The Bottom Line

Whilst much has been said about the speculated costs of independence, there has been insufficient attention paid to the very real costs of a lack of independence. Put another way, there is a price, we argue a heavy price, to be paid by Scotland for its dependence on the UK state and resultant lack of agency.

What has become increasingly apparent since 2014 is that the UK economy is in a decades-long economic decline. There is evidence that the decline is accelerating and the negative economic impacts of Brexit will increase the risks of economic dependence on the UK. Scotland is not fulfilling its economic potential as part of the declining UK.

In contrast, the success of many small economies shows what can be emulated by an independent Scotland. There are many examples that show what is possible. The success stories of Ireland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, New Zealand, Croatia and Estonia each tell a different story, but there is a common thread, which is that strategic decisions made in the national interest have led to economic benefits.

The Bottom Line aims to invigorate and elevate the debate on the economics of Scottish independence by setting out:

– how and why independence will deliver economic benefits

– the costs to Scotland associated with economic dependence on the UK

This includes a quantitative analysis that gathers and reviews the evidence of how the UK economy is performing. This considers the traditional economic measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also wider measures such as sustainability and wellbeing.