No new oil and gas fields can be approved for development. Given the right policies, a just transition can generate more than three jobs in clean industries for every North Sea oil job at risk
The First Minister claims that early closure of North Sea production would lead to increased imports of more carbon intensive fossil fuels, but this ‘carbon leakage’ argument does not hold water. To begin with, justice and equity require that wealthier countries with higher capacity to support the transition and lower dependence on fossil fuel production – like the UK – phase it out more rapidly.
Additionally, support for the fossil fuel industry – including for CCS – comes at the expense of renewable energy, effectively slowing down the shift to meeting Scotland’s demand with renewable sources. This argument also ignores efforts to reduce demand and increase energy efficiency, and forgets the abysmal record of UK North Sea oil companies at tackling preventable emissions.
Finally, investment in fossil fuel infrastructure now locks us into oil and gas for decades, pushing the UK closer to a ‘deferred collapse’, whereby delayed action and worsening climate impacts forces a sudden and chaotic shutdown, pushing many workers out of work in a short space of time.
To keep within 1.5ºC, in line with equity and climate justice, Scotland needs a just phase-out policy for oil and gas extraction, based on a managed winding down of production in this decade, shaped by affected workers and communities to ensure a just transition, and leaving some of the 6.55 billion barrels in the ground. Given the right policies, a just transition can generate more than three jobs in clean industries for every North Sea oil job at risk. The barriers are not technical, they’re political.
A rational, precautionary and cost-effective approach requires the Scottish Government to end its support for MER, and urge the UK Government to do the same, while redirecting financial support from fossil fuels and CCS to a just transition to a fully renewable Scotland.