For the first time in eight years, Scotland will have an election that is not first and foremost about Scottish secession from the United Kingdom. Nevertheless, understanding the dynamics of the constitutional debate in Scotland, and particularly the SNP’s failure to secure a second secessionist referendum and the disarming of the SNP’s most powerful electoral narratives, remains crucial for understanding how we came to this place in Scottish politics.
Throughout the 2010s, the SNP came to dominate Scottish politics thanks to three factors: perceptions that the party provided competent government; desire to have a strong bulwark against the Conservative UK Government in London, and polarisation on the question of Scottish secession. Since 2022, each of these have unravelled.