The dissolution of Czechoslovakia ... caused limited disruption. This experience offers insights for Scotland as it considers independence from the rest of the UK.
"One clear lesson is that if two currencies are expected to diverge in the future, the anticipation of this change can create an immediate incentive to transfer funds to whichever country is expected to end up with the stronger currency. The cost of such speculation is essentially zero: it is as easy as transferring one’s account balance. As long as the common currency survives, the holder of funds deposited in either country can continue to use them in either country. But once the separation happens, the profit (or loss) will be equal to the rate of devaluation (or appreciation). ...
"Voters may not, in reality, keep the politicians accountable for their pre-independence promises. As a result, political developments may gain their own dynamics as the disintegration of the union unfolds, which could be difficult to foresee in advance. ...
"bilateral trade is bound to fall after disintegration, some of this is likely to be due to trade diversion, not trade destruction. ... It is possible for a small country to build new partnerships with larger trading blocs like the EU relatively quickly. ... Scotland and the rest of the UK could prosper and maintain vibrant economic ties with each other [as the Czech and Slovak repulics have].