Migration is an integral part of a globalised world. Resourcing a constructive approach with evidence and opportunities for dialogue will be key to making it a success.
The end of free movement is the single most significant change in recent immigration history yielding a far more restrictive immigration regime for EU nationals arriving in the UK. It is change that has been effected against the wishes of Scotland, in terms of Scotland’s majority vote against leaving the EU in 2016 and the Scottish government’s repeated support for retaining free movement, welcoming EU nationals and advocating for automatic recognition rather than the registration requirement of the EU Settlement Scheme – Christina Boswell’s chapter covers more on this. The repercussions of the end of free movement and the adequacy of the settlement scheme for EU nationals will become more apparent over the coming months and years.
We should also remember that for non-EU nationals the UK’s immigration system has become more liberal. In his chapter, Jonathan Portes estimates that the about half of all full-time jobs should in principle qualify for visa applications, making the new system as liberal as those in most major developed economies. In many ways the difficulty is more related to the distribution of those jobs geographically – with more remote rural areas generally having fewer visa qualifying jobs.
In terms of salary levels, the main divide is between London and the South East and the rest of the UK, rather than between the constituent UK nations – although David Bell’s data shows that, at aggregate level, wages in Scotland pushed past UK levels in 2020. The desire in Scotland to diverge from the more restrictionist aspects of the UK immigration policy agenda remains prominent. Consequently, several contributors note the options for Scotland within the current devolution settlement to attract and retain migrants post-Brexit. These include making the most expansive use of the new system, for instance by promoting use of the shortage occupation lists or paying fees and costs related to the points-based system. Another possibility is to maximise Scotland’s use of new visa routes such as graduate visas and those for British overseas nationals from Hong Kong. And finally, promoting Scotland’s attractiveness as a migration destination in a wider range of source countries and developing reception and integration services to better support retention where possible.
One helpful approach is to consider what the scope for action is. Softening attitudes to migration offer greater scope for more liberal action – though whether this is acted upon is another question. Heather Rolfe and Sunder Katwala’s analysis of public attitudes show on what issues and to what extent attitudes in Scotland are more liberal than those in other parts of the UK. They note the likely importance of clear messages from parliamentarians and council leaders on the value of migration and the impact of a more positive media discourse on migration and these do need to be recognised and commended. As a number of contributors point out Scotland is not immune to the factors that drive anti-immigrant hostility elsewhere. 4 One sobering finding of their analysis is how limited public awareness is of demographic challenges and the role migration can play in meeting them. Looking ahead it is probable that the composition of migrant inflows to Scotland will undergo a shift towards more migrants arriving from outside the EU. We should expect to see migrants arriving in Scotland from a wider range of countries and without the flexibility and the protections that characterised free movement. A key question will be how service providers and community supports adjust. Rebecca Kay’s chapter explores some of the challenges, and suggests new ways of thinking about integration service provision. Making those adjustments will be critical to ensuring migration works well for both migrants and the communities they join.