Which economic, political, or social factors will be important in determining independence or deciding to remain.
Michael Keating’s notion of plurinationalism, used in Plurinational Democracies, is a useful concept to understand the nature of national identity within minority nations, such as Scotland or Catalonia. However, it cannot be used to determine when independence movements will or will not take place. It did not have the effect it was expected to have on independence movements at the time it was written in 2001.
There are other factors that can be more relevant than national identity trends which may prompt nations to seek independence from their sovereign states earlier than may have been anticipated. While independence movements cannot take place without these minority national identities still being 92 present, it is not the sole determinant of independence movements.
While both Scotland and Catalonia’s independence movements have not been successful thus far, it will be interesting to see which economic, political, or social factors may prompt either of these nations to succeed in their independence movements or perhaps lead them to determine that independence may no longer need to be sought. If either or both of these independence movements succeed, it will be worth noting the potential effects it may then have on other minority nations that may choose to seek independence in the future.