Referenda talk concentrates on process rather than substance, misses the big picture here of democracy, and overlooks the nuances of public opinion.
The more brusque the UK Government is of Scotland’s indyref, the more it reinforces popular support for Scotland’s right to decide, strengthens the mandate argument, and critically, makes independence more synonymous with democracy.
This latter point is fundamental. In so doing independence becomes strengthened and the case for the union weakened and undermined. Not only that, the entire rationale for the union would be completely and utterly changed – to the detriment of the union. Ciaran Martin, lead negotiator for the UK Government on the agreement on the 2014 vote, has stated that the UK Government denying a democratic request for an indyref with popular support changes the union from “a union of consent” to “a union upheld by law” – narrowly interpretated by the UK Government.
Independence supporters need to see this bigger picture. The UK and Scottish Governments implicitly know this and, that underneath the public rhetoric their main difference beyond who can call such a referendum is the question of timing.
The UK Government know they cannot indefinitely hold out and deny Scotland a vote if a consistent majority of Scots want one. There is no foreseeable future whereby Scotland is held in the union as a prisoner against our collective will. Such an eventuality, even for the shortest period, makes the case for independence and completely undermines the case for the union.
This is a live, ongoing issue. Scotland will have its indyref, if not in 2023, at some point in the future, and more than likely, sooner than later. Underneath all the noise, charge and counter-charge are many thoughtful voices who were part of Better Together in 2014 and are still pro-union, recognise this basic fact privately: that sometime soon Scotland will have another vote to decide this issue.
We need to understand what this is all about. It is not about process or timing, but the principle of Scotland’s right to decide its collective future, the meaning of democracy and democratic legitimacy. That focus should never fall from people’s horizon.