Is this the end of constitutional polarisation?
While the Hamilton result marks a powerful moment of disruption, it remains unclear whether this will translate into longer-term traction. What it does confirm, however, is that Scottish politics – once seen as unusually structured and stable – is entering an era of growing volatility, where insurgents like Reform can no longer be dismissed out of hand.
The SNP’s attempt to shift from a constitutional to a socio-cultural, progressive-versus-reactionary confrontation has stumbled. Labour’s hoped-for resurgence appears more brittle than assured. Reform UK, while organisationally unstable, has become the wildcard – a disruptive actor in a system that no longer has clear structuring poles.
This fragmentation carries risks. Without structured polarisation, Scottish politics may slide into unstructured volatility. A disruptive polariser like Reform UK could reshape the system without facing a coherent counterforce. In such a scenario, the rules of the political game are not just changing – they may be dissolving altogether.