Getting ahead of the curve What next for Scotland and the Union?

So what of the future? Is the inevitable outcome that the UK Government, of whatever party, will always be playing catch up with the SNP? Will the forthcoming EU referendum – depending on its outcome – be the catalyst for the SNP to argue the case for a second independence referendum sooner rather than later? And would the outcome for that referendum be a Yes vote – as suggested by some recent opinion polls?

I don’t know, but I don’t think it has to be that way. I do know – and here I should stress that I am speaking personally and not on behalf of the British Academy – that, for unionist politicians and those who believe in the future of the United Kingdom, doing nothing is not an option.

The time for incrementalism is over. Playing catch up with the SNP has not worked and probably will not work. The time is ripe now to get ahead of the curve and so help to secure the Union. I would argue that the time has come for the United Kingdom to make a big, bold, and generous offer to the people of Scotland.

That offer needs to be – whatever people choose to call it – full fiscal autonomy, Devo Max plus or, in the language of Gladstone, Home Rule for Scotland within the United Kingdom. What would that look like? In summary:

• Full devolution of tax and spend to the Scottish Parliament and Government, except for reserved areas
• Full responsibility for domestic policy and spending
• Full responsibility for energy policy and activity on and off shore
• Agreement on certain shared responsibilities within the United Kingdom
• All to be set within the framework of the continuance of the United Kingdom as a constitutional monarchy
• A shared economic area with monetary policy set by the UK central bank’s monetary policy committee on which Scotland’s views should be represented 
• Defence and the overall conduct of foreign policy to be run by the United Kingdom but with full consultation on key areas of interest to Scotland

And such an arrangement would need to come within the context of three conditions.

First, the economic condition. This arrangement would, by definition, spell the end of the Barnett formula as it applies to Scotland. ... And Scotland would make a payment to the UK Government for UK-wide service and provision (just as the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands do now).

Second, the political condition. Giving a far greater degree of independence within the United Kingdom to Scotland does have a quid pro quo in terms of reduced political power for Scotland within the United Kingdom parliament at Westminster. ... In my view the best, and fairest, answer is to reduce the number of Scottish MPs in return for Home Rule. ...

Third, the constitutional condition. This issue has to be put to bed for a generation, not for a year or for five years. ... An agreement to Home Rule must stipulate that it is for the long term. ...We need to identify and celebrate the issues that help us think and behave as a Union: 

• the Queen; the Armed Forces;
• the welfare state;
• the National Health Service;
• economic stability;
• the BBC;
• the UK passport;
• the Olympic Games.

We need more of these, many more. And we need to celebrate all the benefits that a strong proud country such as Scotland can get through Home Rule within the wider United Kingdom. Those in the United Kingdom who believe in Scotland remaining a part of the United Kingdom will also need to do all they can to ensure than any agreement on Home Rule is sustainable. A long-term agreement to Home Rule must stipulate that it is just that – for the long term – even if that needs to be enshrined in a new Treaty of Union.