Unionists need to win the economic argument in the eyes of voters; for nationalists, on the other hand, a draw might well be enough.
Many voters currently either say that they do not know what independence might bring or indicate that they are inclined to the view that it will not make much difference.
This is potentially a crucial group. Contrary to what one might anticipate, they are not evenly divided between those who support independence and those who back the Union. Rather, according to Opinium, they are nearly two to one in favour of Yes – just as indeed they were in 2014. For some voters the feeling that independence will not make much difference either way may well be enough for them to back independence – much as it was sometimes enough for people to vote in 2016 in favour of leaving the European Union. Unionists need to win the economic argument in the eyes of voters; for nationalists, on the other hand, a draw might well be enough.