The UK is in long term relative economic decline, falling further and further behind countries of a similar size and stage of development as Scotland. The choice that Scotland faces is to remain part of the declining UK economy, or to realise agency and take responsibility for improving the performance of the Scottish economy.
UK economic growth has lagged behind the average for large and small advanced economies over the last four decades (pre-Covid), and in particular over the last two decades when the economic growth gap widened.
The economic growth gap between the UK and the small advanced economy group is particularly large, with all of the small advanced economies experiencing growth greater than the UK in the last two decades. On average the small advanced economies experienced cumulative economic growth that was double that of the UK between 1999 and 2019.
In 1980 the UK’s GDP per capita was in line with or exceeded most advanced economies. By 2019, the gap between UK GDP per capita and the small advanced economies average had increased to 38% and the UK had fallen to just below the average for large advanced economies (having been 13% ahead in 1980).
In 1999, only four of the 12 small advanced economies (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland) had a GDP per capita that was higher than the UK and by 2019, 11 of the 12 did.
In 2019, the gap between the small economy average and the UK was more than $16,200 (£12,700) per person.