The latest estimate [2081] suggests that inequality in Scotland is now higher that it was in 2008, moving it closer to the inequality score for Great Britain than the Nordic one.
But inequality is not just about income. The experience of inequality is driven by a whole range of factors that affect well-being over a lifetime, including access to employment, the quality of the environment and exposure to crime, among other things.
Inequality in exposure to crime has fallen in England... There is no significant change in Scotland.
Environmental inequality in England has fallen between 2008 and 2018, but remained much the same in Scotland. This has led to both having similar levels of inequality.
So, despite the political rhetoric and aspiration, there is no clear evidence as yet that trends in inequality in Scotland are improving compared to England. In fact, for some measures, things have been improving more in England than in Scotland. One reason for this is the fall in the concentration of poverty in inner cities, partly due to gentrification. This may have helped reduce the inequality in exposure to crime and air pollution, which tend to be higher near the centre of cities, particularly in larger cities in England.
All this raises some tricky questions for the next 20 years of devolution. What does Scotland need to do to reduce inequality to the levels of the Nordic countries? In 1999, the Scottish parliament was given the powers to raise (or lower) income tax by up to three pence in the pound. Even if there is the political will to implement a full three pence rise in income tax, would it be enough to make any significant progress? Or will other factors, such as the suburbanisation of poverty – where poorer people are pushed out to the periphery of cities – dominate the experience of inequality?
It seems likely that more radical changes, such as significant redistribution of income, labour market reforms and major investment in deprived areas, would be needed to bring Scottish inequality close to Nordic levels. But is there really an appetite for such reform? And then there’s the trickiest question of all: is the only realistic way for Scotland to pursue the Nordic nirvana to become fully independent?