Scottish independence borders and trade.
Trading in sterling for a transitional period would mean goods from Scotland will avoid currency exchange issues. If the UK doesn’t sort its borders with the EU, the resulting fall in the value of sterling will mean that trade with the rest of the UK increases, not decreases. Scotland will be the only nation from which rUK can afford to import. Where else would the rUK get the oil, electricity and food it needs from? It will be cheaper and just as easy to import from Scotland.
Won’t there be tariffs on some goods going between Scotland and England? If so, there would also be tariffs between rUK and the rest of Europe/the world, so that would not disadvantage Scotland/rUK trade.
The SNP has stated they plan to trade in sterling for a currency transition period, and if the hard borders persist and the UK economy sinks then sterling will drop in value and make Scottish goods significantly cheaper to import to the rUK than goods made in countries that don’t trade in sterling. Assuming that sterling falls in value by about 10%, that will make Scottish exports 10% cheaper to the EU single market and that would start an exporting and manufacturing jobs boom.
WHAT about freedom of movement? New members of the EU have to sign up to the Schengen Agreement unless they have a pre-existing freedom of movement agreement with a nation that isn’t in Schengen (this is why Ireland isn’t in it – it has a long-standing free movement deal with the UK). It isn’t legally possible for the EU to refuse Scotland the same deal. So freedom of movement with rUK will be maintained despite being in the EU whilst also having the same freedom of movement of people, goods and finance we enjoyed as part of the EU before Brexit – but without Schengen.
Will there have to be border posts? No. With the right agreement border checks can be electronic, pretty seamless and not physical. Yes, there would be more paperwork, but to export to the EU the same paperwork would be required and so companies that trade outside of Scotland would be on top of that.
By the time Scotland becomes independent, the confusion over borders will have been cleared up and an independent Scotland in the EU would have the same border arrangement with the rest of the UK as the rest of the EU, but not be required to join the full Schengen Agreement. Scotland would also have access to the EU single market and that would lead to an exporting jobs boom.
If the UK cannot sort out its Brexit border chaos by independence day, then the UK economy will be in free fall and Scotland will need to escape the UK to avoid economic collapse.
Trading in sterling for a transitional period would mean goods from Scotland will avoid currency exchange issues, and if the UK doesn’t sort its borders then the subsequent fall in the value of sterling should mean that trade with the rest of the UK increases, not decreases, as Scotland will be the only nation from which rUK can afford to import. Where else would the rUK get the oil, electricity and food it needs from if it was cheaper and just as easy to import from the country next door?