prosperous or as prosperous as Scotland is now. Our report identifies clear threats to Scotland's prosperity under independence; while the upside is uncertain. 

Continued use of sterling by an independent Scotland in monetary union with the rest of the UK is the stated preference of the Scottish Government. But it would raise complex problems of cross-border monetary policy, multiple financial regulators and taxpayer exposure and could only come about, if at all, on terms agreed by the UK Government. Arrangements should be clear before the referendum. But the proposal for the Scottish Government to exert some influence over the Bank of England, let alone the rest of the UK exchequer, is devoid of precedent and entirely fanciful. 

Dismantling the current fiscal union would result in a loss of risk-sharing mechanisms between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK. This would be an adverse consequence for the citizens of both states, but particularly for people in Scotland given the relative size of the two countries. 

An independent Scotland would need to have a double taxation agreement with the rest of the UK and to negotiate tax treaties and similar agreements with a range of countries.

here is not enough information about the defence policy of an independent Scotland to enable Scottish voters to make an informed judgment in next year's referendum. We recommend that the Scottish Government should make a sustained effort to clarify the issues before the vote, giving an indication of its expected defence budget, military establishment, scale of procurement and impact on Scotland's workforce skills base, as well as indicating the terms of Scotland's application to join NATO. This would help Scottish voters assess the employment and economic as well the security implications of an independent defence policy