The UK-Australia trade deal...has sold out agriculture, forestry and fishing industries in Scotland and the wider UK. A report on the impact of the trade deal by the UK Department of International Trade reveals those industries will suffer a £94m hit from the deal.
Our sensitivity analysis varies some of the main modelling parameters used in the analysis. However, it does not account for the full range of factors that could determine the impact of the agreement. It suggests the estimated impact on long-run GDP could vary between 0.06% and 0.10%. However, as the analysis does not capture important sources of uncertainty, the actual long-run impacts could fall outside of this range. The point estimates and ranges presented do not represent precise estimates: they represent an indication of the direction of impacts and broad orders of magnitude. The sources of uncertainty are discussed in section 7. Consumers and businesses – including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – could beneft from the immediate removal of 95% of existing tariffs on UK imports of Australian goods. Most of the remaining tariffs gradually reduce to zero over time. This boosts access and increases choice for businesses seeking to source inputs from Australia. However, this will also open up some UK businesses to increased competition from Australian exporters. Annual duties on UK goods exports to Australia could fall by around £116 million annually.7 SMEs are well-represented in sectors that beneft most from the FTA