While there has been an increase in the number who think that immigration is too high, voters appear to be abandoning the Conservatives for a broader set of reasons.
Reform is more popular among those 2019 Tories who think that there is too much immigration. In contrast, Labour scores somewhat better among those who think the level of immigration is appropriate. But in combination these two patterns mean that, overall, the level of loyalty to the Conservatives only differs a little between those who think that immigration is too high and those who take a different view – a point we have made before. The issue appears to influence how 2019 Tories defect rather than whether they defect.
Moreover, it is far from evident that immigration necessarily accounts significantly for the recent rise in support for Reform. True, support for the party is up four points among those who think immigration is too high, a group that, as we have seen, is now rather more numerous. However, support is also up by a similar amount among those who do not think that immigration is too high. Most recently, at least, Reform has been picking up support irrespective of people’s views on the subject. It seems that the sources of Tory discontent stretch well beyond the confines of immigration.